Convection Near Bahamas

[CHRISTY]

Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Upper-level winds in the Atlantic Basin are rendering any tropical cyclone genesis unlikely over the next day or so. That being said, a cluster of showers is currently just north of the central Bahamas. There is no indication of a surface low at this time and surface pressures are high. This is simply an upper-level low, and winds aloft continue to be hostile for any further development. The area is expected to drift toward the coast of the Southeast over the next few days. This could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is also free from any organized tropical activity.

TWC's Statement made this morning regarding the system.

well i will go with the NHC sayin this area has becoming a bit better organized.

Don't forget the last part of the NHC's statement. They basically say the same thing as TWC:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

I posted this a little up in the page.

There is probably still just a surface trough with two maxes on it and a couple of corresponding mid-level lows.conditions are only marginal for development aloft,but changes over the past few days have been very subtle,with maybe a trend of some slow organization.

[chadtm80]

I just need to know if this thing is going to be over Daytona JULY 1ST.

They said this weekend into early next week. So at this point. No. Would be long by Daytona by the first

[NBCintern]

I just need to know if this thing is going to be over Daytona JULY 1ST.

They said this weekend into early next week. So at this point. No. Would be long by Daytona by the first

thanks...

[stormtruth]

Why are there so many peeps on here who seem so negative on development? Not just this blob but there were many people saying Alberto was going to dissipate -- instead it flared up overnight despite the shear and served gourmet crow to several people. Don't you remember last year when nearly every blob seemed to develop? Didn't everything change last year forever or do many of you just think that was a very rare occurence? Didn't last year make climatology useless? Didn't storms strengthen last year despite the shear just like Alberto did already this year?

[jdray]

Last year proved that our understanding of weather is still in its infancy.

We know a lot more now than a few decades ago, but still have a lot more to learn.

[Trader Ron]

Why are there so many peeps on here who seem so negative on development? Not just this blob but there were many people saying Alberto was going to dissipate -- instead it flared up overnight despite the shear and served gourmet crow to several people. Don't you remember last year when nearly every blob seemed to develop? Didn't everything change last year forever or do many of you just think that was a very rare occurence? Didn't last year make climatology useless? Didn't storms strengthen last year despite the shear just like Alberto did already this year?

You have people on here, who think EVERY blob will develop. There are about 130 waves in a given season, out of those waves , 10-15% become a named storm. Yes, i know we had 27 named storms last year. That was a 50 year event, in my opinion.
The Hurricane season starts on August 15th, as far as i'm concerned. That doesn't mean we can't have 3-4 named storms by that time.
One more thing, some on here expected Alberto to become a Hurricane, so there is enough Crow to go around.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why are there so many peeps on here who seem so negative on development? Not just this blob but there were many people saying Alberto was going to dissipate -- instead it flared up overnight despite the shear and served gourmet crow to several people. Don't you remember last year when nearly every blob seemed to develop? Didn't everything change last year forever or do many of you just think that was a very rare occurence? Didn't last year make climatology useless? Didn't storms strengthen last year despite the shear just like Alberto did already this year?

You have people on here, who think EVERY blob will develop. There are about 130 waves in a given season, out of those waves , 10-15% become a named storm. Yes, i know we had 27 named storms last year. That was a 50 year event, in my opinion.
The Hurricane season starts on August 15th, as far as i'm concerned. That doesn't mean we can't have 3-4 named storms by that time.
One more thing, some on here expected Alberto to become a Hurricane, so there is enough Crow to go around.

why August 15th? There have been major hurricanes as early as June in the past.

[Trader Ron]

Yes, there have been major hurricanes in June and July, but very few. Most occur in later August and September.

[cycloneye]

Also August 15 marks the start of the peak of the season.

[wxmann_91]

Why are there so many peeps on here who seem so negative on development? Not just this blob but there were many people saying Alberto was going to dissipate -- instead it flared up overnight despite the shear and served gourmet crow to several people. Don't you remember last year when nearly every blob seemed to develop? Didn't everything change last year forever or do many of you just think that was a very rare occurence? Didn't last year make climatology useless? Didn't storms strengthen last year despite the shear just like Alberto did already this year?

Last year was not a normal year. Who says this year will be like last year? Shear is not a guarentee for weakening... it lessened enough to allow Alberto to strengthen in a very divergent and unstable (due to the convective maximum) environment. And remember that not every "blob" develops... the environment is important. I highly doubt that every "blob" last year developed. Don't count on this one doing it either unless the environment becomes more favorable.

[CHRISTY]

You can see on this 72hr map from the GFS, shear is forcast to be on the low side around the bahamas...

72 HR GFS MAP.


Latest 24hr Shear Tendency

[HURAKAN]

Like many in here, I still don't give my full vote of faith toward this system because the environment is not conducive at the moment for development. Nevertheless, the system has gone a step forward today by developing some vortexes at the surface, something that has been missing since the disturbance began to take shape in the Bahamas. At the same time, I won't say that the system wouldn't develop because there's still time for shear to decrease and for the system to have a shot at Beryl. Lets just keep an eye on it for the next few days.

[The Hurricaner]

Can someone provide a link to those GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, etc. models.

[CHRISTY]

Can someone provide a link to those GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, etc. models.

Knock yourself out..... christy

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... index.html
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models.html
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500 (Then select North America)
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

[Trader Ron]

Christy, can't you come up with a few more? j/k..

[storms in NC]

it is funny how one little Blop can get 22 pages

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

The low should be inland over FL in 72 hours and moving WNW.

[cheezyWXguy]

alomst 22 pages

[wzrgirl1]

Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Upper-level winds in the Atlantic Basin are rendering any tropical cyclone genesis unlikely over the next day or so. That being said, a cluster of showers is currently just north of the central Bahamas. There is no indication of a surface low at this time and surface pressures are high. This is simply an upper-level low, and winds aloft continue to be hostile for any further development. The area is expected to drift toward the coast of the Southeast over the next few days. This could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is also free from any organized tropical activity.

TWC's Statement made this morning regarding the system.

well i will go with the NHC sayin this area has becoming a bit better organized.

Don't forget the last part of the NHC's statement. They basically say the same thing as TWC:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

I posted this a little up in the page.

There is probably still just a surface trough with two maxes on it and a couple of corresponding mid-level lows.conditions are only marginal for development aloft,but changes over the past few days have been very subtle,with maybe a trend of some slow organization.

Christy,

What does the term two maxes mean?

[cheezyWXguy]

it means two vortexes