Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 22:45 UTC

[BigA]

I'm not sure whether any potential system is more likely to get going at 78 west or 70 west. Any ideas?

[cycloneye]

I forgot to mention that what you see as observations in the image are from the new bouys that AJC3 posted earlier located NE of the Bahamas and Western Atlantic.

[vaffie]

I'm not sure whether any potential system is more likely to get going at 78 west or 70 west. Any ideas?

It's too early to say, but the 850 mb chart is informative about where the most low level turning of the clouds is occurring. A focus around 26N, 76 W appears to be developing. Shouldn't be too long before an invest is created, possibly by morning in my opinion.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

I wouldn't look for any rapid development. Might be another few days before there's any obvious low in the Gulf, and it'll probably be a weak subtropical low. 18Z GFS doesn't lose it, it moves it ashore into SW LA on Friday morning as just a very weak low. Unless the upper-level low vanishes, not much will come of this system.

One positive for development - I'm taking a vacation day Friday to travel up to Lufkin for the Pineywoods Purgatory bike ride on Saturday morning. TCs know when I schedule a day off, so I'm sure something will try to develop.

[ROCK]

I'm not sure whether any potential system is more likely to get going at 78 west or 70 west. Any ideas?

It's too early to say, but the 850 mb chart is informative about where the most low level turning of the clouds is occurring. A focus around 26N, 76 W appears to be developing. Shouldn't be too long before an invest is created, possibly by morning in my opinion.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

I agree. This was pointed out before but it is interesting. I have watched that tight low level eddy swirling to the SW of the NE convection mass. No doubt this was/ is responsible for the convection to the NE...fairly easy to see as the midlevel clouds streaming up out of the surface low........the convection closer to FL is due to the ULL which is digging WSW......

Point is, this area does have some surface reflection. Now we just watch to see which feature dominates....


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[ROCK]

I wouldn't look for any rapid development. Might be another few days before there's any obvious low in the Gulf, and it'll probably be a weak subtropical low. 18Z GFS doesn't lose it, it moves it ashore into SW LA on Friday morning as just a very weak low. Unless the upper-level low vanishes, not much will come of this system.

One positive for development - I'm taking a vacation day Friday to travel up to Lufkin for the Pineywoods Purgatory bike ride on Saturday morning. TCs know when I schedule a day off, so I'm sure something will try to develop.

we will hold the fort down for you....... Oh and be sure to have your crackberry with you in case the office calls.......

[drezee]

Marsh Habour, Bahamas down to 1007.7 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

[cycloneye]

18z UKMET



This animation goes only 48 hours,but you can see that it starts in the Florida Straits and grows as it moves into the GOM.

[Kennethb]

After looking at the WV loop it seems, at least for now, that the TUTT is moving a little faster than the previous one that associated with TD 10.

[ROCK]

Marsh Habour, Bahamas down to 1007.7 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

whoa! did think the area was that low....interesting....

[ROCK]

After looking at the WV loop it seems, at least for now, that the TUTT is moving a little faster than the previous one that associated with TD 10.

right you are Ken..... ......More wsw and faster.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE SW ATLC...THERE IS A MESSY SFC PATTERN. THE FOCUS IS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1010 MB BASED ON OBS IN THE BAHAMAS
...CENTERED NEAR 26N74W. A TROUGH HANGS SSW FROM THE LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. A STALLED SLOWLY WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST TO THE W OF THE LOW ALONG 32N65W
25N77W TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SE GULF AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 67W/68W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 67W-75W. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE W OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR 26N78W. DOPPLER RADAR FROM MIAMI SHOWS SWATHS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRESSING SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT ENERGY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...STRONG NELY WINDS ARE
PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SFC DATA AND QSCAT SUGGESTING
WINDS TO 30 KT. THESE LOCAL WINDS ALONG WITH A LARGE NELY FETCH
IS PRODUCING DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS IN THE 10-15
FT RANGE.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Ed Mahmoud]

Back 100% on topic, anywhere besides NOAA Nesdis site to find IR2 closeups of Bahamas vicinity?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The TWD says 30 knots already due to a pressure
gradient combination- IF and WHEN this is upgraded
it will probably go straight to a sub/tropical storm
and skip the depression stage because winds
will only increase by tomorrow night likely
gusting to the 40 knot range.

[CourierPR]

Folks, this is not the Talkin' Texas forum. Please take your off-topic chatter elsewhere.

[AJC3]

Marsh Habour, Bahamas down to 1007.7 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

whoa! did think the area was that low....interesting....

It isn't. The SLP on that station can't be right. Nassau to the south, and closer to the surface trough axis, has been running 1012-1013MB, while Freeport and Settlement Point, not too far to the west of Great Abaco, have been showing about 1015MB or a little higher.

[cycloneye]

Lets return to the theme of this thread and send PMS between those who want to talk about other themes.Is the second time today that I have to post this message.The staff without warning will deleite off topic posts.

[ROCK]

Marsh Habour, Bahamas down to 1007.7 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78065.html

whoa! did think the area was that low....interesting....

It isn't. The SLP on that station can't be right. Nassau to the south, and closer to the surface trough axis, has been running 1012-1013MB, while Freeport and Settlement Point, not too far to the west of Great Abaco, have been showing about 1015MB or a little higher.

Thanks for the clarification. The buoys out there didnt even show that low....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We'll have to see what happens...right now slow
development into a tropical system or subtropical
system is possible as it moves into the gulf.
Finally some forecasted rain for central Florida starting
Tuesday at 50%.

Quite disorganized right now:
That convection needs to wrap around the center better
in order to get something tropical.