Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[miamicanes177]

The wind shear in the area is flat out shocking. Are we seriously in the first week of July? WOW. We need to be pray for dry air a lot because if the shear stays this way it will be one of the worst seasons imaginable. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

And the shear tendency map to show just how much it is dropping now: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Watch it ride below the SAL: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest QuikSCAT pass has arrived... this is an ascending pass...



Source

Note the uncontaminated 30KT wind barbs... this indicates a well-established center of circulation.

[CourierPR]

Is the NHC getting any ship reports?

[Aric Dunn]

The latest QuikSCAT pass has arrived...



Source

Note the uncontaminated 30KT wind barbs...

ok im not picking you or anyone in general .. but people can you read the previous posts..

those images from that site

"The images may contain data up to 22 hours previous from update time.
Details of orbit data files that go into the plots can be found here."

that image is from 16 hours ago .. use the NRL site for your quickscat need for this system... sorry again im not trying to be mean or anything its just a reminder!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Is the NHC getting any ship reports?

possibly .. but i have been looking everywhere.. the from the marine site to the NOAA Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) .. i cant find anything in the area.. out of like some 200 ships or something .. its weird..

[Windspeed]

Yes, the above image is an older pass. The rotation is centered around 36ºW on it where as at present the LLC has already crossed 40ºW on the most recent pass that was posted earlier.

[WindRunner]

Actually, Aric, that's true of all quickscat data . . . not just that one site. It's just that that site is the only one that actually tells you the possible age warning, because it's a global site. And you should also realize that most people don't read these entire threads, espcially when they go at a page every hour . . . hence no need to be sharp with anyone.

Miami, I made the same mistake when I posted that a couple hours ago. Look at the purple timestamps beneath each pass, those are the time of the data in that pass' swath. In this case, 08:26z is now 18 hours old and we should have a new pass in about four hours.

[Chacor]

311
ABNT20 KNHC 040217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN
EXTENT THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[skysummit]

Something's gonna give later. I agree with Aric....there's just something missing right now. Really, it doesn't have that much going against it, so I believe it'll hold its own for the next day or two, bubbling up and down with convection, then something will give.

I can see it already....convection will be dieing out in the next few hours, or by morning, and people will again be writing it off. Just remember these bursts of convection in and out are normal for developing systems.

[Aric Dunn]

there are those details again.. hmmm.. and i mentioned .. i was not trying to be anything of the sorts.. and i said it was just a reminder to read ... previous post..

and yes your right.. but that site has a tendency to be a little less on top of things.. !! thats all i meant by it..

[philnyc]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

agreed... its missing.. somthing..

Hi Aric. And yes, it is missing something.... deep convection. Moderate convective bursts over or very near the LLC will keep it alive as it tracks on westward, but deep or heavy convection bursting over the LLC will help pressures to fall and allow the thing to strengthen. Stable air getting pulled in at the mid-levels on the north side of the rotation will continue to hinder it. However, I don't know if the environment is stable enough to kill it. In fact, with such a good circulation and a fairly favorable upper and mid-level pattern between it and the Windwards, this should be able to hold together. Now the concern will be if it is able to strengthen and if the environment around the eastern Caribbean will continue to look supportive for a much more formidable system or do a 180º, quickly becoming hostile as so often the eastern and central Caribbean does this time of year. We shall see....

I think you're both right. And the reason it can't get deep convection going is because of all the dry air to the north. I don't think that it's an accident that most of the convection is in the southern semicircle. The thunderstorms that start to build on the northern semicircle are entraining too much dry air, and so peter out before they build higher. Without convection building higher on the northern side, and thus pulling more moisture into the lower levels, the stronger southern side tstorms are also facing a limit on how much moisture can be swept up into them from the surface: downdrafts of lower theta-e air on the northern side eventually spin counterclockwise into the southern side.

[Aric Dunn]

Something's gonna give later. I agree with Aric....there's just something missing right now. Really, it doesn't have that much going against it, so I believe it'll hold its own for the next day or two, bubbling up and down with convection, then something will give.

I can see it already....convection will be dieing out in the next few hours, or by morning, and people will again be writing it off. Just remember these bursts of convection in and out are normal for developing systems.

exactly.. they alway flare up and down,,,

[Aric Dunn]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

agreed... its missing.. somthing..

Hi Aric. And yes, it is missing something.... deep convection. Moderate convective bursts over or very near the LLC will keep it alive as it tracks on westward, but deep or heavy convection bursting over the LLC will help pressures to fall and allow the thing to strengthen. Stable air getting pulled in at the mid-levels on the north side of the rotation will continue to hinder it. However, I don't know if the environment is stable enough to kill it. In fact, with such a good circulation and a fairly favorable upper and mid-level pattern between it and the Windwards, this should be able to hold together. Now the concern will be if it is able to strengthen and if the environment around the eastern Caribbean will continue to look supportive for a much more formidable system or do a 180º, quickly becoming hostile as so often the eastern and central Caribbean does this time of year. We shall see....

I think you're both right. And the reason it can't get deep convection going is because of all the dry air to the north. I don't think that it's an accident that most of the convection is in the southern semicircle. The thunderstorms that start to build on the northern semicircle are entraining too much dry air, and so peter out before they build higher. Without convection building higher on the northern side, and thus pulling more moisture into the lower levels, the stronger southern side tstorms are also facing a limit on how much moisture can be swept up into them from the surface: downdrafts of lower theta-e air on the northern side eventually spin counterclockwise into the southern side.[/quote]

good analysis!!:)

[Coredesat]

However, the convection associated with this system has never been very deep or extensive to begin with.

[CrazyC83]

What do I think? I personally think this is a 25-30 knot TD right now, pretty much in steady state.

[boca]

This may sound silly but why is the quickscat so out of sync. The center is at 9.5N and 42W, but quickscat is at 36W?

[Aric Dunn]

scroll up

[Windspeed]

However, the convection associated with this system has never been very deep or extensive to begin with.

Which is why this has been and will likely continue to be a slow developing process. Chances are this system has enough going for it to hold together or develop slowly, which is why is must be closely watched if it moves into a more favorable environment. But I don't see this thing breaking any intensification records anytime soon. The idea here is that if we assume it can at least maintain itself as a closed low with moderate convection at times, then such will open the door for concern as it moves west of 55º; an area that may allow for a more favorable environment for intensification. As said before, it's not uncommon to get a system or depression form east of the Windwards, only to have it get shredded in the graveyard that is typical of the Caribbean this time of year. Talk of dry air is going to be a thing of redundancy ad nausea. Must look west young man, haven't you been told?...what's the environment going to be like in a day or so...

[Brent]

I agree, I think development will be very slow for the next few days(if at all). Everyone relax and enjoy the holiday.

[boca]

Thanks Aric I didn't bother reading above posts.