AlphaToOmega wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1449470310932090882
Ok, now this is just weird. Perhaps the root reason why we are seeing with the dead Atlantic, whatever it is, is also causing the WPAC and EPAC to be relative weak and inactive? Something tells me that the MJO progression may not be to entirely blame given if that were the case then all of that rising motion in the WPAC should have been capable of allowing the basin to produce some decent storms and activity (but it did not).
More dry air & higher Wind Shear around the world than usual?
It is a combination of conflicting factors: -ENSO and -PDO, which would typically support the Atlantic, but +RMM2, which hinders development in the Atlantic. Once the RMM2 goes into the negatives, the Atlantic will likely see development, especially with -ENSO and -PDO.
I hesitate to blame the MJO for the lengthy quiet periods--usually something can still develop, but it seems right now the Atlantic is incapable of producing anything without a favorable MJO. But it's a mystery to me exactly what is going on in the background leading to this.