TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[TheEuropean]

If the storm is able to develop a compact core once again, then intensification to a hurricane will be much more likely.
- Jay
KSC FL

I think intensification to a hurricane is still possible, but it has to move over water soon.

[Regit]

Will also be interesting to see if the WNW movement was just a prolonged jog that came at the wrong time (for Ernesto). If so, the track could shift back east.

[jpigott]

cuban radar continues to show increased moisture to the west and south west of the center, now lets see if Ernesto can pull that moisture into the center now that he is offshore or nearly offshore

[boca]

Radar link please

[jpigott]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[jpigott]

For what it's worth, you can start to see Ernesto's rain shield (what little there is of it) on the Mia long range radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Wx_Warrior]

new gfdl track is exact as nhc

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Pretty clustered! No doubt where it's going if it survives.

[Droop12]

Whew, back from a hard nights work guys, where do we stand?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Waiting to see if it survives..

[Toadstool]

Some of the models now put it to Tampa. It's took a forecast trip from Texas to SE Florida, now maybe it's on it's way back the other direction.

[Droop12]

Looking at the Cuban radar I can actually see the llc moving toward the coast. First time I saw a true center in 24 hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

HAHA....yea...Florida get your rain jackets and umbrellas

[Toadstool]

HAHA....yea...Florida get your rain jackets and umbrellas

There are a lot of blue-tarp roofs here in S. FL. And driving around to [finally] find a gas station without much of a line tonight, I saw a lot of roofs with the ceramic tiles just stacked waiting for workers to apply them to the roof. That is just crazy, those things will be missiles to their neighbors if this storm were to strike at any decent strength!

[Wx_Warrior]

Same here in SE TX toad...Blue roofs everywhere...That's why we are worried this season. This area by no means received Katrina damage but it was bad enough.

[Toadstool]

Same here in SE TX toad...Blue roofs everywhere...That's why we are worried this season. This area by no means received Katrina damage but it was bad enough.

Yes, nothing like Katrina. It's just the first hurricane I was through (Wilma) and amazing how long it takes things to recover, just from the material and labor demands to fix all the roofs!

[Wx_Warrior]

Some places here never recovered. Just hope for the best and believe and have faith in what you believe in.

[Wx_Warrior]

[tailgater]

Well Ernesto is very weak at this time, but on radar the low center looks to be heading west and there is some banding still evident on the eastern and southern( in Caribbean waters) edges but I don't think there will be any rapid intensifying when it does reemerge heading north maybe to Fort Myers. 50 mph TS

[Toadstool]

The latest tracks are good for the Carolina's as well (as far as intensity). They had said it was going to strengthen to a CAT 1 (and still have a hurricane watch up in the mid part of FL), but I guess they think it won't make it to that strength at all.