Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[SFLcane]

ECMWF Seasonal Model Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update: Including Alex, now is predicting 13 Named Storms; 9 Hurricanes; 3 Major Hurricanes.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that a tropical wave already just northeast of the South American continent? Looks disorganized but very similar to one. It has almost no chance to survive shear I think (not a forecast) but Is this common this time of year if it is one?

[blp]

UKMET



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20160501/2cat_20160501_prec_months24_north_atlantic_prob_public.png

[SFLcane]

Thx for UKMET.. look a rather wet Caribbean and mdr. Me likes

[NDG]

One thing that I noticed about the UKMET is that it trended wetter for the Caribbean and parts of the Atlantic MDR for JJA.

[tolakram]

Last year some of us discussed the ongoing drought in Brazil and the effects, if any, on the RH of the tropical Atlantic. The drought ended in February with reservoir levels nearly doubling so I wonder if this will have a positive impact?

[PTrackerLA]

UKMET forecasting an above average season. 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes which doesn't include Alex. ACE forecasted to be 125 which is more than double 2015 ACE.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2016

[cycloneye]

UKMET forecasting an above average season. 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes which doesn't include Alex. ACE forecasted to be 125 which is more than double 2015 ACE.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2016

I already posted it at the experts thread

[tarheelprogrammer]

Post on Twitter from HurricaneTracker App

"Warm water & avg-below average wind shear (see pic) could mean busiest season in a few years. Will there be dust?!"

[cycloneye]

If the upper shear stays like this thru the peak of the season,it will be with tropical activity especially closer to the islands.

[TheStormExpert]

The majority of the Atlantic Basin is forecasted by the CFS to have below normal shear during the peak months of the hurricane season.



In fact just looking at June and July wind shear is expected to be well below normal across much of the usual development regions for those months.





SST Anomalies are looking quite warm across all of the Atlantic for the peak months.



Precipitation is looking iffy though for much of the Atlantic for the peak months.



MSLP looks to be on the higher than normal side for the peak months as well.



All in all one would assume by looking at these graphics that the Atlantic is probably in for an Average to maybe slightly Above Average season if the CFS is right. Of course things can and will change so stay tuned!

[TheStormExpert]

If the upper shear stays like this thru the peak of the season,it will be with tropical activity especially closer to the islands.

Add the Gulf of Mexico, East Coast, and maybe Caribbean to the list of decreasing shear values at the moment.

[Hurricaneman]

The shear levels coming down is a big worry this year and the warmer than normal Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM may this year be much more than many think, a couple of prime examples of warm EPAC MDR and Warm Atlantic are 2004 and 2005 and I wouldnt mind throwing 1985 in there either as its the closest analog to 2016 other than a cool MDR that year it most closely resembles that year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

ECMWF Precipitation forecast for ASO doesn't look with good moisture in MDR.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF Precipitation forecast for ASO doesn't look with good moisture in MDR.

How accurate has the model been in the past?

[NDG]

For JJA period, the latest Euro shows a not so dry forecast for the Caribbean than it did in its previous forecast last month.
Same thing for JAS & ASO. More l like near average over all than below average.




Compared to last year, the precipitation forecast is much wetter for ASO period compared to last year's forecast.

[Siker]

I made a rough approximation of the Caribbean (10-20N, 62-85W) and retrieved NCEP Reanalysis SST data for all years back to 1948; March 2016 was the warmest on record, while April 2016 was the 2nd warmest on record (for their respective months):

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... Timeseries

[wxman57]

ECMWF Seasonal Model Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update: Including Alex, now is predicting 13 Named Storms; 9 Hurricanes; 3 Major Hurricanes.

I'm looking at the paid ECMWF website and see 11.7 named storms with 7.5 hurricanes (not including Alex). ACE 90% of normal. I don't see anywhere that the ECMWF predicts a number of major hurricanes.

[Darvince]

I made a rough approximation of the Caribbean (10-20N, 62-85W) and retrieved NCEP Reanalysis SST data for all years back to 1948; March 2016 was the warmest on record, while April 2016 was the 2nd warmest on record (for their respective months):

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... Timeseries

I am not the least bit surprised by this

[cycloneye]

Very interesting almost 16 minute video by Levi Cowan about how he sees the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season shaping up.+PDO may be a big factor,Caribbean,GOM,Off East U.S coast the hot spots.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... n-outlook/