INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[canegrl04]

I really hope this system spreads the rain around Florida.You guys desperately need it.Meanwhile,we are SICK of the rain in Texas ,although its done wonders for the drought we suffered over the past two years.

[cpdaman]

will that shear if it is maintained later this evening result in higher threat for rotating possibly tornadic storms?

i think DEREK or WXMAN alluded to this possibility yesterday

[wjs3]

will that shear if it is maintained later this evening result in higher threat for rotating possibly tornadic storms?

Yes, I think so. The lower level shear.

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

I really hope this system spreads the rain around Florida.You guys desperately need it.Meanwhile,we are SICK of the rain in Texas ,although its done wonders for the drought we suffered over the past two years.

the rain is coming !!!

[Frank2]

Yes, yesterday the NWS did mention the possibility of severe weather due to winds turning with height...

[cpdaman]

also wsj3 do you think that (severe potential) will be focused on the SW florida coast (closer to the low) or out a few hundred miles to the east

because IMO this low seems poised to move just NW or over tampa bay

[Aric Dunn]

this is a image from the Key west radar

[Aric Dunn]

recon should be taking off any minute

[JonathanBelles]

:drools: that picture looks great.

[CL1]

Rain just not getting to the ground here in western Broward County...Looking like its about ready though..

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY...

.UPDATE...A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWING ADVANCING EWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GOMEX IS PUMPING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD OVER
OUR ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE JAX CWA TODAY. A SFC
LOW IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA THIS MORNING...AND
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NNE TODAY AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
EDGE NWD THIS AFTN FROM S FL...AND THE PHASING OF THESE INGREDIENTS
AS WELL AS A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED UPPER JET WITH RRQ ELONGATED OVER
OUR CWA STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN
MODEL THIS MORNING WHICH FAVORS THE SFC LOW TRACKING NWD AND
CROSSING CENTRAL OR N FL LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT.

This is great news. Heavy rainmakers are what we need.

[cpdaman]

latest visible shows improved rotation (1515 utc) around the low pressure area

as well as more of a cloud build up just north of low pressure (could be good news for N. FLORIDA and fires)

[Aric Dunn]

That is a center that is becoming more well defined.. i think the NHC is going make it at least a Sub tropical depression or depression or storm when recon gets out there....... as long as it meets the requirements ... of a warm core system ..... meaning( in general) the closer to the center you go the warmer and the higher the dew point

[Noles2006]

I am in agreement, Aric.

Still moving North, with the bulk of the rain to the east.

The perfect scenario would be for it to continue drifting N to NNE and make landfall near the big bend as a weak STS or TS, while drenching the peninsula on the way up, and hopefully throwing a little rain my way on the west side.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

looks like convection is increasing near center as well per infared could get some wind out of this t-bay but rain is a lock

[Stormavoider]

latest visible shows improved rotation (1515 utc) around the low pressure area

as well as more of a cloud build up just north of low pressure (could be good news for N. FLORIDA and fires)

Looks real good on this NASA/MSFC loop.

[Aric Dunn]

it still has little way to go..... over all circulation .. is still broad... not too much banding yet in the SW side.. but now is the only time it has left..

[wxman57]

That is a center that is becoming more well defined.. i think the NHC is going make it at least a Sub tropical depression or depression or storm when recon gets out there....... as long as it meets the requirements ... of a warm core system ..... meaning( in general) the closer to the center you go the warmer and the higher the dew point

http://img471.imageshack.us/img471/3567/rgbhv7.jpg

Same area I was looking at. 23.5N/85.6W. Winds 25-30 kts to the northeast, 5-10 kts south of the low. Maybe NHC will name this one BEFORE it causes any problems. Guess I'm working all weekend....

Enjoy the rain in Florida. Too bad it probably won't get far enough north to put out the big fires in southern Georgia.

[Noles2006]

It might, wxman....

::fingers crossed::

[Aric Dunn]

That is a center that is becoming more well defined.. i think the NHC is going make it at least a Sub tropical depression or depression or storm when recon gets out there....... as long as it meets the requirements ... of a warm core system ..... meaning( in general) the closer to the center you go the warmer and the higher the dew point

http://img471.imageshack.us/img471/3567/rgbhv7.jpg

Same area I was looking at. 23.5N/85.6W. Winds 25-30 kts to the northeast, 5-10 kts south of the low. Maybe NHC will name this one BEFORE it causes any problems. Guess I'm working all weekend....

Enjoy the rain in Florida. Too bad it probably won't get far enough north to put out the big fires in southern Georgia.

yep its looking like .. they will here when recon gets out there