Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ooops Double Post

In any case though this system could really develop.
SHIPS takes this up to a 65 KT Hurricane...which doesn't
surprise me since the waters in the Caribbean can support
a strong hurricane...and conditions are becoming more
favorable for development shear-wise as well.

Now I do not want development...I'd be perfectly happy
if I never saw a storm again...but mother nature has a mind
of her own...

[ConvergenceZone]

All I can say is watch out for Debby. That is my ex-wife's name!

hehe, a friend at work just told me the same thing. He said it's his ex-wife's name. He said that if Debbie forms it will target the male population.

[Epsilon_Fan]

it can do it

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

[NONAME]

What do you think Derek about the NHC 530 Outlook

[ConvergenceZone]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

So our eyes ren't deceiving us after all . Nice to see they are seeing it too! I noticed they mentioned tonight perhaps? Hmm, not sure if that will happen but if the convection continues, tomorrow for sure.

[miamicanes177]

They are calling the flight 2 a cyclone instead of invest. I think last time they both said invest.

[ConvergenceZone]

good call Dean and Sanibel and anyone else who spotted the convection over the center............ let's just see what happens.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting fact the name "Debby" has been used more often than nearly all other Atlantic TC names. "Florence" is another one that has seen more than it's fair share of usage.

[Thunder44]

They are calling the flight 2 a cyclone instead of invest. I think last time they both said invest.

That's pretty much standard procedure. Assuming the first recon flight finds a tropical cyclone.

[HouTXmetro]

So is going north or south of the Big Isle?

[Stormavoider]

Interesting fact the name "Debby" has been used more often than nearly all other Atlantic TC names. "Florence" is another one that has seen more than it's fair share of usage.

I hope it will continue to be used!!

[Sanibel]

See if this is a down-pulse and the next burst shows red signature IR.

[cycloneye]

bvigal,here is a good site where you can get more rapidly the daily Plan of the day and the other links to the recon data.

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wxdata.htm

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks Convergence. Like the NHC stated if the convection will persist there is no way this won't make it to TD status. It is in a more favorable UL environment, increasing SST's and already appears to have a circulation.

Now the big question will become where is it headed? I think a deeper system stays on a more westerly course heading through the Windwards and into the Eastern Carib. From there the Ridge is forecasted to begin backing down in response to the trough expected to dig down the eastern seaboard. If it is already say south of PR by the time this trough digs down then it misses it altogether but turns more NW and heads for Cuba and eventually the GOM.

[Thunder44]

Cloud tops are starting to warm up a bit which is no suprise.

[SouthFloridawx]

All I have been seeing the past day or so is how 91L is going to die by a number of people.

Now it's gonna make it.

Let's wait and see if the convection continues. A couple of nights ago this thing looked like it would go.. if we see persistent convection and well defined inflow and also uppper outflow then we'll say this thing has a shot.

[MortisFL]

All I have been seeing the past day or so is how 91L is going to die by a number of people.

Now it's gonna make it.

Let's wait and see if the convection continues. A couple of nights ago this thing looked like it would go.. if we see persistent convection and well defined inflow and also uppper outflow then we'll say this thing has a shot.

I know its ridiculous..

[Bailey1777]

It's still expanding though. How close do our pro-mets think we are to a TD?

[Brent]

Debby? Is that you?