98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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artist
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#401 Postby artist » Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:50 pm


Sat Oct 15, 2005
MoBay residents flooded out

Scores of residents in Montego Bay, St. James were flooded out of their homes as torrential rains hit the parish Friday night.

Many business operators have also incurred major losses, while others are trying to clean up as a deluge again threatens.

Fish vendors at the Byron Leslie complex lost most of their fish valued at nearly $100,000 as the North Gully overflowed its banks and flood waters went into the containers and refrigerators at the facility.

When our reporter visited the area Saturday morning residents were visibly distraught, some were asking for quick assistance from the authorities.

However the disaster preparedness coordinator up to late Saturday morning was unaware of the situation.

Keisha Reid, who operates a hairdressing shop and a bar, lost all her belongings.


Other residents, including Ivan Burnett and Sharon Bell, are now homeless.

Saturday morning they recovered some of their personal documents on the compound of the courthouse, which is also flooded.

In the meantime, some residents are helping to clear a section of William Street which is covered in mud, while other areas flooded include the Union and St. James Street intersection, and Bogue in the vicinity of the Village.

The very dangerous Sipple Gut River has again overflowed its banks causing flooding in Somerton and Moore Park while a section of the Content road has collapsed.

In the meantime, motorists are being advised to avoid using the Bog Walk Gorge in St. Catherine.

The Gorge has been closed due to rising water.

Motorists should instead use the alternative routes through Barry and Sligoville, until further notice.





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http://www.televisionjamaica.com/news/s ... tory=20709
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#402 Postby artist » Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:54 pm

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#403 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:01 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.8 78.5 260./ 6.0
6 17.9 78.7 279./ 2.3
12 18.0 79.6 280./ 8.1
18 17.6 80.3 242./ 8.2
24 17.6 80.6 270./ 2.9
30 17.5 80.9 237./ 3.0
36 17.2 80.8 159./ 2.5
42 17.1 80.8 196./ 1.5
48 17.0 80.9 240./ 1.3
54 17.0 81.0 270./ .8
60 17.2 81.3 311./ 3.2
66 17.2 81.7 268./ 3.6
72 17.2 81.9 263./ 2.4
78 17.2 82.2 272./ 2.3
84 17.2 82.2 300./ .8
90 17.2 82.4 275./ 2.0
96 17.4 82.6 307./ 2.6
102 17.6 82.8 323./ 2.0
108 17.8 82.7 17./ 2.8
114 18.2 82.8 348./ 4.2
120 18.9 83.0 343./ 6.5
126 19.5 83.1 350./ 6.2


12z GFDL.
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#404 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:15 pm

New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs. :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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#405 Postby mike815 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:16 pm

i dont like that but thee scary thing is its accually possible at least a major 3 :eek:
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#406 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:16 pm

ronjon wrote:New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs. :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation


link is not working.......better off not looking at it.....making me nervous
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#407 Postby Myersgirl » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:17 pm

ronjon wrote:New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs. :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation


I can't get the link to work
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#408 Postby canetracker » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:17 pm

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#409 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:17 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
ronjon wrote:New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs. :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation


link is not working.......better off not looking at it.....making me nervous


:eek: :eek:
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#410 Postby mike815 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:18 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php this may help even though it isnt what ur looking for i cant get the link to work either
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#411 Postby mike815 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:19 pm

thats down right scary! :eek:
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#412 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:20 pm

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#413 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:21 pm

Image
Yeah :eek:
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#414 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:22 pm

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W DRIFTING W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
TODAY AT 1900 UTC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. NUMEROUS
WEATHER MODELS PREDICT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.


2 PM Discussion.
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#415 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:28 pm

This is the strongest I've ever seen the GFDL forecast an INVEST. :eek:

898 mb. DANG.
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#416 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:29 pm

It was showing 153kts/902mb on the 00Z run last night. That wasn't pretty either.
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#417 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:32 pm

GFDL nailed the intensification of both Katrina and Rita and is seeing the same conditions ahead of this storm...an extremely favorable environment for strengthening...

The fact that those two storms got so strong in the GOM was an anomaly... with this one being in the Caribbean it's a more favorable area for intensification, with the warmer temps and all. That water hasn't been touched since July.
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#418 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:43 pm

HERRRRRES Charley...according to the 12z euro

<a href="http://imageshack.us"><img src="http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/8584/12zeuro9ac.gif" border="0" width="774" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us" /></a>
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#419 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:45 pm

Note the ridge orientation near the end of the run, pretty scary for Florida.

They have this thing just creeping along for 7 days and are initializing the system a little too far north.

Still could be a threat to the Yucatan and northern gulf coast.
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#420 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:45 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :eek: :eek:
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