T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[storms in NC]

Well things look a little better for Louisiana. I'm quite surprised by the model shifts but it's hard to ignore them. Of course there's still plenty of time and I know the model runs will change again.

I wouldn't hold my breath. It is just floping around still. Everyone is saying wait till monday and they will have a hold on it. It will move back and forth till then.

[SouthFloridawx]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060826 1800 060827 0600 060827 1800 060828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 71.2W 17.0N 73.3W 18.1N 75.3W 18.8N 77.2W
BAMM 15.7N 71.2W 16.8N 73.6W 17.8N 75.9W 18.6N 77.8W
A98E 15.7N 71.2W 16.7N 73.3W 17.5N 75.3W 18.4N 77.2W
LBAR 15.7N 71.2W 16.9N 73.2W 18.5N 75.2W 19.9N 77.2W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800 060831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 78.9W 20.2N 82.2W 21.1N 85.4W 21.9N 88.2W
BAMM 19.2N 79.6W 20.2N 83.0W 21.1N 85.8W 21.8N 88.0W
A98E 19.6N 79.2W 21.4N 83.6W 23.2N 87.5W 24.3N 89.9W
LBAR 21.1N 78.7W 22.7N 81.4W 23.5N 83.6W 24.4N 84.7W
SHIP 83KTS 96KTS 98KTS 96KTS
DSHP 82KTS 89KTS 91KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[Grease Monkey]

Agreed. Tracks will change constantly depending a lot on the foward speed of the system, but suprisingly wilma was an exception.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone else notice these models all have Ernesto moving NW when he really isn't right now?

[ROCK]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

dude, if you are going to pop off like that do it in the PM's....thanks...

[Bailey1777]

Out of all of those A98E is about the closest to what is really happening as far as the set up right now IMO.

[Scorpion]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

There is NO way this is hitting the FL peninsula.

[gatorcane]

how strong is the ridge to the north.....does anybody have the pressure? You would think a strong ridge would be keeping Ernie more West.

[jasons2k]

Woah...guys, can you all fill me in, when did all of the models started to trend to the east? What's going on?

When the GFS went insane. Now the other models are following suit and people are buying into the nonsense - page after page.

[JonathanBelles]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

There is NO way this is hitting the FL peninsula.

at this point it is unpredictable

[dwg71]

Does anyone else notice these models all have Ernesto moving NW when he really isn't right now?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Just look at XTRAP, its because of center relocation, but its following these models in the short term. maybe better luck later for you EWG, I'm rooting for you.

[wxman57]

Out of all of those A98E is about the closest to what is really happening as far as the set up right now IMO.

And it's not even a real model. It's a climatology model. Doesn't look at what's happening now, just what happened over the decades.

[Damar91]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

There is NO way this is hitting the FL peninsula.

at this point it is unpredictable

Finally some sense. That is all I have been trying to say. NOONE knows where this is going to end up. We should make a pact not to look at any models for 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

Does anyone else notice these models all have Ernesto moving NW when he really isn't right now?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Just look at XTRAP, its because of center relocation, but its following these models in the short term. maybe better luck later for you EWG, I'm rooting for you.

you mean for EWG to actually get a storm?

[swimaster20]

Look, we have had the input of many pro-mets that the GFS likely won't verify. It could, but it probably won't. A whole slew of other models are run off of the GFS, so that is why you have many models shifting east. Ya'll shouldn't be jumping on this flip flop yet. Granted, it could verify, but it is highly unlikely.

[JonathanBelles]

56 kts at the surface via dropsonde

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

There is NO way this is hitting the FL peninsula.

Then where is it going to hit? Please let me know in case I need to prepare.

[Damar91]

If we only truly knew.....

[El Nino]

56 kts at the surface via dropsonde

Link ?

[Bailey1777]

That's IMO why these models this far out are so ridicolous, but people buy them. If they all had said for the past 3 days a direct hit on Galveston I still would have said "what a crock"