Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

tampastorm · #401 Postby **tampastorm** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:59 pm

This looks better now then most tropical storms!

#402 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:01 pm

one thing to think about is that if it does not develop before getting to the islands and entering the Eastern Caribbean, the chances it will develop go drastically down based on climatology - the Eastern Caribbean is known to be a graveyard for waves that can't get going farther east.

Just something to think about - although I think this one will develop just before getting into the Eastern Caribbean so it won't matter :eek:

temujin · #403 Postby **temujin** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's tune down those (Going to Texas,LA etc ) because it's very very,very early for posting like that.

Right... a wobble right now could throw it off three hundred miles.

#404 Postby **hiflyer** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:02 pm

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 23 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 11.5N 59.0W
E. 24/1600Z TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 25/1800Z
NEAR 13N AND 64W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

#405 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Bob Break said shear?

Where does he get some of his forecasts from? Nothing I have seen indicates shear

Some of the models do forecast another upper low in the GOM at same time as 97L is scheduled to "possibly" enter the GOM. So maybe that is what he is foreseeing. I'm sure he did his homework (like everyone else who's a Met) before making a statement like that.

miamicanes177 · #406 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:04 pm

I did not see this posted so sorry if I missed it already...
23/2345 UTC 10.5N 56.6W T1.0/1.0 97L

LaBreeze · #407 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:04 pm

Agreed cycloneye! And it's quite irresponsible as well.

#408 Postby **TSmith274** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Bob Break said shear?

Where does he get some of his forecasts from? Nothing I have seen indicates shear

Ok, I saw the broadcast. All he said was that there is CURRENTLY some SW shear in the Carribean, and that we'll have to see if that persists. He didn't say that this would spell the end for this system. Only that the shear is one of the things he'll be monitoring. He actually said that he'll have to watch this one.

His broadcasts are almost always disarming... that's just his style. Seems that he's less of an alarmist after going with non-stop coverage for Lilly... a storm that ended up well to our west in a weakened state. He caught some flack for that. Just a guess.

#409 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:05 pm

Misshurricane wrote:about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

i dont know, sorry, but if I am correct, they have decided to send recon in regardless o fwhat happens overniht tonight.

#410 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's tune down those (Going to Texas,LA etc ) because it's very very,very early for posting like that.

Wouldn't it be funny if 97L didn't even make it into the GOM and threaten U.S. mainland. Then all of worrying would have been for nothing.

#411 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:08 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Misshurricane wrote:about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

i dont know, sorry, but if I am correct, they have decided to send recon in regardless o fwhat happens overniht tonight.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

The above from the 10:30 TWO.

They will go tommorow afternoon as at the outlook the words (If Necessary) dont appear there.

Website · #412 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:09 pm

Misshurricane wrote:about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

2pm ET.

Noles2006 · #413 Postby **Noles2006** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:11 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's tune down those (Going to Texas,LA etc ) because it's very very,very early for posting like that.

Wouldn't it be funny if 97L didn't even make it into the GOM and threaten U.S. mainland. Then all of worrying would have been for nothing.

It's happened before and why I think we should wait a few more days until goin' nutso over this thing.

#414 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:11 pm

thanks. DUH!!! Would have helped if i read the TWO!! :lol:

#415 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:12 pm

Ok I am kind of confused here. NHC and other mets are stating that shear is abating but, looking at this shear analysis from CIMSS site there is pretty good shear to it's north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Tendency :uarrow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Shear Analysis :uarrow:

#416 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Misshurricane wrote:about what time could I expect to see an aircraft recon tomorrow (if still needed)

i dont know, sorry, but if I am correct, they have decided to send recon in regardless o fwhat happens overniht tonight.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

The above from the 10:30 TWO.

They will go tommorow afternoon as at the outlook the words (If Necessary) dont appear there.

Well...let's be honest...if it falls apart overnight...they will cancel the flight....even with those words missing.

#417 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:13 pm

shear is not good now.

LaBreeze · #418 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:13 pm

And life along the coast goes on as usual - as normal as normal can be.

Cyclenall · #419 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:14 pm

skysummit wrote:Bob Breck in NOLA said it shouldn't be anything to worry about because it'll soon be encountering lots of shear. I tell ya....that boy will never learn.

If he really said that which I doubt he did, then he wouldn't be on TV.

Yankeegirl · #420 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:15 pm

I think last time one did this (what stormcenter said) was Chris? lol...

Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

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