2015 Global model runs discussion

[stormlover2013]

Telling watch the gom also, looks like high pressure builds and moisture could move west in the gom

[cycloneye]

12z GFS gives more life to weak low in MDR but begins to fade as it approaches the Northern Leewards.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS gives more life to weak low in MDR but begins to fade as it approaches the Northern Leewards.

In the 18z it fades around the Leewards but looks to track west as a wave where a low redevelops around the Bahamas and makes it all the way to Florida around the Aug 5 - Aug 7th timeframe. Obviously it's far out but something we may need to watch given the progged steering setup the GFS is showing across the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS gives more life to weak low in MDR but begins to fade as it approaches the Northern Leewards.

In the 18z it fades around the Leewards but looks to track west as a wave where a low redevelops around the Bahamas and makes it all the way to Florida around the Aug 5 - Aug 7th timeframe. Obviously it's far out but something we may need to watch given the progged steering setup the GFS is showing across the Atlantic.

Wasn't that also the same or similar timeframe the CFS was showing something approaching the SE U.S.?

[blp]

12z GFS gives more life to weak low in MDR but begins to fade as it approaches the Northern Leewards.

In the 18z it fades around the Leewards but looks to track west as a wave where a low redevelops around the Bahamas and makes it all the way to Florida around the Aug 5 - Aug 7th timeframe. Obviously it's far out but something we may need to watch given the progged steering setup the GFS is showing across the Atlantic.

Wasn't that also the same or similar timeframe the CFS was showing something approaching the SE U.S.?

Yes and the CFS even today shows nice waves across the MDR in Mid August. It has been very consistent for over a week. One thing though is almost every run has them losing steam when they reach the islands. Not a surprise considering very dry air from 40 to 60 W at the mid levels. I think we will get one or two that get through. So far what the GFS is starting to show in the long range is what the CFS has been advertising.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS and CFS have been advertising a possible system that may need to be watched which just came off Africa as its shown going just north of the islands which is usually very conducive for development in El Nino years and systems like that can bring the biggest surprises

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[WPBWeather]

The GFS and CFS have been advertising a possible system that may need to be watched which just came off Africa as its shown going just north of the islands which is usually very conducive for development in El Nino years and systems like that can bring the biggest surprises

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yes and this is one of the scenarios I have had nightmares about since 1992 here in South Florida. Hope it stays just a bad dream!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has our current African system surviving with a weak low of 1011 now at 174hrs at 18N 50W with a ridge building back in

Hr 204 has a sharp wave with the highest vorticity heading just NE of the islands and based on the 500 pattern shown on the 0zGFS at 210hrs would send any system into south Florida

the 0zGFS kills the low at 180hrs and whats weird is while theres no shear theres no strengthening with this maybe its because of those High peaks of Hispaniola and Cuba. The thing here to note is if this thing is farther to the north than modeled before the west turn it could get quite interesting with the modeled shear being low

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting tweets from HurricaneTracker App about how the pattern is favorable for possible U.S. impacts from the East IF a Tropical Wave can survive the LONG trip across the lake.

@hurrtrackerapp
Development chances are down to almost nothing near FL. Some nice rains in store for the Sunshine state over the next several days. #flwx
10:39 AM - 26 Jul 2015

@hurrtrackerapp
As we enter early Aug, we will be looking to see if any strong waves make it through the hostile Atlantic. The Cape Verde season is upon us.
10:41 AM - 26 Jul 2015

@hurrtrackerapp
Too much northerly shear and dry air pushing in with no upper level divergence. No development for now near FL. #tropics
10:46 AM - 26 Jul 2015

‏@hurrtrackerapp
The door is open for landfall in early Aug IF any strong ATL waves make it through. High pressure in the W ATL may block any recurves.
10:51 AM - 26 Jul 2015

@hurrtrackerapp
Here is the pattern that models show for early Aug. Stronger trop waves pushing W underneath a ridge will be watched.
10:59 AM - 26 Jul 2015

[gatorcane]

the latest 12Z ECMWF showing possible development of a Cape Verde system and has another low behind it, 144 hours below. The first system weakens some as it approaches the Leewards. Looks like the tropical Atlantic may be heating up some:

144 hours:


240 hours:

[floridasun78]

let see models are right as go into aug i see bit shear in far Atlantic

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah saw a tweet about strong shear.

@MJVentrice: Vertical wind shear to amplify over much of the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic through mid-August. #TCKiller http://t.co/ZEHnIrp7Wx

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Yeah saw a tweet about strong shear.

@MJVentrice: Vertical wind shear to amplify over much of the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic through mid-August. #TCKiller http://t.co/ZEHnIrp7Wx

Although MJV is good, 340 hours is too far out for a good verification, IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

True, still can't rule out a short lived named storm or two in the MDR this season.

[gatorcane]

But the fact the ECMWF is showing some organized lows in the MDR already is interesting. GFS has been showing some strong lows also. Cape Verde season doesn't crank up until mid August usually.

[Hammy]

But the fact the ECMWF is showing some organized lows in the MDR already is interesting. GFS has been showing some strong lows also. Cape Verde season doesn't crank up until mid August usually.

Problem with the Euro is it completely busted with the EC system which makes it a bit hard to believe in others, especially since I believe it was upgraded recently. Or does it have more problems overdeveloping systems in the subtropics?

[blp]

I know the shear forecast is like throwing darts at a board but at least for now it is trending the right direction at the right time. Let's see if continues. Looking at the long range the CFS continues to show good waves in the MDR until end of August but consistently weaken as they get close to the islands. September looks slow. August might be the best month for the MDR. Let see what happens.

[Hammy]

Looking at the long range the CFS continues to show good waves in the MDR until end of August but consistently weaken as they get close to the islands.

Where are you getting the full Atlantic CFS? I can't seem to find it.

[blp]

Here you go. The 12z goes out 1080hrs while the 00z goes out 2040hrs. I alternate from Africa to Central America regions.


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

[Hammy]

Here you go. The 12z goes out 1080hrs while the 00z goes out 2040hrs. I alternate from Africa to Central America regions.


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

Thanks