99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

The convection does not seem to be flaring up and down like a typical tropical wave so probably some development is taking place. I also noticed too last year when a developing storm would wane a little bit then intensify.

Same here. I think that is what this one is doing.

[vacanechaser]

It does not have a lot of moisture to work with here. The closer to 55-60 it get you will see the moisture start to come into it. You also want it to come up to the north some too.

true, northward would certainly be better... but the air is not that dry around it... plus, these things throw so much moisture and heat into the air, they do create their own enviornment if they can get strong enough...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like this could become a large storm if it developed.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 28, 2006

A westward-moving tropical wave is located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system has changed
little in organization this morning. However...some slow
development of this system is possible over the next day or two.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

[Derek Ortt]

about what I expected the TWO... though it may seem a tad on the bullish side

[TampaFl]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Scorpion]

about what I expected the TWO... though it may seem a tad on the bullish side

What inhibiting factors do you see? Environment looks favorable, except for the SAL of course. But if it keeps south it should avoid it.

[Derek Ortt]

poor organization for starters

If there is nothing well-organized, it really doesn't matter how favorable the atmosphere is. Plus, there is a lack of surface inflow

[Rieyeuxs]

From what I can see, this invest has got to plow through a lot of dry air before we'll see much more significant development. I doubt the NHC will TD it until it clears the dry air (if it holds together through the dry air).

[vacanechaser]

poor organization for starters

If there is nothing well-organized, it really doesn't matter how favorable the atmosphere is. Plus, there is a lack of surface inflow

all things we have seen in the past... nothing new.... seen a lot of systems down played on here when there is no real organization and people give little chance and they have gone on to be decent hurricanes... its early... everything has a starting point... looks better than alot of things coming from this part of the world so far...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Resaerch Team

[cycloneye]

Jeff Masters discussion



Above is Jeff Masters take on this tropical wave.

[vacanechaser]

From what I can see, this invest has got to plow through a lot of dry air before we'll see much more significant development. I doubt the NHC will TD it until it clears the dry air (if it holds together through the dry air).

there is not that much dry air around it... look at the sat image posted by me above... the air is not that dry.. and besides, dry air does not stop the NHC from upgrading something... the big key right now is, no closed low... it is open to the west from what i can see..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Resaerch Team

[brunota2003]

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1215 UTC 8.2N 36.6W TOO WEAK 92L

maybe a little accident placing in 92L instead of 99L? I guess...but regardless that is what was there...

[x-y-no]

The convection is a fair bit ahead of the wave axis. There's about 20 knots of easterly vertical shear in the area.

I do think this will develop, but only gradually.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Based on the GFS model, wind shear is forecast to be favorable to marginally favorable for development in the next 3 days...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[wxman57]

Here's a McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99La.gif

I believe I can see some mid-level rotation where I placed the X. Probably no rotation at the surface. Looks like it's becoming elongated now (the convection). Doesn't look nearly impressive now as it did on the last visible images yesterday. May be a 10-20% shot at development, though.

['CaneFreak]

I have seen this before...maybe the convection will pinwheel around and form a decent center and then pressures might start falling a bit...I like the look of the cloud envelope...looks like it will be a decent storm if it can fight off the 40 % humidity and 15-20 knots of shear....we'll see.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering I have seen much weaker systems than this develop, I think this one has a decent shot.

[cheezyWXguy]

it doesnt need to fall very much...according to NRL its 1009mbs

[x-y-no]

Here's a McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99La.gif

I believe I can see some mid-level rotation where I placed the X. Probably no rotation at the surface. Looks like it's becoming elongated now (the convection). Doesn't look nearly impressive now as it did on the last visible images yesterday. May be a 10-20% shot at development, though.

Yeah, I think there may be a bit of mid-level circulation there. The surface wave axis is way behind this, though. Just approaching 35W.