ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricane Jed]

Its probably best to take this one day at a time. Oooing and ahhing over every little thing is reading too much into it imo. We're going to know a lot more about this El Nino after its all said and done.

[cycloneye]

I think we will begin to see the SOI stop rising of the past couple of weeks.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 15 Apr 2014


Average for last 30 days
-1.4

Average for last 90 days
-1.1

Daily contribution to SOI calculation
-6.8

[Hurricane Jed]

In otherwords stabilize and possibly start going back down again?

[euro6208]

:uarrow: In otherwords stabilize and possibly start going back down again?

Yup, the convectively suppressive phase of the MJO (downward motion) is now reaching Darwin, Australia.
Start watching this fall very rapidly...

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: In otherwords stabilize and possibly start going back down again?

Yup, the convectively suppressive phase of the MJO (downward motion) is now reaching Darwin, Australia.
Start watching this fall very rapidly...

Did the MJO also caused the recent uptick in SOI?

[Hurricane Jed]

In relation to that can a tropical cyclone trap the MJO in a region and delay its progression? That's how I'm interpreting what Ita did. Correct me if I am wrong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess the equatorial Pacific is starting to warm up again. Some +2ºC anomalies are popping up over a wide area near Niño3.

[cycloneye]

No stalling or going down yet by SOI on tonights update but as I posted earlier,that will change in the next few days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

No stalling or going down yet by SOI on tonights update but as I posted earlier,that will change in the next few days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

The 30 SOI may actually rise for a few more days. Even though it has gone negative, we are losing -20s, so unless we gain an equal or more amount that we lose the moving data average will rise.

But aside, the eastern Pacific regions have resumed warming

[Ptarmigan]

low as in very negative or low as in near positive?

Low as in very negative.

[Ntxw]

Here's something to ponder. Since we were talking about model performance earlier, for the month of March the Eurosip (collection of many models including NCEP's CFS) ended up mostly too cool. Early April is already at the upper end of the lines above 0C.

[Ntxw]

In relation to that can a tropical cyclone trap the MJO in a region and delay its progression? That's how I'm interpreting what Ita did. Correct me if I am wrong.

This is a good question, perhaps a pro met can chime in. Most of us, myself included, ignored the fact that the MJO went through the Maritime continent stronger than thought (including Australia) that spawned ITA to get to the Pacific. While this did create westerlies, the Maritime continent phases is La Nina phases along with the IO which favors cooling over the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a more steady warming at Nino 3.4? Ninos 1+2 and 3 are also rising.

[stormkite]

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/201 ... ison.shtml

At this time the evidence suggests a significant ENSO event is possible.
But, there is not one shred of evidence to suggest abnormal warming of surface waters off Ecuador is occurring. That is the trademark of El Nino. It is the warming of surface waters on the equator between 120W and 170W (commonly referred to as Nino 3.4) +0.5 deg C above normal for 3 or more consecutive months (exact parameters vary) that delineate the start of El Nino. And it takes another 3 months after that warm surface water manifests to start transferring energy into the atmosphere, enough so that the jet stream starts to increase velocity and change configuration affecting the track and strength of gales and storms below it, primarily focused on the North Pacific. One would not expect to see evidence of that until no earlier than late July 2014. And until that occurs, that is, the atmosphere is positively affected, this remains a 'potential' event.

Information sourced from the above website.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a more steady warming at Nino 3.4? Ninos 1+2 and 3 are also rising.

Apart from Nino 3.4,the area close to SA has begun to warm.Let's see if is only a brief warming or is a more sustained one.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the sub-surface shows the warm pool intact and beginning to reach the surface.

[cycloneye]

So what's up with the SOI being almost at positive (-1.4) instead of mantaining below the -8 El Nino threshold? It was -13 a month ago.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

So what's up with the SOI being almost at positive (-1.4) instead of mantaining below the -8 El Nino threshold? It was -13 a month ago.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

It's because of the moving day average. We are losing the big -20s and -30s from mid March, even though we are gaining some negatives they are not more than what we chip away. It may actually go positive for a brief time until we start losing the weak positives and gain more negatives.

[Ntxw]

IRI mid April update is out. It's now near 80% and this is looking at a statistical standpoint which is always much more conservative, Paul Roundy called it. It's been a very long time we've seen such high values without one officially being in place and definitely not this early in year (post 2000 since pre was not tracked as they are now).

[cycloneye]

IRI mid April update is out. It's now near 80% and this is looking at a statistical standpoint which is always much more conservative, Paul Roundy called it. It's been a very long time we've seen such high values without one officially being in place and definitely not this early in year (post 2000 since pre was not tracked as they are now).

http://i62.tinypic.com/iynew2.gif

Here are the detailed % numbers. Click on image to see them.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/