91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[HURAKAN]

Convection could be trying to increase on its eastern side.

[Thunder44]

It's becoming unlikely this storm will develop in to TD before it hits Florida coast. It looks like the surface low is moving quickly ahead of the ULL to it's SW and is going to move more westward move across over South or Central Florida tonight or tomorrow. It may emerge back over the Gulf and try to develop again before it gets absorbed by the cold front coming into the east.

[boca]

Looks like the ULL is over Great Abaco and moving almost due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Not a lot of obs out over the water, but what few there are indicate a low center near 28N/79W, just north of Freeport. But there are no thunderstorms anywhere around the low, just a low-level swirl. Strongest winds are about 400 nautical miles northeat of the surface low, a classic sign of a cold-core system. Chances that this will become TD 1 or Beryl are diminshing considerably. Just can't develop without convergence/convection:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl6.gif

[Nimbus]

I thought if you had a ULL and a trough both with counterclockwise circulation you would usually have an area of high pressure between them?

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060624 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 1200 060625 0000 060625 1200 060626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 49.0W 34.7N 50.4W 35.0N 52.0W 35.0N 53.6W
BAMM 34.1N 49.0W 34.8N 50.4W 35.4N 52.0W 35.9N 53.6W
A98E 34.1N 49.0W 35.0N 50.2W 35.0N 52.1W 33.8N 53.9W
LBAR 34.1N 49.0W 34.9N 50.2W 35.9N 51.8W 36.8N 53.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 1200 060627 1200 060628 1200 060629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.6N 55.6W 33.4N 60.4W 33.1N 65.9W 34.2N 69.3W
BAMM 36.3N 55.4W 36.8N 59.3W 38.0N 64.2W 41.0N 67.0W
A98E 32.1N 55.6W 29.0N 60.1W 27.6N 62.5W 28.5N 60.4W
LBAR 37.2N 55.1W 36.8N 58.1W 33.8N 62.5W 32.0N 64.6W
SHIP 39KTS 33KTS 26KTS 22KTS
DSHP 39KTS 33KTS 26KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 47.7W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 46.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1019MB OUTPRS = 1025MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z BAM models run.I only post this for information only as I know the models are not good to look at right now without a well defined low.

[Thunder44]

Luis these model runs are not for the 91L. This says 92L. The coordinates are for another area in the Atlantic.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[webke]

NRL is now showing 92L

[clfenwi]

Here's the 91L run...

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060624 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 1200 060625 0000 060625 1200 060626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.3N 76.8W 27.7N 78.3W 28.2N 79.8W 29.1N 81.0W
BAMM 27.3N 76.8W 27.5N 78.1W 28.1N 79.5W 29.0N 80.6W
A98E 27.3N 76.8W 27.5N 78.4W 27.6N 79.8W 28.2N 80.8W
LBAR 27.3N 76.8W 27.8N 78.2W 28.6N 79.5W 30.0N 80.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 1200 060627 1200 060628 1200 060629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 82.0W 36.4N 81.5W 45.7N 78.0W 52.5N 67.3W
BAMM 30.4N 81.4W 36.0N 80.1W 44.3N 75.5W 49.4N 66.0W
A98E 29.3N 81.2W 34.6N 80.4W 43.6N 73.5W 49.3N 56.3W
LBAR 31.8N 81.1W 38.6N 79.6W 49.1N 73.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 56KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 36KTS 29KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.3N LONCUR = 76.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 27.3N LONM12 = 74.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[kenl01]

What a diffference a year can make !

Interestingly, when taking a closer look at water temps from the Navy site compared to a year ago, there seem to be significant differences, as mentioned above. I remember last year at this time the distribution of global water temps was much warmer than this year, especially over the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans. Many areas this year are -1C to -3C below average as of late. I remember the exact opposite last year at this time.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

[cycloneye]

Luis these model runs are not for the 91L. This says 92L. The coordinates are for another area in the Atlantic.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Oh yeah,these things happen.

[cycloneye]

24/1145 UTC 27.7N 76.2W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


We can say adios to 91L.

[Emmett_Brown]

This one is actually starting to look like a week tropical wave, which we havnt seen in a while here in FL. I kind of miss the regular wave passages we used to get. I guess so many waves formed into storms over the past several years, it seemed that we didnt have many waves... instead we got full blown storms.

Yup... not enough convergence to get storms firing. The pro mets on the board were right all along.

[Emmett_Brown]

ok... not that this thing is making much of a come back, but now that we have declared it dead, it is showing modest signs of life... very modest, but some slight organization and increase in convection to the NE of the previous naked swirl... still think it is too little too late, but at least we might still get some rain here in FL. I should mow the lawn today, could be wet tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

What a diffference a year can make !

Interestingly, when taking a closer look at water temps from the Navy site compared to a year ago, there seem to be significant differences, as mentioned above. I remember last year at this time the distribution of global water temps was much warmer than this year, especially over the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans. Many areas this year are -1C to -3C below average as of late. I remember the exact opposite last year at this time.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

I think we determined their graphics are bad..something is to inconsistant.. or were going into a ice age..lol

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85352

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

UPDATE
MORNING MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY CENTER THAT WAS EVIDENT YESTERDAY ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC NOW ROTATING SOUTHWEST
TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
METRO PALM BEACH AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NOW HAS A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHOULD CHANGE TO LAND AREAS AS HEATING CONTINUES
AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE METRO EAST COAST AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE FROM ANY
SEABREEZE THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF COAST AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND
GULF SEABREEZE ALLOW SOME CONVERGENCE THERE ALSO. TREND OF ALL
MODELS IS TO BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ONSHORE CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
ACCURATE SO FAR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW SO WILL
ONLY MAKE MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO WINDS AND POPS.

[drezee]

525
NOUS42 KNHC 241400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 24 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1615Z
D. 28.5N 80.5W
E. 25/1730Z TO 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INLAND.

3. TWO MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/1200Z WERE
CANCELLED BY NHC AT 24/1345Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

[Evil Jeremy]

how many invests did we have at this time last year?

[RattleMan]

how many invests did we have at this time last year?

I believe it was 94L over the Bahamas. In a few days, 95L (Bret) in the BOC.

[Evil Jeremy]

thx for the info!.