Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[chadtm80]

Hey Luie take a look at the run here.. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
Definatley looks to be TD 4

[HURAKAN]

The Cape Verde Season is now officially open for business!!!

Track well my friend, long days ahead!!!

[punkyg]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.But as NRL is out the text is not found.

Does this means there getting ready to upgrade 90L?

[canetracker]

This pic came off the navy back up site. The site is up but running slow.

[Derek Ortt]

looks less organized on that QUIKSCAT pass than last evening. Might be the reaosn for the slight increase in pressure this morning

[Chacor]

Does this means there getting ready to upgrade 90L?

Strictly speaking it just means a TC could form within 24 hours.

[canegrl04]

The NHC expects this to turn into TD 4 in the next day or two (8am discussion)

[littlevince]

12z





Source: https://www.nemoc.navy.mil/site/satellite/

[Chacor]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121130Z AUG 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 121200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 22.0W TO 11.6N 30.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11.8N
22.0W AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. LOW WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE DISTURBANCE INDICATES THAT IT IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN WEAKER WIND SHEAR
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILTY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131200Z AUG.//

[vaffie]

Looks beautiful on satellite. Quikscat indicating winds up to 40 and 45 knots on the west side of the storm.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the slight weakening this morning is due to the strong easterly shear over the East Atlantic.

NOGAPS may have had the best handle on this shear and it could be why it fails to develop the cyclone

Still give this about a 75% chance of developing though

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121130Z AUG 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 121200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 22.0W TO 11.6N 30.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11.8N
22.0W AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. LOW WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE DISTURBANCE INDICATES THAT IT IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN WEAKER WIND SHEAR
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILTY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131200Z AUG.//

Chacor,where did you got the text as NRL has been very lazy.

[Chacor]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121130Z AUG 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 121200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 22.0W TO 11.6N 30.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11.8N
22.0W AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. LOW WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE DISTURBANCE INDICATES THAT IT IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN WEAKER WIND SHEAR
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILTY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131200Z AUG.//

Chacor,where did you got the text as NRL has been very lazy.

Luis: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/viewt ... cal/wtnt01

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you.

[canetracker]

The NHC expects this to turn into TD 4 in the next day or two (8am discussion)

Due to present conditions mentioned inthe subj/tropical formation alert, slight pressure increase and QuikScat presentation, I think they are going to watch this for a while. We may see a TD by this evening but more likely it will be tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

This is the 12:15 UTC image of the Eastern Atlantic.This is a six hour interval image,But the good news is that later today we will start to see it in the Central Atlantic image which updates every half an hour.

[wzrgirl1]

I think the slight weakening this morning is due to the strong easterly shear over the East Atlantic.

NOGAPS may have had the best handle on this shear and it could be why it fails to develop the cyclone

Still give this about a 75% chance of developing though

Derek I know you don't like to make predictions this far out, just curious as to your gut feeling for south florida on this one. Again, this is just your gut feeling. I trust your instinct a lot.

[windycity]

I second that. Derek's gut instints have been correct for alot of storms.

[KatDaddy]

One thing that for sure should Invest 90 grow into a powerful tropical cyclcone as some models show I do not want any part of it. Its a very long way out and difficult to tell if this will become a GOM threat or EC threat.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121316
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1316 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200 070814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.3W 13.4N 27.5W 14.2N 31.3W 15.1N 35.7W
BAMD 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.4W 12.7N 32.4W 13.0N 36.4W
BAMM 12.3N 24.3W 12.9N 28.2W 13.4N 32.4W 13.9N 36.7W
LBAR 12.3N 24.3W 12.6N 28.1W 12.9N 32.4W 13.3N 36.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 1200 070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 40.6W 16.7N 50.4W 16.5N 59.9W 14.8N 67.7W
BAMD 13.4N 40.4W 13.9N 48.6W 14.3N 56.5W 13.9N 62.8W
BAMM 14.1N 41.2W 14.1N 50.2W 13.2N 58.2W 12.5N 63.3W
LBAR 13.6N 41.5W 13.4N 48.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 20.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 18.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


The 12:00 z Tropical Models.But this does not have the intensity numbers from ship.Maybe later they will add those.