Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[jlauderdal]

This is one to watch.... This is from Channel 4 WWL New Orleans

Tropical Disturbance 35 Could Become a Depression Later Today
Updated: Thursday, August 24th 2006 4:51am CDT

At 4AM CDT, Tropical Disturbance #35 was centered along 57W/58W, with a low level center developing along the wave axis south of 13N. The disturbance continues to move slightly north of due west at a fairly rapid forward speed of 18-20 mph this morning. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized within the circulation of the system, and we are beginning to feel increasingly confident that a tropical depression may form in this area over the next 12-24 hours. Air Force Reconnaissance is still scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.

Squalls associated with this disturbance have nearly reached northeastern Trinidad, and will be spreading across the remainder of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through the afternoon. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60-70 mph can be expected in the strongest squalls across the southeast Caribbean on Thursday into Friday as the disturbance moves through the area.

We still expect that steering currents will most likely take the system on a west-northwest course across the southeast to central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure remains over the southwest Atlantic. The system could reach the northwest Caribbean as early as Monday night. Conditions are favorable for strengthening and it is possible that the system could become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northwest Caribbean early next week. From there, a track into the Gulf of Mexico looks quite possible. It is too early to determine where landfall may occur, but this system has the potential to become a threat anywhere from the northern coast of Mexico northward to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. We think the risk to the eastern Gulf is lower, but cannot be ruled out at this time. We will continue to keep a very close eye on this disturbance.

that is a very old write up in the world of weather.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

This is one to watch.... This is from Channel 4 WWL New Orleans

Tropical Disturbance 35 Could Become a Depression Later Today
Updated: Thursday, August 24th 2006 4:51am CDT

At 4AM CDT, Tropical Disturbance #35 was centered along 57W/58W, with a low level center developing along the wave axis south of 13N. The disturbance continues to move slightly north of due west at a fairly rapid forward speed of 18-20 mph this morning. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms continue to become more organized within the circulation of the system, and we are beginning to feel increasingly confident that a tropical depression may form in this area over the next 12-24 hours. Air Force Reconnaissance is still scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon.

Squalls associated with this disturbance have nearly reached northeastern Trinidad, and will be spreading across the remainder of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through the afternoon. Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60-70 mph can be expected in the strongest squalls across the southeast Caribbean on Thursday into Friday as the disturbance moves through the area.

We still expect that steering currents will most likely take the system on a west-northwest course across the southeast to central Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure remains over the southwest Atlantic. The system could reach the northwest Caribbean as early as Monday night. Conditions are favorable for strengthening and it is possible that the system could become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northwest Caribbean early next week. From there, a track into the Gulf of Mexico looks quite possible. It is too early to determine where landfall may occur, but this system has the potential to become a threat anywhere from the northern coast of Mexico northward to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. We think the risk to the eastern Gulf is lower, but cannot be ruled out at this time. We will continue to keep a very close eye on this disturbance.

is carl arredondo still there? remember seeing alot on the streaming vids from katina last year.........good meteo team there at ch. 4!

[weatherman0518]

yes weatherrabbit Carl Arredondo is still here.

[BreinLa]

yes

See, this is what I am talking about I can't even figure out what your saying Yes too

[skysummit]

With all the fuss about models and potential tracks, has anyone else noticed that the convection is increasing and moving toward the center again?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

beachbum, from what I saw looking at all the model runs, landfall wouldn't be until liek Friday of next week based on current speed. That is a long way away. Plus, it is unlikely the storm, if it does wind up, will continue to truck along so quickly, so we are probably looking more into next weekend or even later for this to potentially be a threat for you. (if it heads to southern Florida, it could be sooner)

I would think that by Sunday night, the models will be in better agreement as to predicting how the ridge over the SE will be behaving and that is if there is even a storm to contend with at that point.

So American gulf-coasters can chill for a week anyway. It won't be here for a while. Watch and learn from all our great Mets on our board here. -and try to get some sleep everyone over this weekend! You will undoubtedly need the rest come next week when things could really start getting hairy!

[Damar91]

With all the fuss about models and potential tracks, has anyone else noticed that the convection is increasing and moving toward the center again?

Yes, yes indeed. I was just at the navy site and noticed just that. From the overall look, it seems that this could be a huge storm. I think this morning it was just geting itself ready to blow.

[beachbum_al]

So I have one more week to enjoy myself. Thank you.

[Stormcenter]

So do we have at least TD yet or not?

[Brent]

So do we have at least TD yet or not?

Not officially yet, but it's close.

[brunota2003]

So do we have at least TD yet or not?

no...still havent closed off the circulation completely

[Lowpressure]

So do we have at least TD yet or not?

No, not yet.

[benny]

TBPB 241830Z 19033KT 0200 RA SCT008CB OVC080 25/25 Q1012 CB ALL QUADS

Either its a TS or a strong wave. Not much in between after this wind report from Barbados.

[NONAME]

The RGb looks like banding is trying to form from the Eastern Convection!

[curtadams]

With all the fuss about models and potential tracks, has anyone else noticed that the convection is increasing and moving toward the center again?

Yes. It's still the poster child for disorganization but the swirl seems to have strengthened, there's convection closer to the center, and the convection to E and NE is expanding strongly. It has that "mean look".

[Stormcenter]

So I have one more week to enjoy myself. Thank you.

You will probably have more time than that so don't worry.

[duris]

Someone just let me know when it's over so I can tell the contractor whether to sheetrock or bother rebuilding my garage (which is supposed to happen about a week from now, of course).

[flhurricaneguy]

is the recon plane still in the storm?

[lester]

is the recon plane still in the storm?

i believe they're still in 97L

[Brent]

is the recon plane still in the storm?

Yeah... and they just found NW winds at 8 kt. I think it'll be a TD at 5.