Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Trugunzn]

Thhis is not weaking. By the looks of it it looks like it slowed down and now starting to organize it self!

[Josephine96]

I know they said it would slow down..

No need to shout btw

[Cape Verde]

The models were designed by mets, in conjunction with the programmers. It's fun to look at them, but if there was a model that worked, there wouldn't be any other models.

Models often disagree, as do mets. Neither one is right all the time, even if you kind of take a majority vote of them.

All you can do is weigh the evidence and opinions of all those involved and assign your own probabilities. I'm quite sure we'll never get the science down to the point where we can predict landfall a week out with any degree of accuracy during my lifetime. I'm pretty satisfied that we have a pretty good track record three days out.

[Scorpion]

It is very easy to notice that this is not going to be another Chantal or Claudette. Looking at the deep convection and the huge envelope it's looking quite ominous.

[Trugunzn]

I Have a bad feeling what its trying to do right now.

[Dean4Storms]

The key will be whether the High is centered over Florida or to its east. If the high is further east of Florida anywhere from TX to the FL Panhandle could get a visit. If its centered over Florida then it will most likely be a western LA or TX hit.

Also I've seen some depictions of an ULL over the western Gulf next week, I think its the one now over Cuba, if this plays out it might give us a weaker system for a TX hit whereas the other scenario with the ridge east of Florida would allow for a much stronger storm in the central or eastern Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is very easy to notice that this is not going to be another Chantal or Claudette. Looking at the deep convection and the huge envelope it's looking quite ominous.

yeah, this could be a large storm (in terms of size).

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Could this be why the latest tropical models shifted north a bit?

Them Bam models are Based a model behind I believe. So the 00z runs were based on the 18z GFS. Which brings me to a sortof a Question kinda sorta??? Why do we look at the Bam's/GFDL when they are based on the GFS which does not even show the system? I notice the NHC does look at these models as well as the GFDL which are based on the GFS meanwhile, the GFS doesnt even know there is a closed system.

[Brent]

Named storm or #5..? Kinda curious.. I'm guessing because it's moving so fast, it may be having issues getting going.

Perhaps Ernesto @ 11.. but maybe not till tomorrow..

If my reasoning is way off base, excuse it

I don't think so at 11... but defintely tomorrow IMO.

[ronjon]

Based on the latest model runs I'd expect the NHC track to shift northward in the 3-5 day time frame. The 5 PM track is now on the south side of the guidance.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[wxman57]

The latest GFDL details. I think it's too far east into the projected ridge. Note how much faster it is than the NHC forecast, though:

HOUR: .0 LONG: -62.63 LAT: 12.09 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.18
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -63.53 LAT: 12.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.26 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.64
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -64.69 LAT: 12.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.80
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -65.97 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.13
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -66.97 LAT: 13.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -67.94 LAT: 13.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.13
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -69.11 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.41
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -70.29 LAT: 15.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.97 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.15
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -71.27 LAT: 15.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.38
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.09 LAT: 16.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.63
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -73.05 LAT: 17.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.81
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -74.31 LAT: 18.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.99
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.65 LAT: 19.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.25
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.94 LAT: 20.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.12
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.41 LAT: 21.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.39
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.77 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.42
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -81.07 LAT: 22.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.56
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.14 LAT: 22.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.12
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.25 LAT: 23.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.53
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -84.45 LAT: 24.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.49
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.37 LAT: 24.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.55
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.94 LAT: 25.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.08

[flyingphish]

If the ULL to the west of the disturbance moves west, in tandem..it could ventilate the depression and make it stronger. This possibly could be a very powerful storm. Unfortunately..if this happens..somebody suffers. There is no fish solution on this one.

[Air Force Met]

Named storm or #5..? Kinda curious.. I'm guessing because it's moving so fast, it may be having issues getting going.

Perhaps Ernesto @ 11.. but maybe not till tomorrow..

If my reasoning is way off base, excuse it

I don't think so at 11... but defintely tomorrow IMO.

No Ernesto at 11....gonna have to wait until tomorrow...

[ronjon]

Could this be why the latest tropical models shifted north a bit?

Them Bam models are Based a model behind I believe. So the 00z runs were based on the 18z GFS. Which brings me to a sortof a Question kinda sorta??? Why do we look at the Bam's/GFDL when they are based on the GFS which does not even show the system? I notice the NHC does look at these models as well as the GFDL which are based on the GFS meanwhile, the GFS doesnt even know there is a closed system.

True the GFS doesn't reflect the deeper cyclone but...the GFS is one of the two big global models (the other the European) which really model the large scale evolution of weather patterns on the globe. If you go to the HPC discussions, they will typically choose between the GFS or Euro or some blend to decide on long-range forecasts. They also look at UKMET, CMC, NOGAPs too.

[deltadog03]

Named storm or #5..? Kinda curious.. I'm guessing because it's moving so fast, it may be having issues getting going.

Perhaps Ernesto @ 11.. but maybe not till tomorrow..

If my reasoning is way off base, excuse it

I don't think so at 11... but defintely tomorrow IMO.

No Ernesto at 11....gonna have to wait until tomorrow...

T numbers are up...2.0??

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Based on the latest model runs I'd expect the NHC track to shift northward in the 3-5 day time frame. The 5 PM track is now on the south side of the guidance.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Yeah, I have to agree, NHC is now alone with the exception of the clipper 5 (climo model). Hey, Isnt it Stewarts shift???? If so, could be an interresting read tonight

[Scorpion]

If Stewart is doing it then I am definitely staying up.

[crab_storm]

he'll be named at 10pm. looks like he has everything he needs. Even the NHC forcast shows it being a storm by 2am.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to me that the LLC is already slightly north of the NHC forecasted track.

[JonathanBelles]

will there be a 2am?