Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[N2Storms]

:uarrow: might want to add a disclaimer....

I agree with most points but I am not sold on NGOM right now until a LLC does develop. I like the FIM9, NAVGEM and CMC but I have seen both fall on their faces. Waiting on the EURO to confirm my thoughts which remain unchanged...

Last night Cantore said serveral times that he thought the West solution was the most viable which sounds like he is putting more credence in to the Euro also. FWIW I am in that camp also for right now, but honestly, IMHO even if this does eventually become a TC I think it's legacy is destined to be that of a significant "rain maker". We are going to get plenty of rain up here in the FL Panhandle regardless of whether or not a system comes our way. We just recorded approx an inch in a t'storm this morning and lots of rain is the last thing we need right now.

[northjaxpro]

It won't be too much longer now until we see the first hints of a LLC down there. The upper envionment is steadily improving in the western Caribbean and I think we will probably see the development of a LLC within next 12-24 hours, either later tonight or sometime on Wednesday. So, I anticipate when this happens, NHC will tag it an invest, possibly as early as this evening.

[SunnyThoughts]

:uarrow: might want to add a disclaimer....

I agree with most points but I am not sold on NGOM right now until a LLC does develop. I like the FIM9, NAVGEM and CMC but I have seen both fall on their faces. Waiting on the EURO to confirm my thoughts which remain unchanged...

Last night Cantore said serveral times that he thought the West solution was the most viable which sounds like he is putting more credence in to the Euro also. FWIW I am in that camp also for right now, but honestly, IMHO even if this does eventually become a TC I think it's legacy is destined to be that of a significant "rain maker". We are going to get plenty of rain up here in the FL Panhandle regardless of whether or not a system comes our way. We just recorded approx an inch in a t'storm this morning and lots of rain is the last thing we need right now.

Absolutely right about that. Hopefully we don't get any winds, roots on these trees have to be saturated to the point where it wouldn't take very strong winds for a period of time to bring them down.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, I have noticed that the LL flow which yesterday was more due west across CS is now starting to buckle to the north on the RGB loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Stormcenter]

The wording on TWO is getting old fast. IMO

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Sanibel]

It has persistence and appears to be developing. It even has a sideways "V" shape. Probably just a matter of how long it takes to get it together now. (Which means it could still bust)

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'm going with TC 11pm Wednesday. I'm just an amateur, but ya know

[ninel conde]

:uarrow: might want to add a disclaimer....

I agree with most points but I am not sold on NGOM right now until a LLC does develop. I like the FIM9, NAVGEM and CMC but I have seen both fall on their faces. Waiting on the EURO to confirm my thoughts which remain unchanged...

Last night Cantore said serveral times that he thought the West solution was the most viable which sounds like he is putting more credence in to the Euro also. FWIW I am in that camp also for right now, but honestly, IMHO even if this does eventually become a TC I think it's legacy is destined to be that of a significant "rain maker". We are going to get plenty of rain up here in the FL Panhandle regardless of whether or not a system comes our way. We just recorded approx an inch in a t'storm this morning and lots of rain is the last thing we need right now.

Absolutely right about that. Hopefully we don't get any winds, roots on these trees have to be saturated to the point where it wouldn't take very strong winds for a period of time to bring them down.

thats the same all up the east coast. the rain wont stop. even if a moderate tropical storm comes up the coast alot of trees will literally flaot out of the ground. if erin forms i hope it heads due west.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 92L. Go here to continue the discussions.