Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[BensonTCwatcher]

This is probably one of the transient bursts of convection we read about in the Disco. It does look be getting closer and closer to covering the LLC though.

This system has been "leaning back" for a couple days....strange. It keeps it's strenght with the LLC out in front. Kind of like Ernesto can do the limbo under the upper/mid level shear.

[Grease Monkey]

poof can be replaced with SPLAT!!!!

it could but wouldn't be very accurate. The cyclone is getting his limbs torn off, not getting stepped on or a bug hitting the windshield of car driving 100mph.

[PTPatrick]

I dont know about you guys, but I am praying to God, Jesus, Allah, Buddha, Shiva, Amaterasu, and who ever else will listen that this does not head to areas devastated by Katrina...

having said that, a lot will change as these next few days wear on. the models will flip flop, intesity will likely flucuate, but keep this in mind if any one says lightening wont strike twice in a couple of years: Frances and Jeanne, and to some extent Wilma(effected many of the areas that were hurt in the previous 2)...and Ivan and Dennis withing less than a year of each other less than 50 miles apart...and dust off the cobwebs, Opal and Erin of 1995.

This poses a real threat to all the areas, seems to be specifically say, Matagorda Bay TX, to Pensacola, regardless of who is "due" and who "isnt".

[Stephanie]

it's too far out to even speculate where it will hit...i'm not worried...paying attention, yes...panicing, no...it's funny to see how every little model run gets everyone all in a tizzy.

It is, but it isn't. I can understand the reasoning behind it after the last two hellish hurricane years we had. Then again, if we become too premature with doomsday predictions, we can have an out and out panic. Everyone needs to settle down but stay on top of this.

[Trugunzn]

Cold cloud tops that are around -80 degrees

[Regit]

Poof?

Max Mayfield just said in an interview that he thinks the shear won't be too bad and the storm should be just fine. I'm gonnna go with him on this.

[destro34]

what ? i see an eyes on ernesto.. here is the link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


correct me if iam wrong, but this will be a cane soon

[Noles2006]

Definitely not an eye, destro.

[skysummit]

what ? i see an eyes on ernesto.. here is the link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


correct me if iam wrong, but this will be a cane soon

NO Eye...VERY far from being a cane.

[rnbaida]

Poof?

Max Mayfield just said in an interview that he thinks the shear won't be too bad and the storm should be just fine. I'm gonnna go with him on this.

i am with you... this is max... the best forecaster out there.

[jhamps10]

I doubt it destro, it does not look like an eye to me.

If that's an eye then my home town high school football team will blow a 35-0 lead.

[curtadams]

what ? i see an eyes on ernesto.. here is the link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

correct me if iam wrong, but this will be a cane soon

No eye - the center is the coldest. But it does look like a RIC with the 00:15Z frame, shear notwithstanding.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks better then Lili in the same place if I remember right. Colder cloud tops?

[Cyclenall]

what ? i see an eyes on ernesto.. here is the link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


correct me if iam wrong, but this will be a cane soon

Is this a joke post? I'm sure you know that is just a overshooting cloud top which appears black on AVN images.

[Air Force Met]

Gotta respectfully disagree with ya here. The center is still at the NW edge of the deep convection. Also, you can see some flattening of the western side of the CDO which indicates to me that the system is still fighting some mid level westerly or northwesterly shear.

And to "top" it all off...it's really just cirrus near the LLC. The deep convection is still away from it. IF you were sitting in a boat near the LLC...you would have some low clouds...but mosly dense altostratus and cirrostratus...perhaps some rain falling out of it...but no deep convection. Thats to the east.

[WindRunner]

what ? i see an eyes on ernesto.. here is the link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

correct me if iam wrong, but this will be a cane soon

No eye - the center is the coldest. But it does look like a RIC with the 00:15Z frame, shear notwithstanding.

Hardly a RIC. Cold cloud tops just an indication of strengthening. Now if the -80C pixels continue to expand in area for the next 6 hours, then you can start to worry.

[Droop12]

Is the center located near that convection? Last visible shot I saw showed the convection moving over the center. I'd say if convection persist over the center then Ernesto will survive the shear thats ahead.

[PTPatrick]

Funny you say that, this is reminding me a little of Lili, at least with respect to possible track...actually the GFDL track looks almost dead on what Lili's was. we can only hope that if that comes to fruition, it will go down like Lili before landfall.

[SWFLA_CANE]

It almost looks as it is going more nw then wnw. I know the center is not visable but the storm in general looks to be going nw.

[Noles2006]

I dont know about you guys, but I am praying to God, Jesus, Allah, Buddha, Shiva, Amaterasu, and who ever else will listen that this does not head to areas devastated by Katrina...

Or Rita for that matter...