Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tracyswfla]

Huh? As in Tampa?

Exactly.

That's what I thought you meant.~!

[linkerweather]

I wonder why Baynews9 in Tampa/St. Petersburg does not even mention Wilma anywhere in it's new section on the homepage and it's viewing area extends south into Sarasota County. All the other local stations mention something about it.

LinkWeather, why is that?
http://www.baynews9.com

I will go investigate. We don't go into Sarasota county but that is irrelevant it should be on our site. I will kep you guys posted. In any event, the weather info is on our site, you just have to dig a bit.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Boca Chris do you think the trough may not be potent
enough to turn it into S. FL south of Tampa?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wonder why Baynews9 in Tampa/St. Petersburg does not even mention Wilma anywhere in it's new section on the homepage and it's viewing area extends south into Sarasota County. All the other local stations mention something about it.

LinkWeather, why is that?
http://www.baynews9.com

I will go investigate. We don't go into Sarasota county but that is irrelevant it should be on our site. I will kep you guys posted. In any event, the weather info is on our site, you just have to dig a bit.

Thanks Mr. Linker!

[gatorcane]

Yeah thanks Josh, I think you and your team do a great job at Baynews9.

[tracyswfla]

I wonder why Baynews9 in Tampa/St. Petersburg does not even mention Wilma anywhere in it's new section on the homepage and it's viewing area extends south into Sarasota County. All the other local stations mention something about it.

LinkWeather, why is that?
http://www.baynews9.com

I will go investigate. We don't go into Sarasota county but that is irrelevant it should be on our site. I will kep you guys posted. In any event, the weather info is on our site, you just have to dig a bit.

Plus us Ft. Myers folks like to peek in!

[gatorcane]

Boca Chris do you think the trough may not be potent
enough to turn it into S. FL south of Tampa?

It's certainly a possibility. I think anywhere along the W. Coast of FL from Cedar Key S. to Key West is the high risk area. It's all timing at this point and it's too early to tell. My best guess would be the area from Tampa Bay south to Naples.

[ronjon]

we may see a reverse Charley situation here I'm afraid. That is, most models will predict it crossing SW. Florida but it will actually move more NE than ENE before turning ENE.

In other words, Wilma will finish off what Charley was meant to do possibly

agreed bc...the GFDL shows a true NE movement (aoa 40-45 deg) all the way from the west coast to the east coast of FL. I'd say this is more likely then a E-NE abrupt turn. I think Charley was an anomaly - a very small but intense storm that steered abruptly - given the orientation of this trough, its projected strength, and a rather large storm eventually expected to be Wilma, the more gradual NE direction looks on target. I think other storms that made an abrupt east turn were also weaker.

[gatorcane]

agreed bc...the GFDL shows a true NE movement (aoa 40-45 deg) all the way from the west coast to the east coast of FL. I'd say this is more likely then a E-NE abrupt turn. I think Charley was an anomaly - a very small but intense storm that steered abruptly - given the orientation of this trough, its projected strength, and a rather large storm eventually expected to be Wilma, the more gradual NE direction looks on target. I think other storms that made an abrupt east turn were also weaker.

Agreed. If this storm is larger it's momentum will certainly not allow a sharp nearly 90 degree turn as the GFS projects.

I still look at the 1921 track of the great Tampa Bay hurricane. It formed just a little South of where Wilma formed about 1 week later in October. Its turn was gradual and hit Tampa Bay before heading E out into the Atlantic.

This ENE turn *hopefully* will happen sooner in the SE GOM than it did in 1921.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

we may see a reverse Charley situation here I'm afraid. That is, most models will predict it crossing SW. Florida but it will actually move more NE than ENE before turning ENE.

In other words, Wilma will finish off what Charley was meant to do possibly

agreed bc...the GFDL shows a true NE movement (aoa 40-45 deg) all the way from the west coast to the east coast of FL. I'd say this is more likely then a E-NE abrupt turn. I think Charley was an anomaly - a very small but intense storm that steered abruptly - given the orientation of this trough, its projected strength, and a rather large storm eventually expected to be Wilma, the more gradual NE direction looks on target. I think other storms that made an abrupt east turn were also weaker.

If that verifies
I know it's early but I have a really sick feeling in my gut

[linkerweather]

there will be some info posted shortly. but again it will be nothing monumental. The weather info is always there.

[tracyswfla]

there will be some info posted shortly. but again it will be nothing monumental. The weather info is always there.

So when would official evacs start? 72 hours prior to landfall?

[THead]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

This from the 5:00 discussion;

ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

As I stated in a previous post, the further north it hits the weaker it will likely be.

Not according to the 18Z GFDL - kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the GFDL shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to Charley but much bigger storm).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

One correction, you don't add the forward speed onto the max wind speeds.

[ronjon]

TBH...Let's just hope it comes in south of us...I'm not wishing anyone got this storm but I don't want to see 15-20 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay or points north.

[linkerweather]

there will be some info posted shortly. but again it will be nothing monumental. The weather info is always there.

So when would official evacs start? 72 hours prior to landfall?

Beats me, that is all EOC stuff. Our news department would report the information. The decisions are made solely by the emergency managers and those decisions are made using alot of different info.

[THead]

agreed bc...the GFDL shows a true NE movement (aoa 40-45 deg) all the way from the west coast to the east coast of FL. I'd say this is more likely then a E-NE abrupt turn. I think Charley was an anomaly - a very small but intense storm that steered abruptly - given the orientation of this trough, its projected strength, and a rather large storm eventually expected to be Wilma, the more gradual NE direction looks on target. I think other storms that made an abrupt east turn were also weaker.

Agreed. If this storm is larger it's momentum will certainly not allow a sharp nearly 90 degree turn as the GFS projects.

I still look at the 1921 track of the great Tampa Bay hurricane. It formed just a little South of where Wilma formed about 1 week later in October. Its turn was gradual and hit Tampa Bay before heading E out into the Atlantic.

This ENE turn *hopefully* will happen sooner in the SE GOM than it did in 1921.

I don't think momentum has anything to do with turning a hurricane, no matter the size. The trough will pick her up and turn her and shoot her in the direction of the frontal boundary regardless. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen big ole canes turn on the dime before.

[ronjon]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

This from the 5:00 discussion;

ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

As I stated in a previous post, the further north it hits the weaker it will likely be.

Not according to the 18Z GFDL - kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the GFDL shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to Charley but much bigger storm).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

One correction, you don't add the forward speed onto the max wind speeds.

Yeah, I think you do.

[dld]

TBH...Let's just hope it comes in south of us...I'm not wishing anyone got this storm but I don't want to see 15-20 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay or points north.

NO THAT WOULDNT BE PRETTY. I think I saw on this site earlier how Tampa would fair almost as bad as N.O. anyone with a link or info to this?

[THead]

I think some here are to concerned with the cyclone's present speed. If it does turn to the northeast and come at Florida it will be as an accelerating system not a slow meandering one. Cyclones tend to put on their track shoes when they sense or impact a trough and turn northeast. It's not going to lose to much of a punch prior to making landfall and if it's racing it will pack a punch clear across the state just like we saw last year. At the moment there isn't much to steer Wilma that will not be the case later in the week if the models are right.

This from the 5:00 discussion;

ONCE WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

As I stated in a previous post, the further north it hits the weaker it will likely be.

Not according to the 18Z GFDL - kinda of a worst-case scenario with landfall near Sarasota 8 AM Sat morning at 125 mph with the storm moving near 18 mph to the NE roughly along I-4 to Daytona Beach. Add the 18 mph forward speed to the 125 mph gives you - well u know what it gives u. This storm could surprise alot of people - if it speeds up like the GFDL shows. I'm not sure I buy the intensity over slighly cooler GOM water (81-82 deg) along with some added shear but could be CAT 2 or weak CAT 3. In any case, much damage to coastal communities and even inland at that fast forward speed (i.e. won't weaken as fast, similar to Charley but much bigger storm).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

One correction, you don't add the forward speed onto the max wind speeds.

Yeah, I think you do.

No, I'm sure you don't, and I'm sure one of the pros can give us all the scientific reasons why not, because I forgot.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

TBH...Let's just hope it comes in south of us...I'm not wishing anyone got this storm but I don't want to see 15-20 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay or points north.

Me neither- that's why any chance of it going north or west of tampa
scares me...so I try to compile possibilities and see how they could
play out in all ways- going north and going south of us...
looks like a rough week