Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

I concur, 18z models indicate a possible NW caribbean path but beyond that its too early to call. I know if I was in Jamaica or the Cayman's I would be paying serious attention to this developing situation.

Yes, althoutgh the Yucatan is probably a somewhat higher probabilty target.

BTW GO NOLES BEAT THE CANES!!

Grrrr! Them's fightin' words!

[Trugunzn]

cmc

[jlauderdal]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

not if you live in texas

Has EWG chimed in on his track guess yet?

[ROCK]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

not if you live in texas

Has EWG chimed in on his track guess yet?

I don't get it.....

[Portastorm]

You Florida guys are cruel!

Leave our Texas homeboy EWG alone ... so what if he's out at Home Depot right now getting plywood and a backup generator for Ernesto.

[Lowpressure]

Lets see this thing hold on to some convection for a while so we all do not get let down again. It looks good now, but so did Chris north of the islands. I just hear comparisons here to some big canes, this thing is still an invest. I do agree the western carib looks inviting right now so we have a major scenario playing out later in the forecast period, but for now patience and watch. Landfall way too early to tell.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey, Derek even said yesterday that he liked this storms's chances for development, and so far he's been right on this season so far.......

[ROCK]

You Florida guys are cruel!

Leave our Texas homeboy EWG alone ... so what if he's out at Home Depot right now getting plywood and a backup generator for Ernesto.

no joke AFM....just b/c we get excited doesn't me we think its coming here.....geezz.....BTW- I just left Lowes with my supplies....

[LaBreeze]

So, are most of you making these predictions saying that it is only Texas that needs to be concerned? Only S. Texas at that? Is there anything that may cause this "developing system" to deviate to the right or left of a straight shot? Just wondering on the thoughts out there and if I need to be a tad bit alert on this one.

[jlauderdal]

I'm thinking it's FAR too early to be picking a landfall zone, let alone a specific state.

not if you live in texas

Has EWG chimed in on his track guess yet?

I don't get it.....

check your PM inbox, i explained it there, would have posted on here but already recieved a PM from a mod a few weeks ago, dont need another until the season really gets going.

[curtadams]

The CMC track to the Yucatan is based on it developing in the Central Caribbean. Probably not too relevant if this forms within the next day, before even reaching the Caribbean.

[Scorpion]

I like the way 97L is looking. Definitely way more interesting than Debby. Getting my tracking map ready

[Damar91]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

[ROCK]

So, are most of you making these predictions saying that it is only Texas that needs to be concerned? Only S. Texas at that? Is there anything that may cause this "developing system" to deviate to the right or left of a straight shot? Just wondering on the thoughts out there and if I need to be a tad bit alert on this one.

no no and no...We were only joking.......Just b/c the recent models at 144hr seem to point to NW carib doesn't that will remain so.....Mexico to FL is a safe bet.... or even through the islands PR, HIS.....way to soon...

[Derek Ortt]

WNW to NW for a while

[LaBreeze]

Yes, I'm with Damar on this - any promets out there want to venture an educated guess?

[CrazyC83]

Hard to believe an Invest is stealing headlines away from a named tropical storm...

[wxman57]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

Mid level rotation increasing significantly. No clear sign of an LLC though. Convection increasing rapidly. Upper-level outflow looks excellent. I think it's going to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Long-term track? My money is to the NW Caribbean Monday night and then WNW toward northern MX or extreme south TX. A track similar to Emily, perhaps. Question is - how strong will the ridge over NE TX remain by early next week? It's been hanging in firm most of the summer.

[ROCK]

WNW to NW for a while

then after awhile???....NNW-NNE- NE???.....Pro Mets always keep you hanging...

[gatorcane]

Derek or any promet, any idea on future steering currents with this?

Mid level rotation increasing significantly. No clear sign of an LLC though. Convection increasing rapidly. Upper-level outflow looks excellent. I think it's going to develop over the next 24-48 hours.

Long-term track? My money is to the NW Caribbean Monday night and then WNW toward northern MX or extreme south TX. A track similar to Emily, perhaps. Question is - how strong will the ridge over NE TX remain by early next week? It's been hanging in firm most of the summer.

You have to start thinking though that we are fast approaching Sept - I would bet that ridge will be on its way out here in a few weeks but definitely by October.