Wave E of the Leewards

Gustywind · #41 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:53 am

Yeah Cycloneye absolutely, good post, we should keep in my mind that(Jeanne)has hit Guadeloupe as a severe TD with a few muslides, heavy rains and big flooding, strong gusty winds near 40kts, hopefully localized mainly on the western side of the island. And lot of people was panicked due to the late alerts put by the Meteo-France.
As you wrote it , it's interresting to see how...this thing seems gaining lot of convection very quicker today, no doubts we're approching the heart of the season :bday:

perk · #42 Postby **perk** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:03 am

boca wrote:If this becomes an invest it will be interesting where the track will be.The 06Z GFS has it coming to Florida, But a cold front is also in the mix. What are you feelings on this?

Looking at the latest GFS run ,this system may be far enough west to miss the weakness in the ridge.Some of the other model show less weakness than forecast by the GFS.

Typhoon_Willie · #43 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:06 am

seems to be increasing in cloud coverage so far. Here is the link.

Chacor · #44 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:08 am

Not yet an invest... this goes in TT, not the active forum.

flwxwatcher · #45 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:10 am

I see that wave that had a large envelope but no convection is starting to flare up.. I still have a gut feeling that this wave is something to watch the coming days. The Atlantic Basin is waking up.

#46 Postby **windstorm99** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:18 am

Gustywind · #47 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:18 am

Typhoon_Willie wrote"seems to be increasing in cloud coverage so far. Here is the link".

Yeah, the convection is increasing nicely once again for an hour or even more!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv.jpg
On this sat pic , looking much more concentrated with a bulk of convection beginning to grown steadily!
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

#48 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:21 am

Good morning, friends and EC neighbors! Welcome, gustywind from Guadeloupe!!!

Luis, you are dead-on about Jeanne. This circulation certainly got my attention this morning when I pulled up a sat loop. It's in a prime spot - low shear, etc. and I'll be keeping an eye on it today!

Sanibel · #49 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:22 am

Looks like a center of circulation developing near 9N-31W on that loop.

Gustywind · #50 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:25 am

Hi Bvigal nice to see you ! Be welcomed this morning :wink:

Agree with you Bvigal something to watch, conditions don't looking bad but quite good,i will monitor this in the next couple hours for sure! :spam:

#51 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:29 am

Here is a pic of Jeanne while still an invest - shortly before becoming TD11 in 2004.

#52 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:59 am

12Z NAM...Yes it;s the nam but you can clearly see the storm closing on the loop and heading towards the Bahamas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Sanibel · #53 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:12 am

Except it should be a much deeper hurricane than that after coming all the way from Cape Verde.

#54 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:14 am

I never use for intensity just synoptics....

Sanibel · #55 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:16 am

That could be the september monster I've been fearing for a while now. :eek:

DESTRUCTION5 · #56 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:19 am

Sanibel wrote:That could be the september monster I've been fearing for a while now.

I think its picking up the wave at 55 not 31...

Sanibel · #57 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:28 am

55W feature looks like a blow-off wave to me.

Zardoz · #58 Postby **Zardoz** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:39 am

gatorcane wrote:looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

Yep, I think it is.

flwxwatcher · #59 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:54 am

looks like it is ex 98L...is it not?

I think that wave near 55W is a different wave . Its a wave that has had a rather large envelope and no convection that has been tracking steadily across the Atlantic. What was left of 98L had been sitting pretty much stationary and I think the large envelope of this wave absorbed anything that may have been left of 98L.IMHO. Then again I may be wrong.

Either way, I think its something that needs to be watched .

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:58 am

You got that right.Ex 98L was absorbed by the more bigger wave envelope.

Wave E of the Leewards

Re: Interesting developments E of the Leewards

Disturbance east of Guadeloupe

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