Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[cycloneye]

Hawaii is in trouble.

Forecast Track Graphic

By the time it gets to the longitud of Hilo it will have weakened a lot due to cooler waters and shear.

[curtadams]

Hawaii is in trouble.

It's in the cone - but only for a tropical storm. Also, Daniel will hit the eastern shores of the islands, which have generally low populations because it rains so much.

[Derek Ortt]

storms often intensify once they pass 150W, like Fernanda 1993, Dora 1999, and Daniel 2000

[StormScanWx]

Daniel 2000??

Looks like he may be back to get more done.

[WindRunner]

storms often intensify once they pass 150W, like Fernanda 1993, Dora 1999, and Daniel 2000

Any particular reason as to why they do this?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe the water is slightly warmer west of 150

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/sim.php

the upper low north of Kauai is moving north

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060723 1800 060724 0600 060724 1800 060725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 136.5W 15.8N 138.9W 16.1N 140.9W 16.2N 142.5W
BAMM 15.1N 136.5W 15.7N 138.9W 15.9N 140.9W 16.1N 142.2W
LBAR 15.1N 136.5W 15.8N 138.8W 16.4N 141.3W 17.1N 143.2W
SHIP 110KTS 93KTS 77KTS 65KTS
DSHP 110KTS 93KTS 77KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060725 1800 060726 1800 060727 1800 060728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 143.6W 16.4N 145.7W 17.4N 148.9W 19.4N 154.4W
BAMM 16.2N 142.9W 16.6N 144.3W 17.0N 146.8W 17.9N 151.5W
LBAR 17.7N 145.2W 19.3N 149.0W 20.6N 153.7W 21.5N 158.8W
SHIP 57KTS 52KTS 46KTS 44KTS
DSHP 57KTS 52KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 136.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 133.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 131.4W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 952MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 215NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 110NM

[Cyclenall]

Cloud tops got colder this morning but now they are starting to warm again slightly. The eye looked ragged and crappy last night but it has gotten better during the past 3 hours. Strange how one part of the cyclone gets worse and then the other gets better.

[Derek Ortt]

This has also accelerated (good job as usual with the subtropical ridge, GFS).

We could see this impact hawaii as early as late Thursday

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still a very nice looking hurricane with a round eye with a ring of deep convection. Not what it once was but still aroud 110 to 115 knots. If it stays more south and comes up from the southwest then it will likely be stronger then it would be if it go's in from the west.

[cycloneye]

246
WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...HOWEVER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 102 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KT.

THE HURRICANE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
285/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE
THE RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOST MODELS...RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WEAKENS
DANIEL FAR TOO RAPIDLY AND THEN STALLS THE REMNANTS NEAR 140W IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THE GFDL HAS
CONTINUED TO FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE RIDGING AND KEEPS
THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS.

DANIEL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IS MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5....THE SHIPS MODEL IS
FORECASTING SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE
TO THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CALCULATE
SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING
THAN SHIPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.3N 137.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Coredesat]

Well, if Daniel makes it to 160W, we could have another EPAC-CPAC-WPAC crossover. SSTs warm up pretty good past there:



I kinda doubt it will, though, because shear's really high in that area.

[Derek Ortt]

Daniel may have to cross a 13,000 ft mountain before seeing those warmer waters

[StormScanWx]

Will Daniel advisories and discussons still be issued by the NHC after he crosses the 140?

[Derek Ortt]

CPHC (although, if you have been following nwhhc, updates of course will be continued and full forecasts start tonight)

[Thunder44]

Honolulu NWS seems to be getting more concered about this storm now. Exceprt from this morning's AFD:

A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE DANIEL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
1250 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ISSUED BY
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI...HAS DANIEL CROSSING 140W
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MONDAY MORNING. THOUGH DANIEL CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN...THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES DANIEL 160 MILES
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW OR WHETHER DANIEL
WILL AFFECT ISLAND WEATHER. WIND SWELL BUILT UP BY THE STORM MAY
REACH THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...AND DANIEL ITSELF MIGHT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ASSUME FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY FOR
DANIEL ONCE IT CROSSES 140W.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/AFDHFO

[cycloneye]

Will Daniel advisories and discussons still be issued by the NHC after he crosses the 140?

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will do the advisories once Daniel passes 140w.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

[shaggy]

sorry if this is slightly off topic but wasnt there a storm a few years back that crossed the dateline and then turned around and came back?If this is correct does anyone remember the name and year?

[Derek Ortt]

John 1994