Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[KWT]

I'm sure I've heard Derek state that the wave in front helps the wave behind because logically think of the circulation...if a system moves to the west it will drag the dry air/SAL down on its western side, of course its not that simple with waves but if ther eis any circulation present then it will take the blow of the SAL whilst the wave behind will have a sort of shield if it starts to develop a circulation.

Still its all interesting stuff!

[Derek Ortt]

the wave behind helps the wave ahead in a SAL case

[KWT]

Oh ok fair enough then Derek I'm misqouting you there!

Why would that be anyway, is that just a general rule or does it depend on which system develops first and its location, etc?

[Gustywind]

Well this wave may actually help the wave behind it as it'll take the main SAL punch as it heads westwards and as long as the wave behind it can keep up then it may have a little better set-up to work with.

Still for the time of year I'm very impressed with this wave, last year waves seemed to often lose convection at 25-30W even by early August and we are beyond that stage it appears already in mid-June!

They are always decents days after days keeping their convection the more earlier possible right now, for the moment i would say that we're more in mid july than mid June given theses awesome and seductive waves...

[Gustywind]

I give the ocean two weeks to see an invest in the far east atlantic, theses waves are demonstrating how the conditions are improving gradually, we should see a TD before the beginning of July if this trend continues....so i won't be personnaly surprised

[Derek Ortt]

because the SAL comes from the east. A wave behind (from the east), disrupts the easterly jet associated with the SAL

[KWT]

Oh yeah of course I totally forgot about the easterly jet no wonder I was getting confused thanks Derek.

GW, possibly depends on how the SAL levels keep, there has been a couple of stronger thrusts of SAL over the last couple of weeks it seems which has come hand in hand with the emergence of stronger waves.

[Gustywind]

Yeah i forgot that KWT too, tkanks that's true
SO good luck the waves all the very best for you fish or not see you you in the water

[Gustywind]

But Kwt what are your thougts about the future of this wave?
I bet for a poof in spite of the deceant sat pic appearence and the conditions slightlyimproving in terms of shear not to much with le SAL...

[KWT]

Well history would agree with you that the system will go poof sooner or later. Still we will have to watch, though even if it does keep producing convection eventually its probably going to hit south America unless it gains a little more latitude.

[Gustywind]

Well history would agree with you that the system will go poof sooner or later. Still we will have to watch, though even if it does keep producing convection eventually its probably going to hit south America unless it gains a little more latitude.

OK tkanks i appreciate, history for sure, but as usual we see everytime what could happens, but given the lastest things i'm seeing convection will weaken a bit, dry air is doting quicker the area than i was predicted KWT, but this wave confirms the fact that theses are promising and we should not let our guard down during the next weeks for sure!

[HURAKAN]

Latest!

[cycloneye]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 7N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Derek Ortt]

see the analysis forum for some more info on this feature

[Sanibel]

Climatology would say as soon as it hits June cold water reality it should poof. It would be interesting if the warm winter SST's launched an early Cape Verde storm (doubtful).

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest pic of wave.



If convection persists,it may be a invest tommorow or wednesday.

[Ivanhater]

Looks good now, but the clouds infront indicate a stable environment

[tailgater]

It's too early to be looking this far out, right?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/175.jpg
What is the earliest a TD has formed out here?

[gatorcane]

well this wave certainly looks very impressive Luis. I'm curious if it becomes an invest tomorrow.

[ekal]

It's too early to be looking this far out, right?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/175.jpg
What is the earliest a TD has formed out here?

A search of the historical hurricane tracks database reveals that Hurricane Bertha (1996) formed near the wave's current location on July 5. That was the earliest record I could find of a tropical cyclone forming/passing within 200 nm of the wave (7.5 N, 34 W).

Source: http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Still, it looks decent this evening. Quikscat shows no LLC, yet.