ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Warming from the last few days continues, particularly 3 and 3.4

[Yellow Evan]

The MX coast near Jalicso and by the GOC looks quite warm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

hmm, according this, we're about to get El Nino SST's. A bit of warming occurred today.

[Kingarabian]

The MX coast near Jalicso and by the GOC looks quite warm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

hmm, according this, we're about to get El Nino SST's. A bit of warming occurred today.

Saw it earlier this morning and it +0.48 and now it's +0.53...

When the SOI rapidly changes, how long does it take for the SST's to change? Since it's closing in on becoming positive, does that mean we have to go through a cooling phase? Or was the cooling that we saw last week already it?

[Yellow Evan]

The MX coast near Jalicso and by the GOC looks quite warm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

hmm, according this, we're about to get El Nino SST's. A bit of warming occurred today.

Saw it earlier this morning and it +0.48 and now it's +0.53...

When the SOI rapidly changes, how long does it take for the SST's to change? Since it's closing in on becoming positive, does that mean we have to go through a cooling phase? Or was the cooling that we saw last week already it?

Daily SOI itself is tanking a bit now. It's the 30 day SOI that is going up.

[Ntxw]

A couple of things have become evident regarding the sub-surface. The majority of the warming is now mostly occurring in the eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the mass of warmth that is surfacing. The CPac area of warmth have weakened as most of the energy has made it's way east and up. As in a post about a month ago the anomalies should sustain El Nino at moderate levels at least thru mid summer.

There appears to be some down-welling in the western basin as 3C is slowing shifting back to the area that started it all. Could this be a new Oceanic Kelvin wave that will propel the ENSO event into stronger territory come fall?

TTAO/Triton Sub-Surface

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 is above +0.6C on April 19.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 is really taking off right now.

Who needs that WWB

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,SOI crossed to positive as you said so now let's see when it will reverse and go down again.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Day to day changes in both the ENSO values and the SOI index are going to occur by default. I don't see the point in posting about every up or down. What really matters is the weekly and monthly trends.

[stormkite]

SOI is about the same as 2012
Im still staggered why anyone would be comparing this El nino coming with 1997/98 Super nino.

They are nothing alike, we may get a brief moderate event or we could see the biggest flop in history. Ignore the cold PDO all you like, the strong ones just do not occur in this period no matter how much subsurface warming happens.

The trades are not going to switch, meaning the teleconnection between atmosphere and ocean looks weak at best.

I will wait another month and then I'm tipping the models will jump ship, there is no more heat in the pipeline

[Yellow Evan]

SOI is about the same as 2012
Im still staggered why anyone would be comparing this El nino coming with 1997/98 Super nino.

They are nothing alike, we may get a brief moderate event or we could see the biggest flop in history. Ignore the cold PDO all you like, the strong ones just do not occur in this period no matter how much subsurface warming happens.

The trades are not going to switch, meaning the teleconnection between atmosphere and ocean looks weak at best.

I will wait another month and then I'm tipping the models will jump ship, there is no more heat in the pipeline

Highly disagreed. We aren't in a cold PDO. The subsurface warmed up for a reason. We haven't had a Super El Nino in 17 years longer than any other period we've gone w/o a super El Nino.

[Ntxw]

SOI is about the same as 2012
Im still staggered why anyone would be comparing this El nino coming with 1997/98 Super nino.

They are nothing alike, we may get a brief moderate event or we could see the biggest flop in history. Ignore the cold PDO all you like, the strong ones just do not occur in this period no matter how much subsurface warming happens.

The trades are not going to switch, meaning the teleconnection between atmosphere and ocean looks weak at best.

I will wait another month and then I'm tipping the models will jump ship, there is no more heat in the pipeline

SOI is also similar to 2002. Lower than 2009 and 2006 neither fell until summer. Everyone is is entitled to their opinion. Why would you be staggered at the comparisons? This is what the professionals have put out not us. They compare it to 1997 because that is what the weather events did, bursts. Whether it is to continue is anyone's guess. And your statement of strong ones do not occur in cold PDO era (even with the recent spike warm) is not correct. See 1972.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,SOI crossed to positive as you said so now let's see when it will reverse and go down again.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

It will rise a little bit more then steady out as the big values to lose are no longer there. We then start chipping away at some positive (as long as we see negatives). The 90 day SOI continues to fall despite and probably will keep falling.

[Yellow Evan]

Ntxw,SOI crossed to positive as you said so now let's see when it will reverse and go down again.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

It will rise a little bit more then steady out as the big values to lose are no longer there. We then start chipping away at some positive (as long as we see negatives). The 90 day SOI continues to fall despite and probably will keep falling.

How negative is the daily SOI?

[Ntxw]

And to clarify a bit about the PDO. The PDO is a multi year phenomenon. We are currently in a -PDO era however the Pacific this year is not in the -PDO state. The +PDO readings back to back are there for a reason, not for show. It simply means the Pacific is taking a break from it's negative phase and not fighting whatever Nino is coming.

The PDO is the configuration of Sea surface temperatures/anomalies.

The negative PDO is this, horseshoe of cold from Alaska/Bering down the coast of NA into the eastern equatorial Pacific with a warm tongue from the WPAC which enhances La Nina.



The Positive PDO is the complete opposite with horshoe of warmth from Alaska/Bering down coast of NA to eastern Pacific and cold tongue from WPAC. This enhances El Nino.



The south Pacific is not included in the calculation of the PDO

And just so we can end this 2012 comparison with the PDO. That year clearly saw the -PDO fight the Nino that couldn't. Pretty evident.

[Yellow Evan]

And to clarify a bit about the PDO. The PDO is a multi year phenomenon. We are currently in a -PDO era however the Pacific this year is not in the -PDO state. The +PDO readings back to back are there for a reason, not for show. It simply means the Pacific is taking a break from it's negative phase and not fighting whatever Nino is coming.

The PDO is the configuration of Sea surface temperatures/anomalies.

The negative PDO is this, horseshoe of cold from Alaska/Bering down the coast of NA into the eastern equatorial Pacific with a warm tongue from the WPAC which enhances La Nina.

http://i58.tinypic.com/29c8niq.gif

The Positive PDO is the complete opposite with horshoe of warmth from Alaska/Bering down coast of NA to eastern Pacific and cold tongue from WPAC. This enhances El Nino.

http://i58.tinypic.com/2qupvnm.gif

The south Pacific is not included in the calculation of the PDO

And just so we can end this 2012 comparison with the PDO. That year clearly saw the -PDO fight the Nino that couldn't. Pretty evident.

http://i58.tinypic.com/zx6zaw.gif

Is it possible to think the -PDO era could be over? Or is this what I think this is and just a several month episode of +PDO?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

And to clarify a bit about the PDO. The PDO is a multi year phenomenon. We are currently in a -PDO era however the Pacific this year is not in the -PDO state. The +PDO readings back to back are there for a reason, not for show. It simply means the Pacific is taking a break from it's negative phase and not fighting whatever Nino is coming.

The PDO is the configuration of Sea surface temperatures/anomalies.

The negative PDO is this, horseshoe of cold from Alaska/Bering down the coast of NA into the eastern equatorial Pacific with a warm tongue from the WPAC which enhances La Nina.

http://i58.tinypic.com/29c8niq.gif

The Positive PDO is the complete opposite with horshoe of warmth from Alaska/Bering down coast of NA to eastern Pacific and cold tongue from WPAC. This enhances El Nino.

http://i58.tinypic.com/2qupvnm.gif

The south Pacific is not included in the calculation of the PDO

And just so we can end this 2012 comparison with the PDO. That year clearly saw the -PDO fight the Nino that couldn't. Pretty evident.

http://i58.tinypic.com/zx6zaw.gif

Is it possible to think the -PDO era could be over? Or is this what I think this is and just a several month episode of +PDO?

IMO, It's highly unlikely that the -PDO era is over; it just began in ~2007. The last cold phase began in the early 1940s and didn't end until the late 1970s.

[Ntxw]

Is it possible to think the -PDO era could be over? Or is this what I think this is and just a several month episode of +PDO?

I can't say for sure, I have no idea. The PDO blips is not something we can predict it's something we verify after the fact. 1972 saw the PDO go positive like now for a few months for the Nino.

What a lot of people don't remember is that even though 1997 was in the +PDO era, it was sandwiched in between some big La Nina's 1995-1996 and right after with big Nina's 1998, 1999, and 2000. Some argue this was the start of the current -PDO after 1997 and that 2002-2006 was a "blip" before the big Nina's dominated again. But 1997 was sandwiched between -PDO readings that I can say for sure.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it possible to think the -PDO era could be over? Or is this what I think this is and just a several month episode of +PDO?

I can't say for sure, I have no idea. The PDO blips is not something we can predict it's something we verify after the fact. 1972 saw the PDO go positive like now for a few months for the Nino.

What a lot of people don't remember is that even though 1997 was in the +PDO era, it was sandwiched in between some big La Nina's 1995-1996 and right after with big Nina's 1998, 1999, and 2000. Some argue this was the start of the current -PDO after 1997 and that 2002-2006 was a "blip" before the big Nina's dominated again. But 1997 was sandwiched between -PDO readings that I can say for sure.

I've seen it been listed as +PDO starting in 1995, 1998, and 2007 across various journal articles.

If it just began in 2007 as TA mentioned, why did the inactive cycle of the EPAC begin in 2007

[stormkite]

SOI is about the same as 2012
Im still staggered why anyone would be comparing this El nino coming with 1997/98 Super nino.

They are nothing alike, we may get a brief moderate event or we could see the biggest flop in history. Ignore the cold PDO all you like, the strong ones just do not occur in this period no matter how much subsurface warming happens.

The trades are not going to switch, meaning the teleconnection between atmosphere and ocean looks weak at best.

I will wait another month and then I'm tipping the models will jump ship, there is no more heat in the pipeline

SOI is also similar to 2002. Lower than 2009 and 2006 neither fell until summer. Everyone is is entitled to their opinion. Why would you be staggered at the comparisons? This is what the professionals have put out not us. They compare it to 1997 because that is what the weather events did, bursts. Whether it is to continue is anyone's guess. And your statement of strong ones do not occur in cold PDO era (even with the recent spike warm) is not correct. See 1972.

I meant we are in a 25 year cold phase. Yes we are positive atm.

Every cold PDO has positive phases, but overall the behaviour is cold PDO which is why El ninos average 9 months in a cold PDO and La Ninas 21 months.

There is nothing in the analogs that suggests a strong Nino bar 1972/73, even though that one was also brief and about 9 months. So the odds are stacked against it.