Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, on the SW Caribbean- JB video, not too much detail, but 1) Hijo de Humberto not a sure thing, too much moisture taken out, low level too weak, best it can be expected to do is maybe become a TD or minimal TS just before landfall somewhere in South Texas.

JB showed September 7, 1961 500 mb map, very similar to forecast map this weekend, upper low North of Greater Antilles sort of merges with piece of polar trough that splits off, pulls up disturbance from SW Caribbean.


JB did not say a very large major hurricane that brough wind gusts to hurricane force to nearly the entire coast of Texas. He hasn't pulled the trigger on this, and he has backed away from Humberto the Sequel somewhat.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just to elaborate on what JB is not predicting yet. From NWS HGX web site

CARLA (Cat. 4 Hurricane - September 11th landfall)
Carla was a severe hurricane which made landfall near Port Lavaca, bringing flooding from her storm surge 10 miles inland. Originating in the Caribbean Sea, Carla moved slowly across the Gulf, made a small loop east of Corpus Christi, and came ashore near Matagorda Bay with a 22' storm surge. Carla had 150 mph sustained winds, 175 mph gusts, and a central pressure of 27.49". Rainfall totals ranged from 19" at Votan, near Beaumont, to 1.08" at Brownsville. As may happen in large slow moving hurricanes, the surge was higher in the bays than at the coastline, being 22' at the head of Matagorda Bay and only 12.3' on the Gulf shoreline. Eleven tornadoes spun out of the rear portion of the storm in Texas, and deaths totaled 34 in the state, including 22 persons who drowned. Worth noting was the estimated 200,000 people that evacuated the Beaumont-Port Arthur area in a six hour period as Hurricane Carla approached the Texas coast.

Statistics:
Winds (mph): Gusts to 175 mph at Port Lavaca.
Tides (feet): 15.2 at Matagorda, 14.8 at the Houston Ship Channel, 14.5 at Port O'Connor

[lrak]

Ok, on the SW Caribbean- JB video, not too much detail, but 1) Hijo de Humberto not a sure thing, too much moisture taken out, low level too weak, best it can be expected to do is maybe become a TD or minimal TS just before landfall somewhere in South Texas.

JB showed September 7, 1961 500 mb map, very similar to forecast map this weekend, upper low North of Greater Antilles sort of merges with piece of polar trough that splits off, pulls up disturbance from SW Caribbean.


JB did not say a very large major hurricane that brough wind gusts to hurricane force to nearly the entire coast of Texas. He hasn't pulled the trigger on this, and he has backed away from Humberto the Sequel somewhat.

Long shot for loopty-loop, but the LLC of whats left of Humberto is drifting toward the GOM. Will the cold front above it push it down or kill it.

[Frank2]

Thanks for that information, Derek - I couldn't recall if '02 was an El Nino year, but, I do recall that it got very cool (down here) very fast...

Frank

[jasons2k]

Ok, on the SW Caribbean- JB video, not too much detail, but 1) Hijo de Humberto not a sure thing, too much moisture taken out, low level too weak, best it can be expected to do is maybe become a TD or minimal TS just before landfall somewhere in South Texas.

JB showed September 7, 1961 500 mb map, very similar to forecast map this weekend, upper low North of Greater Antilles sort of merges with piece of polar trough that splits off, pulls up disturbance from SW Caribbean.


JB did not say a very large major hurricane that brough wind gusts to hurricane force to nearly the entire coast of Texas. He hasn't pulled the trigger on this, and he has backed away from Humberto the Sequel somewhat.

That date is worse than the "A" word around here

Seriously, the thing that concerns me most about the SW Caribbean is the Euro latching onto this so strongly. That, more than anything, got my attention this morning. It's not every day that the Euro goes "crazy uncle" nuts with a non-developed system.

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO again shows the system developing in the Caribbean heading into the Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[PTrackerLA]

12Z EURO again shows the system developing in the Caribbean heading into the Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

, after how the Euro handled Dean and Felix this is definately something we need to keep an eye on.

[skysummit]

EURO for Monday, Sept 24th:

[jhamps10]

12Z EURO again shows the system developing in the Caribbean heading into the Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

, after how the Euro handled Dean and Felix this is definately something we need to keep an eye on.

and look at where in the GOM it takes it, can someone say loop current

NOLA, you may have a problem here.

[Frank2]

I wouldn't make any "NOLA" statements when it concerns a map that is 10 days in the future - especially since that I'll likely change (or even disappear) over the next few model runs...

[Sanibel]

Current Panama wave over to EPAC.

[hurricanetrack]

True enough Frank- that would be a good idea since people don't need that around those parts. Let's wait and see how this shapes up- obviously we have at least a week to watch and see if anything even gets going- then if it does, plenty more time to track it.

Gotta be careful calling places out by name this early- especially those still recovering from 2005.

[Extremeweatherguy]

When JB showed that comparison between the Carla pattern and the upcoming pattern we will be seeing next week..I have got to say, they were very similar! I will be watching this area closely for sure.

[Stormcenter]

What are the other models take on this?

[Stormcenter]

Okay so how many times that make now so far this season that New Orleans has been is the bullseye per one the models at one time or another?
seriously though as someone else already has posted 10 days out is really not worth getting concerned about. IMO

[skysummit]

What are the other models take on this?

Surprisingly enough, the Canadian doesn't do much with it. The GFS shows a little something, but sends it west. The 12z NOGAPS tries to develop something down there and the 12z UKMET lowers pressures all across that region.

[Stormcenter]

What are the other models take on this?

Surprisingly enough, the Canadian doesn't do much with it. The GFS shows a little something, but sends it west. The 12z NOGAPS tries to develop something down there and the 12z UKMET lowers pressures all across that region.

Thanks for the reply. That is what I expected to read. I just don't see that scenario panning out in late Sept. If it were early Sept. then maybe but I won't say it can't happen. IMO

[deltadog03]

Euro by far has done the best in the tropics this year. Ingrid is blah....There is convection down there and the overall pressures will begin to lower. As that happens the ridge will break down in the western and central gom which should allow this system/ maybe nothing to shoot the channel and might go boom

[Extremeweatherguy]

What are the other models take on this?

Surprisingly enough, the Canadian doesn't do much with it. The GFS shows a little something, but sends it west. The 12z NOGAPS tries to develop something down there and the 12z UKMET lowers pressures all across that region.

Thanks for the reply. That is what I expected to read. I just don't see that scenario panning out in late Sept. If it were early Sept. then maybe but I won't say it can't happen. IMO

Time of year doesn't matter as much as the overall pattern...and with a pattern similar to that of early September 1961 coming up, we will need to watch very closely for a possible western or central GOM threat in 5-10 days. Nothing to really worry about until we actually see formation, but ATM we cannot feel safe just because of the fact that it is mid September.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 102 hours.



18z GFS at 138 hours