Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[bvigal]

NRL just put up 99L

[KWT]

Yep also on the floater now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[punkyg]

Who is gonna make the thread?

[senorpepr]

Who is gonna make the thread?

No need... press forward--AND NO MENTIONING OF TESTS!

[Aquawind]

Sometimes those GFS hints become reality..It's been serious hinting for a week now and yes it took the system into the Caribbean..time has come. That's impressive convection in such a dry and dusty enviroment..

[senorpepr]

Sometimes those GFS hints become reality..It's been serious hinting for a week now and yes it took the system into the Caribbean..time has come. That's impressive convection in such a dry and dusty enviroment..

I was just getting ready to say, if I had to hang my hat on something (which I really shouldn't considering the lack of time I've spent monitoring the tropics this year), it would be this invest. I'm not saying it will develop, but as you mentioned, GFS has been talking the talk about this thing for a while. Maybe it's time for 99L to walk the walk.

[boca]

Dang I knew this would come to something.On the other thread something's about to pop I made the wave between 45 and 50w looked real good. Lets see if we can get a TD out of it.

[wxman57]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

Stop the presses...57 has made a Bullish comment..Here we go..

[skysummit]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

Stop the presses...57 has made a Bullish comment..Here we go..

LOL... I was just thinking the same thing. I haven't had a chance to look at model runs this morning, or steering flows. Where does this look to go? Will it stay south into South America, or Mexico, or eventually curve up into the Caribbean and/or Gulf.

Well....if wxman57 says SE U.S., he's answered my question.

[drezee]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

Stop the presses...57 has made a Bullish comment..Here we go..

LOL... I was just thinking the same thing. I haven't had a chance to look at model runs this morning, or steering flows. Where does this look to go? Will it stay south into South America, or Mexico, or eventually curve up into the Caribbean and/or Gulf.

Well....if wxman57 says SE U.S., he's answered my question.

not often do you here 57 hyping a system with no T numbers at least. i am definitely watching this one, it looks like Dennis from 05 and near the same spot...

[boca]

The 06z GFS has 99L cutting thru the Florida Straits on August 7th.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[drezee]

292
WHXX01 KWBC 301254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070730 1200 070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 45.7W 10.5N 48.0W 11.3N 50.4W 11.9N 52.6W
BAMM 9.7N 45.7W 10.5N 48.1W 11.3N 50.7W 12.0N 52.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070801 1200 070802 1200 070803 1200 070804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 54.9W 12.7N 59.9W 13.1N 65.1W 14.8N 70.2W
BAMM 12.3N 55.4W 12.6N 60.7W 12.8N 66.5W 14.1N 72.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 45.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 43.7W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 40.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[dixiebreeze]

wxman57 speaks -- and I'm on alert. It does appear this one might erupt.

[chadtm80]

[canegrl04]

Holy smokes Looks like we have a player in the Atl. for real this time.Kudos to GFS

[Trader Ron]

Finally, something to hang our hat on...

[drezee]

It is heading into the wrong place for us!!!

[KatDaddy]

This one is for real. Chantal is on the way.

[Blown Away]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

But the BAMM's are showing a low rider through the Carribean? GFS showing the low going through the Fl Straits? Which one is it?