Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[El Nino]

Interesting but shear is quite uncertain I think. Maybe some interesting developments later ...

[rockyman]

Thanks, Christy! It looks like the wave at 45W has some dry air ahead of it (east of the Islands).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys here are my thoughts on the 2 waves i continue to watch....

WAVE 1....



WAVE 2...



Also i may note... june and july are peak months for african dust over the atlantic....there is already african dust moving across the atlantic so any waves the try to form will have to battle the dry air that accompanies all this dust.

you can keep track of it here....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

Actually what you have highlighted as wave #2 is too far north. That area of convection is on the very northern fringe of the wave. The wave itself actually extends MUCH further south than your circle. As you can see by the latest NHC 24 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Looks like wave #2 will be in the Caribb. tomorrow and wave #1 will be approaching the islands.

[The Hurricaner]

Extremeweatherguy:

On that link, is that TW thats on the islands gonna follow that line that takes it to new orleans or can it go somewhere else like florida?

[Windtalker1]

looks like alittle spin to me at 20/57 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[CHRISTY]

Guys here are my thoughts on the 2 waves i continue to watch....

WAVE 1....



WAVE 2...



Also i may note... june and july are peak months for african dust over the atlantic....there is already african dust moving across the atlantic so any waves the try to form will have to battle the dry air that accompanies all this dust.

you can keep track of it here....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

Actually what you have highlighted as wave #2 is too far north. That area of convection is on the very northern fringe of the wave. The wave itself actually extends MUCH further south than your circle. As you can see by the latest NHC 24 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Looks like wave #2 will be in the Caribb. tomorrow and wave #1 will be approaching the islands.

extremeweather guy that was only an example.....but yes on the latest NHC 24 hr surface forcast does clearly show the wave extends futher south. good lookin out!

here is a pic of the african dust that these waves will have to battle with...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy:

On that link, is that TW thats on the islands gonna follow that line that takes it to new orleans or can it go somewhere else like florida?

so many things can change, but if the upper air pattern was exactly the same during the following days, then a path to between New Orleans and Brownsville would look likely. However (as I said earlier), Lots can change. Everyone from NC to TX needs to watch closely.

[spinfan4eva]

FWIW, the 00z CMC model now develops both waves and has a couple of closed lows headed in the general direction of the Southeast Atlantic Coast in about 5 day

Oh yeah, heres the link...
SLP 144 hrs
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

850mb Vort
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[SouthFloridawx]

[rockyman]

The system approaching 50W continues to show signs of development....the convection has coalesced into a CDO type feature and curvature has improved...the first visibles of the morning are rolling in...these should give us more info on what's happening at the surface...wind shear is still between 10 and 20 knots (the system must stay between 10 and 15N to escape the terrible shear further north)....850 Vorticity has improved since last evening (now yellow on this map...was green last night):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html ... this means that the system is starting to spin closer to the surface...

This continues to be my #1 candidate for development

[O Town]

I agree rockyman this wave at 50W still looking good this morning, and has the most potential of developing. Shear in the east caribbean looks pretty high as of now though.


The one at 55W, further north is not looking so healthy, and looks to be getting sheared apart.

[OURAGAN]

Convection is increasing in coverage

[jusforsean]

can someone post a current model run if there is one opn the 50w

[cycloneye]

Closeup Visible Image



Place your cursor over the wave and click,and you will have a good closeup view of the wave at 50w.

[rockyman]

System appears to have some low level spin around 12.5/50.5...not well defined yet...and surely not closed off because of rapid west movement...

Most recent QuikScat shows the wave signature is strongest around 11N

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[Dean4Storms]

The wave near 50W does continue to re-fire convection for a second day now and appears at least on Satelite to have a weak circulation. It is moving a bit quick but has shown the ability thus far to hold together. If this TW increases in convection or continues like it is, it could slowly begin cyclogenesis. I think we will know if it survives today.

One note, I do see an outflow in visible coming out from the rounded area of convection moving northward from it. This would negate the assumption of a closed low.

[rockyman]

Anyone want to be on "Invest Watch"?

[cycloneye]

NHC will mention it at the Tropical Weather Outlook at 11:30 AM the earliest or at 5:30 PM but not a guarantee as it's my opinion only.

[rockyman]

What are the negatives for the system at this point?

Fast movement, dryer air in front of system, not climo favored

What else?

[WindRunner]

What else is negative?

Marginal SSTs (for now), about 27C