Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

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canegrl04
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#41 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:28 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:I totally expect this season to be closer to 2004 and 2005 :eek: The odds are against a 3peat of what we've had lately.And the US will get struck by at least one major 'cane

I've been laughing at this post.

Clarification: This post was sarcastic, but I wasn't personally attacking you. I just disagree with your forecast. For example, the number of United States landfalls during 2004-2005 was unprecedented. It was rare. It should not be expected during every season.

If you think my post was insulting, then I respect your opinion. It wasn't an intentional personal attack; it was a rebuttal of your premise that we will see total landfalls on par with 2004-2005 in the United States.


Okay.I just took it wrong.I admit there are times when I over due it.I'll try not to post stupid opinions like that anymore
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HURAKAN
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:00 pm

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#43 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:21 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image



Can I be the first to say "Hurricane season cancelled"?



:D
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:38 pm

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#45 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:44 pm

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day,
give him Photoshop, keep him busy for weeks.
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#46 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:46 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Give a man a fish, feed him for a day,
give him Photoshop, keep him busy for weeks.


PowerPoint 2007!!! :D :D :D
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 24, 2008 10:16 am

Image

This is the latest weekly update of the Atlantic anomalies and it shows a relativly warm Atlantic including parts of the GOM.The most warmest area is just off Africa.And the less warm area is the MDR one.
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Re:

#48 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image


Check out the difference around FL/Atlantic from 98-08.....interesting.....I'm sure there's some wonderful scientific reason behind the Pacific area being cooler in 10 years and the Atlantic area being warmer..... 8-)
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#49 Postby jinftl » Wed Apr 09, 2008 11:36 am

Current water temps in Gulf are warmer overall than one year ago...temps in the Bay of Campeche and the NW Caribbean Sea (Cuba/Caymans/Yucatan) are just about warm enough to support development!

Image


compared to one year ago...

Image
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#50 Postby Sjones » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:27 pm

jinftl wrote:Current water temps in Gulf are warmer overall than one year ago...temps in the Bay of Campeche and the NW Caribbean Sea (Cuba/Caymans/Yucatan) are just about warm enough to support development!

Image


compared to one year ago...

Image



YIKES :eek:
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#51 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:46 pm

It doesn't matter if it happens off-season. The SSTs in the GoM could easily return to normal or below normal conditions really quickly. We've all learned that when Katrina and Rita achieved category 5 near the same location within weeks of one another.
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#52 Postby yzerfan » Wed Apr 09, 2008 8:34 pm

And water temperatures in the spring of 2005 were on the cool side in the Gulf. Too early to say what means what either way.
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#53 Postby drezee » Sun Apr 13, 2008 11:54 am

those maps are quite useful tools. Looking at those maps for each of the last 4 years (2005-2008), 2008 is by far the largest extent of 26C water in the GOM. The way 2005 really turned around was that the source region of the gulf stream (the NW caribbean) was well above normal. This allowed the anamolies to change quickly. You do not have that for 2008.
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Re: Re:

#54 Postby x-y-no » Sun Apr 13, 2008 2:11 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Check out the difference around FL/Atlantic from 98-08.....interesting.....I'm sure there's some wonderful scientific reason behind the Pacific area being cooler in 10 years and the Atlantic area being warmer..... 8-)


'98 was a monster El Nino. What we've got now is a mature La Nina.
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Jim Hughes
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Re: Re:

#55 Postby Jim Hughes » Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:16 am

x-y-no wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:Check out the difference around FL/Atlantic from 98-08.....interesting.....I'm sure there's some wonderful scientific reason behind the Pacific area being cooler in 10 years and the Atlantic area being warmer..... 8-)


'98 was a monster El Nino. What we've got now is a mature La Nina.


This event is well past maturity. Eastern Pacifc is considerably different now, warm-neutral, and so is subsurface/OHC.
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Re: Re:

#56 Postby x-y-no » Mon Apr 14, 2008 8:52 am

Jim Hughes wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:Check out the difference around FL/Atlantic from 98-08.....interesting.....I'm sure there's some wonderful scientific reason behind the Pacific area being cooler in 10 years and the Atlantic area being warmer..... 8-)


'98 was a monster El Nino. What we've got now is a mature La Nina.


This event is well past maturity. Eastern Pacifc is considerably different now, warm-neutral, and so is subsurface/OHC.


OK, I won't argue with that. For the 1-2 region that's arguably true. 3-4 is still going pretty strong, but then that's the normal pattern for the tail end of an event.
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Jim Hughes
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Re: Re:

#57 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:OK, I won't argue with that. For the 1-2 region that's arguably true. 3-4 is still going pretty strong, but then that's the normal pattern for the tail end of an event.


Region 3 is also neutral, or slightly warm, in the latest updates. So we're not talking about a small region, like 1+2, since Region 3 is 5S-5N and 90-150W. The WPAC and EPAC are currently fairly different, anomaly wise. But it is somewhat like seasonal climo for a weakening La Nina.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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tolakram
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#58 Postby tolakram » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:05 pm

The current trend vs the models is interesting. It's warming up quick yet all the models forecast a slope that's far less than the current trend. Notice how the the intersection of observed data vs model data takes a sharp right turn?

From my non scientific perspective this seems to indicate something is being missed.

Found a picture of it:

Image

How realistic can that be?
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Re: Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:17 pm

Australian Model POAMA:

A steady warm trend thru November in this forecast but not sufficient to tip towards El Nino.

Image
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HURRICANELONNY
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SST'S

#60 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:03 pm

Looking at 2005 vs. 2008 in the Atlantic. There is not much of a difference from 2005. it was a bit warmer in the MDR but other then that. Not much:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2005.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2008.gif
:eek:
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