Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Noles2006]

Depends on the strength. A TS, even a strong one, won't have a major enough impact on Miami to cancel that game. That's Monday night....ABC.....big $$$. I know this is only vaguely weather-related, but the money dictates that the game gets played unless conditions make it impossible to do so.

I agree... however, one correction: the game is on ESPN, not ABC as it has been the past two years.

[Brent]

It is at 40mph now. Wouldn't it be highly unlikely that it would intensify that much before making landfall. I know that the seas are warm, but its only 100 or so miles away. Comments?

It could easily strengthen that much. In fact, I'd be surprised if this isn't a strong TS when it hits. It's going to have 24 hours over very warm water in an area notorious for rapidly intensifying systems.

[Damar91]

It is at 40mph now. Wouldn't it be highly unlikely that it would intensify that much before making landfall. I know that the seas are warm, but its only 100 or so miles away. Comments?

heres a comment: its 375 Miles away and has plenty of time for strengthing!

I'm sorry, I thought Cuba was only 90-100 miles away.

[jpigott]

It is at 40mph now. Wouldn't it be highly unlikely that it would intensify that much before making landfall. I know that the seas are warm, but its only 100 or so miles away. Comments?

actually, from its current position, Ernesto is more like 350-450 miles SE or Miami

[HurricaneJim]

Rapid Intesification is also a possibility once it gets over the Gulf Stream so alot of strengthening could happen.

Thank you!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[JPmia]

I think it will make a Cat. 1 landfall on Florida still.

I agree, it should strengthen.

Let me know what you are thinking here. In your Pro-Met. opinion do you expect any RI or gradual intensification? Cat 1? or more? or less?

[gatorcane]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

[gtalum]

I'm sorry, I thought Cuba was only 90-100 miles away.

Cuba is only 90 miles from Key West, but eastern Cuba is significantly further south than western Cuba, and Miami is farther north than Key West.

[Damar91]

It is at 40mph now. Wouldn't it be highly unlikely that it would intensify that much before making landfall. I know that the seas are warm, but its only 100 or so miles away. Comments?

It could easily strengthen that much. In fact, I'd be surprised if this isn't a strong TS when it hits. It's going to have 24 hours over very warm water in an area notorious for rapidly intensifying systems.

Brent, Thanks! What do you think the max out potential for this is considering the distance and sea tempatures?

[HurricaneJim]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

Damn right!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[Stratosphere747]

While yall should remain vigilant. The impression comes across that some of you are disappointed that a major is not forecasted.

Consider yourselves lucky if you get by with a minimal cat 1...

[MiamiensisWx]

wimpy, wimpy, wimpy, wimpy !. I have surfed it bigger storms than this.

Wow, lots of useful imput to the discussion there.



I don't expect a major hurricane either, but we shouldn't let guards down.

[Evil Jeremy]

everyone here should prepare for a Cat 1, even if it rols ashore as a TS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

School closures are already being planned in Seminole County for Wednsday and Thursday as a precaution. Any other schools with possible closures.

[Evil Jeremy]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

[Scorpion]

I see so many people preparing, which I think its ridiculous. I personally think the area will barely get an TS force winds, and that would probably be gusts. The gas lines are insane. Yea, no preparations here.

[Damar91]

my feeling is that it will rapidly intensify tonight and we will see a huge blowup of convection during the late night diurnal maximum. Just my gut feeling.

one word: Wilma.

Is that kind of explosion even possible where he is at?

[Brent]

From the discussion:

WE EXPECT SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT...THE
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

[Myersgirl]

It is at 40mph now. Wouldn't it be highly unlikely that it would intensify that much before making landfall. I know that the seas are warm, but its only 100 or so miles away. Comments?

It could easily strengthen that much. In fact, I'd be surprised if this isn't a strong TS when it hits. It's going to have 24 hours over very warm water in an area notorious for rapidly intensifying systems.

Brent, Thanks! What do you think the max out potential for this is considering the distance and sea tempatures?

Charlie came off Cuba as a cat 1 and went to a cat 4 in a day, I could be mistaken and I am sure that I will be corrected if that is the case

[HurricaneHunter914]

one word: Wilma.

Wilma is kinda pushing it, but if we do see a Wilma (Highly Unlikey) then Florida will be left unprepared significantly, just like during Charley.