TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

With the forward motion of the storm added, I would think the winds will be near hurricance force upon landfall. They should at least add hurricane watches and inland hurricane watches.

I'm afraid this will be a very bad flooding event for the Carolinas. Raleigh/Durham has already been really wet recently.

Hopefully Ernesto won't stall and moves through quickly!

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

First Visible of the day. Ernesto doesn't look that wimpy any more.

[storms in NC]

From where he is I believe thats WCTI, the local ABC affiliate in Eastern NC, home of good ol Skip Waters.

That is who it was. Thank you

All I can say is I hope they are right and that TWC is wrong!! I definitly prefer the other side of this storm. They are here in the city saying it is going to hit here and I don't want any part of it. Maybe the NHC will move the forecast up some from me.

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 31, 2006



...Ernesto continues moving northward toward the Carolinas...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Flagler Beach
Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.4 north...longitude 79.9 west or about 95
miles...155 km...east of Jacksonville Florida and about 170 miles...
275 km...south of Charleston South Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward speed
are expected during the next 24 hours. This motion will take the
center of Ernesto farther away from the coast of northeast Florida
today...and could bring the center near the north and South Carolina
coasts late this afternoon or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 55 mph...90 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
mainly to the southeast of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was
996 mb...29.41 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is possible along
the Georgia coast in areas of onshore flow.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeast South
Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches...through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-
threatening flash floods. Additional isolated rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches are possible over Florida today.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late
this afternoon and tonight.

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...30.4 N...79.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...55 mph.
Minimum central pressure...996 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[seahawkjd]

Just watched channel 12. They are saying that the updated forcast path has it coming through cape fear now?

[SCMedic]

Flight level winds, according to TWC of 73mph just found in that southwestern blowup.

[george_r_1961]

Although the national media may have dropped their reports on this storm, the local mets have not. We continue to get hourly updates here. And if this thing DOES pick up again, then there might be some head shaking going on. I for one, am prepared for anything. I am more concerned over flooding that will impact our area with in SC/NC. And remember this storm still will be hitting the gulf stream.
I won't write anything off after last year.

Ditto up here in VA. When will people learn the flooding is the most dangerous product of a TC??

[Thunder44]

Flight level winds, according to TWC of 73mph just found in that southwestern blowup.

I didn't see that in the recon reports. That would be about 63kts.

[cycloneye]

Flight level winds, according to TWC of 73mph just found in that southwestern blowup.

Well the plane left the area more than a half and hour ago.

[bostonseminole]

Flight level winds, according to TWC of 73mph just found in that southwestern blowup.

Well the plane left the area more than a half and hour ago.

It's the TWC Recon plane

[SCMedic]

I didn't look at the recon, I just happened to glance at the TWC tropical update in between bits of my Corn Pops.

[seahawkjd]

Yeah didn't you know, Ted Turner is out there in his Lear sending back reports as TWC1

[tallywx]

I wager that rapid response Hurricane Warnings will go up at 11 a.m. Any storm that's strenghtening before landfall and passing the threshold of 60 mph warrants such things.

Pressure had dropped to 996 MB BEFORE that blowup of convection we're seeing now. Blowup is so intense that it's shunted the center off to the NE temporarily. Latest loop shows a Nward movement once again. Wonder if that convection will wrap all the way around to form an "eye." Then things would get interesting fast.

[cycloneye]

31/1145 UTC 30.3N 79.8W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean


For those who dont know what winds 3.5 are,here is the chart of the distint numbers of sat estimates.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[shaggy]

vortex did show a 61knt wind at flight level so its closer to 70mph at flight level.This is getting alittle more concerning not that a cat 1 is a bug bad storm but could certainly change how much weather(wind) i get here.

[UpTheCreek]

Latest loop shows a Nward movement once again.

I see NNE here, no change in direction that I can see?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... raprod=n0z

[UpTheCreek]

31/1145 UTC 30.3N 79.8W T3.5/3.5 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean


For those who dont know what winds 3.5 are,here is the chart of the distint numbers of sat estimates.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Thanks cycloneye, that was really helpful to me!

[rnbaida]

We will have winds of 60mph at 11

[Thunder44]

820
WHXX01 KWBC 311225
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060831 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060831 1200 060901 0000 060901 1200 060902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 79.9W 33.4N 79.4W 36.3N 79.0W 39.1N 79.1W
BAMM 30.6N 79.9W 33.2N 79.0W 35.6N 78.8W 37.9N 79.0W
A98E 30.6N 79.9W 33.0N 78.9W 35.8N 77.4W 38.1N 76.3W
LBAR 30.6N 79.9W 33.0N 78.8W 35.3N 77.9W 37.0N 76.6W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 70KTS 76KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 42KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060902 1200 060903 1200 060904 1200 060905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 41.7N 79.4W 46.7N 79.2W 50.0N 74.2W 51.4N 58.2W
BAMM 40.0N 79.5W 44.3N 78.9W 47.8N 74.2W 49.1N 63.6W
A98E 40.2N 74.6W 44.3N 70.6W 45.9N 60.7W 40.9N 45.2W
LBAR 38.0N 75.4W 38.2N 72.0W 39.1N 68.6W 41.4N 65.1W
SHIP 76KTS 72KTS 65KTS 51KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.6N LONCUR = 79.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 28.1N LONM12 = 80.7W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
12z models initialized 50kts, pressure 995mb.

[carve]

Not an expert.......but man it looks like it could form an eye...really looks to be strengthing rapidly....and my daughter is at camp lejeune nc

[seahawkjd]

Wouldn't 3.5 translate to 65 mph?