TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[jasons2k]

These new runs just continue to show HIGH uncertainty once it reaches the gulf.

Looks like they are coming into agreement if you ask me.

Hardly ^^^

[TSmith274]

It will lilkely see-saw for the next 3 or 4 days, so nobody should feel relieved/panicked off a single set of runs.

Goodnite all.......

I'll end my night on those words of wisdom. Well said.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_model.html


NOLA/AL/MS you are on the clock.

Looks like to we have a possible storm hooking NNE at end of the run.
I think the Florida panhandle may be under the gun when all is said and done. But again this is WAY TOO early to call and the models will shift around again. Stay tune.

[PTPatrick]

Have to agree. think the big take home message at least with the leaster runs of everything is South Texas is becoming less likely...NWFL becoming a little more Likely...Galveston to Pensacola very under the gun. On that not, Lets see if GFDL has him back in the Bahamas in the morning

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks SO FL. The run before that the GFDL had it hitting Galveston as a 4.

You can see at the top of this graphic what time the run is for each model.

[AL Chili Pepper]

the error on a 5 day forecast is about 300NM

Yeah, that's like roughly the TX/LA line to Cedar Key, FL. 72 hours is when my eye starts twitching.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks

[Stormcenter]

Wow...headed right at mobile bay/Gulf shores.

Well, I suspect with the 5 Am NHC will likely shift slightly North, possibly with a little more hint of NNW turn at the end...I BET they still wont have anything to indicitive of a NOLA hit.

Well they shouldn't because looking at this run it misses N.O. to the east.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I do think the trough will have an affect on Ernesto. As have been the cases before models tend to recurve these storms too soon this time of year. Also remeber it is at the end of August and fronts making it down the coast are pretty rare . Models always seem to make fronts too strong during the summer. It will probably be very weak and stay along north LA,MS, ALA,GA,etc.. Just as this last one did for us this week. It will break down the ridge just enough to give Ernesto some northerly componet, but not a recurvature towards the NE. That is just my opinion and I know it is almost a week out, but that is what I think will happen.

[ronjon]

Since the GFDL is run off the GFS, I'm not surprised with the shift NE. What bothers me is that the 00Z GFS stalls the storm south of Pensacola and meanders it toward the south and east for several days. I think the trough that created the weakness and turn moves off and leaves the storm w/o steering currents - according to the latest GFS run - I hope this doesn't pan out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

I do think the trough will have an affect on Ernesto. As have been the cases before models tend to recurve these storms too soon this time of year. Also remeber it is at the end of August and fronts making it down the coast are pretty rare . Models always seem to make fronts too strong during the summer. It will probably be very weak and stay along north LA,MS, ALA,GA,etc.. Just as this last one did for us this week. It will break down the ridge just enough to give Ernesto some northerly componet, but not a recurvature towards the NE. That is just my opinion and I know it is almost a week out, but that is what I think will happen.

I'm thinking the same thing. What type strength is the new GDFL showing now?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Does anyone have the GFDL run that showed it hitting Galveston before this last run?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Near the 11pm advisorie where the center was then is theres is data coming in that the center is now near there. Which would make it east into the convection.

[PTPatrick]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

That site still has the cat 4 galveston from 18Z

[SouthFloridawx]

Does anyone have the GFDL run that showed it hitting Galveston before this last run?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[AL Chili Pepper]

Does anyone have the GFDL run that showed it hitting Galveston before this last run?

126 hrs just offshore.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[miamicanes177]

...Air Force plane finds a better organized Ernesto...

Repeating the 200 am AST position...14.7 N...69.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks

[Brent]

Well if this trend continues we'll probably have a hurricane sooner rather than later.

[HouTXmetro]

...Air Force plane finds a better organized Ernesto...

Repeating the 200 am AST position...14.7 N...69.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

What, the center lost lattitude? 14.8 down to 14.7? It was 14.8 in the 11PM advisory.