TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#401 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:05 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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JPmia
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#402 Postby JPmia » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:06 pm

Matt can you post a link to that model run?
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CronkPSU
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#403 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:She actually looks like she moving a little south of due west but hey that's just my opinion.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6


doesn't look like it is moving at all in that loop except two minor jogs WSW
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#404 Postby Ixolib » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:07 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082418-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


WOW!!
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#405 Postby JPmia » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082418-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation




That is from 18Z...there is a new run not on that site yet.
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Foladar

#406 Postby Foladar » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:08 pm

JPmia wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082418-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation




That is from 18Z...there is a new run not on that site yet.

TY, wasn't sure if it was the old one or the new one, and I'm no good at reading them LOL
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#407 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:10 pm

Here's a good example of a fist:

http://img357.imageshack.us/my.php?image=satellitepic22qm.jpg

Irene was a Cat 1 at that time, strengthened to a Cat 2 and eye popped out shortly after the time of the image.
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#408 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:10 pm

That is the scenario that Avila mentioned in the discussion. He felt it was highly unlikely, but due to the GFDL being one of the better models in his opinion wanted it to be known.
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tronbunny
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#409 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:12 pm

Have y'all seen this output of the 'almighty' FSU superensemble yet?

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5fsu/fcst/index.html
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#410 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:13 pm

tronbunny wrote:Have y'all seen this output of the 'almighty' FSU superensemble yet?

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5fsu/fcst/index.html

That is NOT the FSU superensemble. It is FSU's version of the MM5. The Superensemble is still under wraps to most of the public.
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#411 Postby sponger » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:14 pm

Gfdl trending east! I wonder how far out this one is going to swing?
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#412 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:16 pm

oops! :oops:
my mistake...
this is a larger consensus:
http://http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcst/archive/05082418/4.html#track
Image

I think we're looking at a major transition about to happen, since this one is all over the place with a grouping of:
1800 gfdl (invest 97 and katrina), mm5af, gfs
1200 cmc, ngp, ukm

looking forward to the next graphic of the 00Z runs.
Last edited by tronbunny on Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#413 Postby FlSteel » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:20 pm

That run of the GFDL would suck for the keys, basically a strong cat 4-5 hit there, followed by Pensacola with a strong cat 2-3. :(
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Foladar

#414 Postby Foladar » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:20 pm

Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all :lol:
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#415 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:23 pm

Foladar wrote:Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all :lol:


That would be water temperatures. :lol:
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#416 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:24 pm

FlSteel wrote:That run of the GFDL would suck for the keys, basically a strong cat 4-5 hit there, followed by Pensacola with a strong cat 2-3. :(


The new NOGAPS has the same general track into Pensacola (again!).
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#417 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
FlSteel wrote:That run of the GFDL would suck for the keys, basically a strong cat 4-5 hit there, followed by Pensacola with a strong cat 2-3. :(


The new NOGAPS has the same general track into Pensacola (again!).


Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

I thought AL and NW FL was closed to hurricanes??? :lol:
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#418 Postby JTD » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:28 pm

Will someone elaborate a bit more on the GFDL trending east this new run? How far east? Please give details :D
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gkrangers

#419 Postby gkrangers » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:30 pm

jason0509 wrote:Will someone elaborate a bit more on the GFDL trending east this new run? How far east? Please give details :D
There is no new run yet. The 00z run is next, and should be out shortly.
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Foladar

#420 Postby Foladar » Wed Aug 24, 2005 11:30 pm

Brent wrote:
Foladar wrote:Whatever the above image is of, it looks ugly cus I don't want this one near me at all :lol:


That would be water temperatures. :lol:

Oops, whats that darn white line doing?
LOL
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