Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[boca]

Well in this case the energy is most likely going to come from the EPAC. So for the time being the focus should be there if everyone is looking for something to move into the Caribbean. Not the norm, but it does happen.

I wonder if and when a system formed in the EPAC and crossed over in the June timeframe.

[cycloneye]

Adrian in 2005 crossed from EPAC to Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

I just cant believe we are talking about a storm in the gulf and its not even hurricane season yet!

[Aric Dunn]

Well ofcourse nobody cares about an EPAC storm because they don't hit Florida.

Ha Ha Ha Very funny!

dont get me wrong i love the tropics... no matter what ... but i live on the atlantic basin and i love chasing storms. and cant do that in the pacific

[KWT]

I don't think there is a great chance that anything will form in the EPAC based on the current ideas, I'm getting the idea that the disturbance is in the EPAC right now but is going to head towards the Sw Caribbean before forming into anything and it won't be till its over water in the SW Caribbean will anything actually develop.

To be honest I enjoy most tropical cyclones.

[Stratosphere747]

Well in this case the energy is most likely going to come from the EPAC. So for the time being the focus should be there if everyone is looking for something to move into the Caribbean. Not the norm, but it does happen.

I wonder if and when a system formed in the EPAC and crossed over in the June timeframe.

It doesn't necessarily have to be a developed system. Just enough energy/broad area of low pressure is all that may be needed to back up into the SW Caribbean. Chances are anything that would develop on the EPAC side would dissipate and re-develop.

Chances are low either way....

[Aric Dunn]

I just cant believe we are talking about a storm in the gulf and its not even hurricane season yet!

june 1st is just a date! nothing more .. there is no significant pattern change between the 25th of may and june first that all of a sudden say ok tropical cyclones can form now.

[KWT]

Stratosphere747, I think thats how the system the models are developing comes from, energy comes in from the EPAC then drifts northwards eventually concentrating near the Yucatan according to the 12z GFS.

Now waiting for the 12z ECM run...

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps shows development clearly in the SW carrib or at least no cross over ... except maybe some energy

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Meso]

12z EURO

240 hour http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[Vortex]

Euro appears to be having commitment issues on which side to party on

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't really know where to focus the energy and it remains a broad mess till about 192hrs where it finally hones in on the EPAC side to some degree. Thats still a possiblity of course.

[cycloneye]

Vortex,I edited the title of thread to take out GFS and add (Models Show) as other models are joining GFS.

[JonathanBelles]

Are all the models showing the same date?

[Stratosphere747]

Stratosphere747, I think thats how the system the models are developing comes from, energy comes in from the EPAC then drifts northwards eventually concentrating near the Yucatan according to the 12z GFS.

Now waiting for the 12z ECM run...

Nothing unusual for the models to differ on the placement of "where" something might develop. The difference here is that it's close enough to an area where it could develop in either the EPAC or Atlantic and the models had a similar idea all along.

Honestly I only find this mildly interesting being it could be the first system of the year, and it's not that far fetched. I'll happily leave the other 100+ phantom systems that the models try and develop over the course of the season to the other die hards...

[Eyewall]

The big question is what are the upper level winds looking like they will be around this time of development. That will be crucial as to how strong the strom will get.

[Aric Dunn]

not that its big deal right now .... but the MJO Forecast becomes more favorable for the SW caribbean over the next week just as the models are trying to develop something

[jimvb]

Can hurricanes split? The 2008 May 25 12Z run was strange. On or about June 5, after the storm enters the GOM, it splits, and one storm goes west and hits Houston, and the other goes east, crosses the middle of peninsular Florida, and goes out into the Atlantic. I have never heard of a hurricane or tropical storm split in half, and I sure don't want to see any clustercanes or MIRVacanes this season.

[KatDaddy]

Here is the latest excerpt from the Corpus Christi AFD:

WHAT REALLY
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

[Aric Dunn]

Can hurricanes split? The 2008 May 25 12Z run was strange. On or about June 5, after the storm enters the GOM, it splits, and one storm goes west and hits Houston, and the other goes east, crosses the middle of peninsular Florida, and goes out into the Atlantic. I have never heard of a hurricane or tropical storm split in half, and I sure don't want to see any clustercanes or MIRVacanes this season.

no they dont split in half anyway! what happens sometimes is that the model is picking up on a piece of energy that has broken off or has been sheared and the model thinks its another system. from time to time you will see that happen. if you look at the cmc .. it used to do that a lot.