Western Caribbean Thread

[boca]

The area in question is moving WNW but what makes people think it will make it to the Western Caribbean. Their is a trough across the area thats been their for a week. This trough will probably force this system now moving WNW to curve more northerly than out to sea during the next few days. My reasoning is simply everything all that trough axis is moving NE.

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[Gustywind]

Looks like we're in for some interesting weather!
Thanks for all the info and pics.

No problem Caribpr i appreciate your reply . I will keep you informed if things turn quickly. Nothinh more to add whereas some moderate showers are occuring right now not too strong the sky is really dark and the atmosphere really moist...active weather in the next couple of hours for sure...

[Sanibel]

Caribbean trough still hovering and deep. The more it lingers the higher the chance for formation. Either 94L will survive or that blob over the Caribbean will form. 94L seems to be held over land and headed too far south, but it is still the Low center.

[BigA]

For what its worth, the area west of Jamaica looks to be in a pretty low shear environment right now. (as is the area just east of the lesser Antilles)

[Sanibel]

This area now has persistence.

[BigA]

Good convergence and divergence too in the area west of Jamaica, per the Wisconsin maps http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[Sanibel]

If 94L dissipates over Yucatan that Jamaican blob will probably take over. But if you look at the surface clouds the Low center is actually being entrained to the deeper convection west of 94L going into Mexico. The steering later has pushed everything too far south. Either Jamaica or the wave east of the Antilles should develop next.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS closes off low in the carribean and tracks it west to the SW carribean...This could get very interesting!!

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg 12am

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101523
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1123 AM AST WED OCT 10 2007
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL
ENTER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...
ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER AND A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE...WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CARIB DRIFTING WWD
AND IN COMBO WITH UPPER RIDGING TO OUR W IS YIELDING A MODERATE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

Seems that very active weather is in store and churning near us in the Islands during the next 24h-48:eek: !
The second wave seems to have a better shot given the latest conditions...hope nothing too bad, but Meteo France is maintaining the yellow alert for Martiniqua for strong showers and thunderstorms and same scenario in Guadeloupe, whereas Meteo-France Guadeloupe don't put any alert but emphasizes on the risk of moderate showers and scattered tstorms in theirs forecasts...


Interresting to see how the shear is steadily relaxing in the surrondings vicinity of the islands...or my eyes are deceiving me maybe a slim window for the other wave further east(should it verifies too, !)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
10kts or less in vicinity of the next
wave...

AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 52W-57W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE IS IN FACT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 62W-65W.
Ohh folks they're speaking about not to late tkanks lol

[Vortex]

This system needs to be watched very closely especially as it spreads through the carribean. My thinking is this splits in 2 with one peice of energy headed nw/n and the other continuing west towards the western carribean. The 12z gfs closes off a low as it moves through the carribean and the ecmwf also closed off a low yesterday in the central carribean. Either way a significant wave will likely enter the western carribean later this weekend...

[LaBreeze]

We'll be protected - the fronts are our friends - keep'em coming.

[LaBreeze]

The fronts are our friends - anything getting to the GOM will not have much of a chance to reach us.

[wxman57]

This is at least the 6th thread on this particular threat in the central to western Caribbean. Honestly, how many threads do we need for one single area we're watching? Yes the western Caribbean is the place to watch over the next week or two. But how about a SINGLE thread on the subject? Who's going to read 6 threads with the same info on potential development in the Caribbean? Not me!

Ex. 94L Discussion thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98505

Caribbean Trough Thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98561

Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player? thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98545

19N and 80W looks interesting... thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98567

Vigorous Disturbance in the Central Caribbean thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98541

[cycloneye]

But how about a SINGLE thread on the subject?

Thanks wxman57 for the suggestion.Agree and this will be the thread to discuss about the Caribbean possible development or not.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/193.JPG

[cycloneye]

Agreed.A thread is now open for the Caribbean.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98576&p=1653410#p1653410

[caneman]

Not a bad idea WXMN57. Now, how about sharing some ideas about why this is the area to watch, other than climatology? Thanks.

[southerngale]

Agreed.A thread is now open for the Caribbean.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98576&p=1653410#p1653410

Why start yet another one? lol

We could just use this one, or another one, and combine them.

[punkyg]

wow guys this wave is starting to look interesting.

[wxman57]

I was looking back at the pattern of October 2005 and it looks very similar to what's out in the Caribbean now. Take a look at the NASA animation "27 Storms from Arlene to Zeta". I like the high-res 720x480 800+MB version. Note the trof axis across the Caribbean, the shear in the eastern Caribbean, and the ridge building over the western Caribbean just before Wilma formed.

Also note that Stan's track very closely paralleled 94L's track, though 94L never got going before moving into the Yucatan.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003354/index.html