TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Cyclenall]

I have a feeling this storm will confuse us as much as Chris did..

However, I do not think this one will meet the same fate.

This is the best post I have seen in this thread so far. I agree with it.

As for Ernesto, why is everyone saying it looks really awful when it looks nearly the same yesterday? It had a good blow-up of convection in the early morning hours but less now. Mike last night on Talk'en Tropics said this is NOT Chris. Now it all of a sudden is Chris 2.0? Hmm....

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed Extremewx

[Noles2006]

Heh. It's amazing what two people can come up with while looking at the same thing. I see a storm that is slowly getting it's act back together as the convection closes in on the LLC, and the LLC is moving a hair north of due west. I definitely do not see a NW movement.

[storms in NC]

I wish the d!@# thing would die completely. Tired of dealing with it.

You do this for a living right? Why don't you like your job? I know it can be a pain in the butt at times but you must have love it at one time or you wouldn't be doing what you do. Take a deep breath and say what the hey deal with what we have. At least it is not Katrina. Small storms are better and not have to worry to much over what I big storm would do.

You do a good job don't let things get you down.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, on CNN it says "Tropical Depressoni 5 could be Tropical Storm Soon" Does that mean that it's not officially classified? Why would they say this?

[skysummit]

These boards get hilarious at times like this. Everyone in Texas sees it going west, however, people in Florida sees it going NW.

[Trugunzn]

The Pro Mets arent concerned of this thing weakening at Easternuswx. They think a secondary LLC will form under the convection and it will be far enough away from shear from it weakening. Some still think this will be a big probalom early in week.

[TexWx]

"Okay, on CNN it says "Tropical Depressoni 5 could be Tropical Storm Soon" Does that mean that it's not officially classified? Why would they say this?"

Hype Machine

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling this storm will confuse us as much as Chris did..

However, I do not think this one will meet the same fate.

This is the best post I have seen in this thread so far. I agree with it.

As for Ernesto, why is everyone saying it looks really awful when it looks nearly the same yesterday? It had a good blow-up of convection in the early morning hours but less now. Mike last night on Talk'en Tropics said this is NOT Chris. Now it all of a sudden is Chris 2.0? Hmm....

I know. I think some people like to confuse short-term occurances with the final fate of the system. If one minute it looks good you will hear, "This will be a Cat. 5!", and then the next second when it looks bad you hear, "POOF"! Seems like some people still think it is 2005, and do not remember that it is NORMAL for storms to go through these cycles.

[Derek Ortt]

14.8N?

Not sure what sat you are using, but the fixes I am getting are all coming in at 14.3 or lower, closer to 14.2 or 14.1

[Noles2006]

Convergence - The advisory is not out and their METS suck, basically.

skysummit - Hey now, this Floridian seen a westward movement! Don't be so quick to generalize!

[Extremeweatherguy]

These boards get hilarious at times like this. Everyone in Texas sees it going west, however, people in Florida sees it going NW.

well technically it IS going west according the the recon planes which were just out there. I'm not seeing it that way because I live in TX.

[Noles2006]

Kevin_Cho - Oh, there's no doubt it weakened earlier today. I'm thinking it's in the process of reorganizing now, though.

[Stormcenter]

Okay, on CNN it says "Tropical Depressoni 5 could be Tropical Storm Soon" Does that mean that it's not officially classified? Why would they say this?

I thought it already was a TS?

All of these posts concerning how strong or weak and where TD5, no I mean Ernesto, no I mean TD5 is going are making my head spin.

[skysummit]

Convergence - The advisory is not out and their METS suck, basically.

skysummit - Hey now, this Floridian seen a westward movement! Don't be so quick to generalize!

Sorry Nole! Let me rephrase myself......Florida Peninsulans (is that a word? )

[HardCard]

Ok,yeah.. Really.....why was the thread title updated? I see no official confirmation that this is a tropical storm at this time

[temujin]

Sanibel, while I respect your observations : heart is simply unscientific and should not be used. Even if it means much more typing. A storm actually is the sum of its environmental conditions. The exact same storm in a different environment will not be the exact same storm. I am not well versed in meteorology, but there is no such thing as a storm 'fighting shear'.

Sometimes shear enhances convection, which is one reason I think this is a popular view.

Essential to human communication is a phenomena known as "figurative language." One form of "figurative language" is "anthropomorphism", which is the attribution of human qualities and emotions to non-human things.

I understood what Sanibel meant. Saying that a storm has "heart" is short hand for saying "this storm has continued to exist in the face of adverse conditions, and we should not discount the possiblity that, for reasons currently unknown to us, it will continue to exist."

Personally, I'd rather say that the storm has "heart." I think an English teacher would agree.

[skysummit]

EWG...I just like to pick on you. What did JB say today? Anything yet?

[jasons2k]

Okay, on CNN it says "Tropical Depressoni 5 could be Tropical Storm Soon" Does that mean that it's not officially classified? Why would they say this?

It hasn't been officially classified yet and really the thread title should reflect that per precedent. This jacking with the thread titles the last 2 days IMO has done more harm than good. All it does is confuse people.

[theworld]

I thinketh the shear is backin off a bit ?