Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[ronjon]

Looks like the ULL to the NW of the disturbance is weakening and lifting out to the north leaving a clear path for a W-NW heading just north of the Greater Antilles. Convection has really blown up today and as suspected, it'll be in prime real estate for development near the SE Bahamas. A strong mid-level ridge (>594 dm) will be buiding over the SE USA that will prevent this feature from moving up the east coast and steer it toward the W-NW or W once it reaches about 25N. Like wxman57 said, this ridge is forecast to break down after 2-3 days which should bring the disturbance across S FL into the GOM and then?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Weatherfreak000]

The northern portion of the wave is flaring considerably. Vorticity maps suggest the highest vorticity associated with this wave is now blanketed by deep convection.

However, the MIMIC definitely suggests we have a circulation to the North, and one to the South. The problem is it looks to me like that TUTT is on its last leg. It appears to be lifting North and dissipating rapidly which is probably the reason the Northern portion is flaring up so much. I am wondering if this solution was seen by the CMC (Best longrange), I believe even the EURO suggested a path north of the islands near florida.


Until I see anything to suggest otherwise i'd say the Northern portion of this wave is poised to win the energy battle. That would take this North of the Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, since they don't expect this wave to show any potential develeopment until Thursday or Beyond, looks like we will have a long time to watch it. Next weekend could be very interesting.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Yeah Weatherfreak000, the southern wave did have much stronger turning yesterday but that appears to have weakened somewhat and its hard to go against turning that has now also got decent convection, even if that convection is being enhanced by the ULL.

I think as long as it doesn't get north of say 23-25N anytime within the next 5 days conditions will improve with time.

Just keep an eye out on any sudden new ULLs developing, the models have very often totally missed these features that sometimes pop up out of nearly nowhere.

[cycloneye]

I am going out on a limb to say at the 2 PM TWO,they will go up to 20% and invest 97L will be up this afternoon.

[Ivanhater]

Centralized, increasing vorticity

[Weatherfreak000]

No doubt about it today is a landmark moment in the genesis of this system and the track. If the storm decides to go North the possibility of a U.S. landfall will be very high.

Even if this isn't an invest, today is an important day to be watching this system.

[Hugo1989]

I really like the wave! I would say that increased to 20% for 2:00 pm.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am going out on a limb to say at the 2 PM TWO,they will go up to 20% and invest 97L will be up this afternoon.

Normally I would agee with you on that Luis, but weren't some, such as Jeff Masters, saying that it would remain a wave until Thursday due to the 20 Kt Shear over it?

[Gustywind]

[Vortex]

12Z Canadian has what appears to be TS making landfall in southern Florida in 5-6 days.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[Weatherfreak000]

The CMC has been absolutely phenomenal thus far on this system IMO.

[KWT]

No doubt about it today is a landmark moment in the genesis of this system and the track. If the storm decides to go North the possibility of a U.S. landfall will be very high.

Its going to be tight thats for sure whether it gets to the north of the islands, looking at the Vorticity map that was uploaded it could well end up to the north of the islands or IMO possibly even more possible go over at least the E.Caribbean.

Models more or less in good agreement on a track towards S.Florida/Straits though given the possible track development probably won't be any time just yet, the GFS also once again increases the shear over the Gulf and weakens the system...but thats way too far down the line to know.

IF it keeps over open water and not too far north, this one is highly likely will be a developer, but land interaction will more then likely be an issue for a good part of the next week.

[SFLcane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/MIMATS/MIMATS.201007181705.txt

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG
59W/60W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N
MOVING OVER THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND APPROACHING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION MAY BREAK OFF INTO
A TROUGH MOVING NW OF THE AREA ON MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT
ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TUE.
MEANWHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY MON THROUGH TUE REACHING ALONG 75W WED THEN SLOWING DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS IT TAKES MORE OF A NW TRACK REACHING 78W THU AND 82W
FRI.THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOP WITH THIS
WAVE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, as SFLcane just pointed out, up to 20%. Excellent call Luis!

[Gustywind]

Increasing convection...

[SFLcane]

ABNT20 KNHC 181733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

I think its a good call its gone upto 20%, whilst there is obvious shear you can't just totally ignore the convective developments occuring.

Only a matter of time till they pull the trigger...surely!

[SFLcane]

I think its a good call its gone upto 20%, whilst there is obvious shear you can't just totally ignore the convective developments occuring.

Only a matter of time till they pull the trigger...surely!

Still 10 percent... Surface pressures remain high.