Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Cachondo23]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1829551185822671012

Iris 1995 had a very interesting track. It went all the way up north when it reached the Lesser Antilles, it entered through the St Lucia area and exit near Barbuda.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS OP landfalls Way out in fantasy land of about 11 days near Apalachicola as a major hurricane. FSU wouldn’t like this scenario either being right front quadded.

I doupt it travels the entire caribbean without development i call that " bluff" GEFS ensembles are north.

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro has a quick vort consolidation similar to most 12z runs. It develops slowly thereafter, with a TD on day 4 and a TS southeast of Jamaica near day 6.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the NHC should bump the odds back up to 50%. Not sure I agree with it going down to 40% in the first place.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro OP clips the north east end of the Yucatán And then turns close to due north as a strong hurricane at the end of the run.

[Ubuntwo]

I think the NHC should bump the odds back up to 50%. Not sure I agree with it going down to 40% in the first place.

I agree… only one model cycle truly supported a drop to 40%. We saw their persistence in holding it at 20%, where did that go at 8 am?

[LarryWx]

12z Euro OP clips the north east end of the Yucatán And then turns close to due north as a strong hurricane at the end of the run.

It is important for folks to not hang onto these operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* it has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

[cycloneye]

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro OP clips the north east end of the Yucatán And then turns close to due north as a strong hurricane at the end of the run.

It is important for folks to not hang onto these operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* it has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

Completely agree. Just commenting on the verbatim output of this one run. And by saying strong hurricane, I meant as not a major Should’ve just said hurricane.

[SFLcane]

12z Euro OP clips the north east end of the Yucatán And then turns close to due north as a strong hurricane at the end of the run.

It is important for folks to not hang onto these operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* it has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

Right now operationals are quite different then the eps/gefs..

[jlauderdal]

I think the NHC should bump the odds back up to 50%. Not sure I agree with it going down to 40% in the first place.

They are on board but just slower development, remember the time frames for the product. Modeling is slower but this is looking ominous with a slow developing system getting into the gulf

[Kazmit]

I think the NHC should bump the odds back up to 50%. Not sure I agree with it going down to 40% in the first place.

I agree… only one model cycle truly supported a drop to 40%. We saw their persistence in holding it at 20%, where did that go at 8 am?

Models delayed development past five days. We'll see the chances go up again by tomorrow.

[Teban54]

I think the NHC should bump the odds back up to 50%. Not sure I agree with it going down to 40% in the first place.

I agree… only one model cycle truly supported a drop to 40%. We saw their persistence in holding it at 20%, where did that go at 8 am?

Models delayed development past five days. We'll see the chances go up again by tomorrow.

The current NHC graphic goes out to 7 days, though.

[cycloneye]

Here is the end of 12z Euro run with a cat 2 in south-central GOM.

[Kazmit]

I agree… only one model cycle truly supported a drop to 40%. We saw their persistence in holding it at 20%, where did that go at 8 am?

Models delayed development past five days. We'll see the chances go up again by tomorrow.

The current NHC graphic goes out to 7 days, though.

Huh, I could've sworn it went out to 5 days. Did they change that recently?

[Teban54]

Models delayed development past five days. We'll see the chances go up again by tomorrow.

The current NHC graphic goes out to 7 days, though.

Huh, I could've sworn it went out to 5 days. Did they change that recently?

It was changed last year, either at the start of the season or soon into it:

https://www.aroundosceola.com/hurricane ... k-5-7-days

[SFLcane]

Holy October Florida pattern on the EPS!

@larrywx

[LarryWx]

Holy October Florida pattern on the EPS!

@larrywx

Yeah, Adrian, I see the scary EPS members slamming FL from the Gulf. But others go into the W gulf, some stay just east offshore, and some still don’t even have a TC. So, I’d call it a mix.

[Stormlover70]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

[Ubuntwo]

Based on the 18z vorticity analysis from the SSEC, the consolidation process has started near 12N 47W.