TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

#401 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:39 pm

26/2345 UTC 16.1N 72.2W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

ConvergenceZone · #402 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:39 pm

Rainband wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

The panhandle is part of Florida, too... and the models that show a panhandle hit don't turn it for a few days. It doesn't have to turn now to hit Florida.
Save your breath. I have been gone all day and I came home and read most of all the posts. Read between the lines and you can see what I mean. Sad really after the past few seasons. I just wonder if any of the people I am talking about realize how they look to everyone else. The only thing for certain right now is Uncertainity. Weather can't be contolled it is going to happen how it happens. The fact that you want a storm doesn't mean your going to get it. Sorry for the rant but some of these posts are really annoying and a waste of space.

people need to read my :roll:

previous posts which explained my original post before they comment..

Noles2006 · #403 Postby **Noles2006** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:40 pm

Excuse my ignorance.. what is the GFDN?

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #404 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:40 pm

robbielyn wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Shouldn't there be an 8 PM advisory?
on page 17 or 18 of this thread

Thanks!

#405 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:41 pm

TPNT KGWC 270020
A. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (FIVE)
B. 26/2331Z (71)
C. 16.5N/2
D. 72.2W/1
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS -26/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON
THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREES.

AODT: 4.5 (UCCR)

VAN SCHAICK/LONG

Air Force sat estimates.

PTPatrick · #406 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:41 pm

Not that it is worth a whole lot, but I think the NW motion is mostly just the system getting better organized. I think this will even back out to WNW. Having said that, the GFDL trip over the western tip of cuba then bending back seems suspect. I expect, and I will say this is just a guess...that the GFDL will shift more WNW direction sooner and keep the center over water between Jamaica and Cuba longer. All the other models do it, even GFS, which truns the system N much later than the GFDL. In the end, it looks like the track between Haiti and Jamaica, and then Cuba and Jamaica would will likely verify, but this at best, hugging the land massess, but never traversing them(except the western end of cuba)

jwayne · #407 Postby **jwayne** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:26/2345 UTC 16.1N 72.2W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

ok, now why at 16.1 and not 16.5?

Extremeweatherguy · #408 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:42 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Excuse my ignorance.. what is the GFDN?

It is a tropical model. Here is more information:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/MODEL ... /gfdn.html

El Nino · #409 Postby **El Nino** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:26/2345 UTC 16.1N 72.2W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

55 kts Luis ?

ConvergenceZone · #410 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:42 pm

CourierPR wrote:Convergence-Zone, with all due respect, the storm is southeast of Florida and currently heading northwest.

nope, it's heading west-north-west, and there's a huge difference between northwest and west-northwest The below confirms it and it was only put out 35 minutes ago.....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

CourierPR · #411 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:42 pm

Cyclone, you printed 16.1 degrees north latitude. Isn't it at 16.5?

#412 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:43 pm

CourierPR wrote:Cyclone, you printed 16.1 degrees north latitude. Isn't it at 16.5?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Praxus · #413 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:44 pm

Is it my imagination, or is it getting bigger...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Trugunzn · #414 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:45 pm

Looks like models are trending back west now.

HouTXmetro · #415 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:45 pm

Does the GFDN have any credibility shifting way towards the middle TX coast? Also I boticed the modles have moved back west on the last run while the NHC has moved east, in addition many mets had low confidence in the eastern solution? Should we expect more shifts to the west given that the GFDN is far west?

Scorpion · #416 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:45 pm

Yes, its getting MUCH bigger. Not good.

Derek Ortt · #417 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:46 pm

GFDN is IDENTIAL to the GFDL, just with NOGAPS initial and boundary conditions instead of GFS conditions. I perfer this version of the GFDL than the GFS based one as GFS is having major problems

Extremeweatherguy · #418 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:46 pm

Derek's latest track has this still aimed toward SW Louisiana or the TX/LA border. I think that should be enough for those in TX and western LA to not sound the all clear just yet.

#419 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:46 pm

Did the latest model runs initialize near 16.5/72.2.

El Nino · #420 Postby **El Nino** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:47 pm

Praxus wrote:Is it my imagination, or is it getting bigger...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

I'm more thinking about land interaction with Hispanola. It seems to be less organised.

TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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