2018 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Also spins up the 10/30 to a weak TS.

06z GFS still developing the 10/30 system into a moderate TS. Timeframe really coming in, I'm expecting an invest soon and the NHC odds to shootup.

[cycloneye]

10/50-20/30

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to
form from this system over the next day or two, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for development over the next few days
while the disturbance moves toward the north or north-northeast at
about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Ntxw]

Overall the screaming early season shear is lifting north (30N and up) and the basin overall is now in a more conducive environment for west trackers. There are pockets of high shear but it's not something that sustains. Now just got to wait for the SSTs to rise with climo (already above average). Assembly line of cyclones?

[Yellow Evan]

Exciting times ahead.

[cycloneye]

30%/70% - 40%/50%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing near a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves westward
to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A second broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity,
which has increased slightly in organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the disturbance moves toward the north or
north-northeast at about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific.
The system is expected to reach cooler waters early next week, which
will limit the potential for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF rolling out. On board with the 40/50 now.

[Yellow Evan]

Meanwhile, FV3 is actually showing a similar situation to the ECMWF so far.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94E is up

INVEST 95E is up

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops the two Invests and two more thereafter.If this occurs,ACE will ramp up fast and will be fun to track especially the biggie.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS goes all the way to Gilma by the first week of July.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has Fabio and Gilma by July 1.

[Kingarabian]

It's possible that it's too much development in such a short period of time if we get Gilma by July 1. Think it's likely one system doesn't make it due to outflow from a stronger system forming before hand.

[cycloneye]

The models may be all over the place in terms of how many they develop in the next two week period but I guess is better to let mother nature do it's work and let's see how things are after the next two weeks and after the current upswing calms down,we will analize what has occured in real time and see which model(s) did passed the exam.

[Kingarabian]

Overall the screaming early season shear is lifting north (30N and up) and the basin overall is now in a more conducive environment for west trackers. There are pockets of high shear but it's not something that sustains. Now just got to wait for the SSTs to rise with climo (already above average). Assembly line of cyclones?

[img]http://i63.tinypic.com/bgbfvp.gif[img]

No Hawaiian shear in June... Very concerning. Long trackers can now intensify as they enter the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

The reason why we're not seeing a lot of tweets in regards to this upcoming uptick in TC activity for the EPAC, is due to the lack of a CCKW/MJO presence.

[Yellow Evan]

The models may be all over the place in terms of how many they develop in the next two week period but I guess is better to let mother nature do it's work and let's see how things are after the next two weeks and after the current upswing calms down,we will analize what has occured in real time and see which model(s) did passed the exam.

You guys should know I'm a big fan of the ECMWF but the GFS has been the best model so far this year; aside from messing up on 1E, it did much better than the ECMWF than Aletta and sightly better with Bud and was the only one to really show and intensify Carlotta.

[Ntxw]

The reason why we're not seeing a lot of tweets in regards to this upcoming uptick in TC activity for the EPAC, is due to the lack of a CCKW/MJO presence.

https://i.imgur.com/EXwrswU.png

Will be the reason why is impressive if it pans out. Environment and low frequency background forcing is a telling sign.

[Kingarabian]

The models may be all over the place in terms of how many they develop in the next two week period but I guess is better to let mother nature do it's work and let's see how things are after the next two weeks and after the current upswing calms down,we will analize what has occured in real time and see which model(s) did passed the exam.

You guys should know I'm a big fan of the ECMWF but the GFS has been the best model so far this year; aside from messing up on 1E, it did much better than the ECMWF than Aletta and sightly better with Bud and was the only one to really show and intensify Carlotta.

I agree that the Euro OP has been iffy in this early season so far with it forecasting (correct) development and then dropping it-- lots of seasawing back and forth. But the EPS did a remarkable job forseeing development 15 days ago. Here's your post then:

Last few EPS runs have hinted at another system forming June 22ish.

[Yellow Evan]

The reason why we're not seeing a lot of tweets in regards to this upcoming uptick in TC activity for the EPAC, is due to the lack of a CCKW/MJO presence.

NHC also doesn't seem to be sending out tweets for stuff on the TWO's like they usually do.

I tried to make up the difference, however.

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1010224967231795200

[cycloneye]

Dante_Grasso,I am following you now. and I see you are doing the same. You always have good information to share.