Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#401 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:48 am

JIMO
I really don't think so much now as it was. Looking at the wv loop you can see it is not going any where fast right now. This gives time for Flo to get on out of the way. I just see the 11AM update and said it was going 7 mph but on sat it don't look like it has move very much this morning. If it stays slow and flo moves on out it will have lost it mom. LOL But really if this stays slow it is on it's own and not in Flo wake. I think we will see a change in the models once Florence is farther north. To where it is going I don't know yet. But right now I would say out to sea if it can. There is to many things that could happen in a few days. Does the ridge close off ? Or does there stay a weakness in the ridge. Maybe one of the promet can answer this. For I am not A pro. Just a old lady that has seen alot of storms.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

#402 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:54 am

Sometimes a storm looks very good but its looks doesn't correlate to its intensity. Could we see a TS already here when the system isn't looking at its best? RECON will find out soon!!!

otowntiger · #403 Postby **otowntiger** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:24 am

wxman57 wrote:Thought y'all might find this shot interesting. I zoomed in a bit into the center and saw something strange, so I zoomed in again. I believe I can see 3 and perhaps 4 vortices rotating around the center of TD 7:

McIDAS shot with vortices identified:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon7.gif

That is awesome! Have you ever seen that before?

#404 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:30 am

Latest vis loop sure looks good for the llc with a visable eye. Lots of ifs but obviously doesn't have any cdo. Some of the ifs are that if this can survive a little longer and get out of Flo's wake maybe. And it could also wind up going west because of the building high as well as that td7 really doesn't have any deep convection for the trough to grab on to. Probably will be Gordon the fisherman though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Derek Ortt · #405 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:35 am

in this case, a deeper stronger system will head more west, while a weak shallow system should move north in about 24 hours.

Weak and shallow does not always mean west. It only means that the system moves with the low-level flow. According to the shallow BAM, that means up and out east of 60W

#406 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:35 am

The system is exposed but its eastern semicircle looks nice.

#407 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:54 am

Josephine96 wrote:Gordon likes the state of Florida.. 2000, 1994, and I think 1988 as well..

There was no Gordon in 1988 (it was Gilbert). IMO, this should be named something else as 1994's Gordon should have been retired...

Josephine96 · #408 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:36 am

Thank you for the correction.. My apologies.. :wink:

Sanibel · #409 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:04 pm

It has tightened, but the future synoptic appears to be limited as far as strength.

Patrick99 · #410 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:15 pm

Josephine96 wrote::lol: My sports metaphors are alive and well.. lets go Marlins.. win the NL Wild Card..

anyway.. If the ridge builds in.. and that "gap" fills up.. It could get interesting by late week or the weekend..

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if that little notch tightens/fills in. The Florence gap with the ridges on both sides shows up quite clearly on the WV.

#411 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:17 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
Josephine96 wrote::lol: My sports metaphors are alive and well.. lets go Marlins.. win the NL Wild Card..

anyway.. If the ridge builds in.. and that "gap" fills up.. It could get interesting by late week or the weekend..

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if that little notch tightens/fills in. The Florence gap with the ridges on both sides shows up quite clearly on the WV.

Yes, it is filling in pretty quickly - check out that ridge to the west extending east of Florida. Look how quickly it wants to fill in behind Florence.

El Nino · #412 Postby **El Nino** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:30 pm

1006 mb and 47 kts at flight level, according to RECON.

They should officialize Gordon this afternoon ?

Thunder44 · #413 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:34 pm

El Nino wrote:1006 mb and 47 kts at flight level, according to RECON.

They should officialize Gordon this afternoon ?

Next advisory is not until 5pm. They will probably wait until then, unless it intensifies more.

Damar91 · #414 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
Josephine96 wrote::lol: My sports metaphors are alive and well.. lets go Marlins.. win the NL Wild Card..

anyway.. If the ridge builds in.. and that "gap" fills up.. It could get interesting by late week or the weekend..

Yeah, it will be interesting to see if that little notch tightens/fills in. The Florence gap with the ridges on both sides shows up quite clearly on the WV.

Yes, it is filling in pretty quickly - check out that ridge to the west extending east of Florida. Look how quickly it wants to fill in behind Florence.

Yeah, starting to look like a squeeze play. :lol:

#415 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:02 pm

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

GORDON!!

#416 Postby **Buck** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:05 pm

Hurrah!

El Nino · #417 Postby **El Nino** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:11 pm

Have an idea of average wind speeds ? 35 or 40 kts ?

#418 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:11 pm

By the way, I calculated a 6 hour movement toward 303 degrees at 9.2 kts - that's almost to NW (304 deg). So much for the west movement.

#419 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:By the way, I calculated a 6 hour movement toward 303 degrees at 9.2 kts - that's almost to NW (304 deg). So much for the west movement.

Yes, but it can't move much farther NW or N as the subtropical ridge is very established just N and E of Gordon.

It should resume a more WNW track later today I would think.

BensonTCwatcher · #420 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:14 pm

If it gains height it might be held west by the ridge, but a sheared system will follow the lower level winds North.

Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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