Western Caribbean Disturbance

[punkyg]

As you can see those two blobs in the picture above
have come together and are expanding. its actually looking good.

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmm, looks like this one has a better chance for development.

[jhamps10]

well since no one wants to post it, I guess I will.

18 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018m.gif

24 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

30 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030m.gif

36 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

48 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

54:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

[jhamps10]

66 hr:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_066m.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

jhamps10


with whatever becomes of 93L looking like a Florida P'handle storm, this looks like the Louisiana threat, at least so far, if 0Z GFS is right.

[jhamps10]

jhamps10


with whatever becomes of 93L looking like a Florida P'handle storm, this looks like the Louisiana threat, at least so far, if 0Z GFS is right.

that's my thoughts too so far.

[jhamps10]

72 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif

[jhamps10]

78:
sw LA landfall in it's eyes this run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078m.gif

[Normandy]

Should be noted that if BOTH of these develop, then they are close enough to have a Fujiwhara interaction.

My theory is that one of them will become dominant and squash the other....and as of tonight, I'd honestly pick the SW Car disturbance to develop more (DESPITE the other being labeled as an Invest).

[jhamps10]

84 hours, inland:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif

[punkyg]

Man i've been so busy looking at tropical weather that i have not been checking my local weather i'm under tornado watch.
Okay will this area develop a area of low pressure.

[jhamps10]

Man i've been so busy looking at tropical weather that i have not been checking my local weather i'm under tornado watch.
Okay will this area develop a area of low pressure.

yeah and totally OT, just NW of ya, there's been tornado touchdowns, all local channels going wall-to-wall.

[punkyg]

Here you go guys a new pic of the wave or area of disturbed weather whatever you want to call it. convection sure is building.

[jhamps10]

this from pro met over on eastern, nickname wxsmwhrms.

OK, I took my first semi-serious look at this system, and I have to admit I am pretty interested. The GFS at first looked very squirrelly with this thing, bringing it across a strong upper jet and just flying it northward. But now, it seems to be settling down, and looking a bit more concerning. The forward speed has slown down, now not getting to the coast until Sunday night, and I am guessing it will continue to get a bit slower with time. Secondly, the upper pattern it is forecasting looks pretty favorable for development. The system starts out under an upper level anticyclone in good diffluence, and then seems to ride up the east side of a 200 mb jet. The actual flow it is in is only about 15-25kt, which given a pretty good forward motion implies not much shear, but good divergence in a RRQ of a jetmax to aid outflow. Finally, it looks to be in a pretty well-defined steering flow between the old mid level low/remnants of possibly Jerry and a good ridge to the east which would almost certainly result in it being guided toward the central Gulf coast. And, of course, it helps that there is already great looking intense convection in the area where the GFS develops this thing.

A couple of modeling notes, first the GFS is very compact with this thing - maybe due to some sort of convective/grid-scale feedback, or maybe because it is trying to model a compact system as we have seen with some intense tropical cyclones before. Secondly, I am almost sure that this is happening in the timeframe the ECWMF was showing about a week ago when it had it major 'cane shooting the Yucatan Channel and heading for New Orleans, and the Euro has still been periodically hinting at something coming out of this area the last few days.



Something to watch for sure.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:



Looks interesting.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Nimbus]

If it really did move fast and never got a chance to develop all the gulf coast would have to worry about is flood warnings. If 93L develops and stays out over water till Sunday then this thing has to come in east of 93l. There doesn't look like room for a Ridge and two tropical depressions in Luisiana so maybe 93L stays or is forced back out over water if this area gets into the gulf with a circulation?

[ronjon]

The GFS has been trending east with this system with a LA LF rather than east TX earlier. I think GFS is moving this too fast and even that model has slowed it down some. This looks very impressive to me this morning - it may be the first legimate major hurricane threat to the gulf coast this season. All the varibles would have to line up closely but there is a good chance on this one.

[hurricanetrack]

It has not even made the TWO- wonder why?

[Kennethb]

Latest GFS consistent in bringing the blob (future low?) into GOM toward Louisiana, while weakening the 93 system. Looks like a nice ridge setup over the midwest too.

And while I am thinking about this, didn't a couple of the GFS runs almost 2 weeks ago show a formadible system in the central GOM around this same time frame?