ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

I will let Dr Eric Blake describe this:


@EricBlake12 1h
Latest WWB is the strongest of the year- should squash any sig upwelling KW and favors a strong Nino later this yr

[asd123]

What happened to the CDAS SFLUX SST anomaly map? It hasn't updated since 18z Saturday. The map is usually updated 3 or 4 hours after the time z. (ie 3 or 4 hours after 18z)

Those CDAS graphs that show the Nino indices viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 (scroll down the page to find the graphs, not a saved image btw) will not update until that CDAS SFLUX SST anomaly map updates. That map hasn't updated since 18z, Saturday, so we don't know the Nino regions indices until the map updates.

[Yellow Evan]

What happened to the CDAS SFLUX SST anomaly map? It hasn't updated since 18z Saturday. The map is usually updated 3 or 4 hours after the time z. (ie 3 or 4 hours after 18z)

Those CDAS graphs that show the Nino indices viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 (scroll down the page to find the graphs, not a saved image btw) will not update until that CDAS SFLUX SST anomaly map updates. That map hasn't updated since 18z, Saturday, so we don't know the Nino regions indices until the map updates.

Check LEvi's site (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png). It's morning there, but it has gone to .499, so by a .001 of a degree, we are no longer +0.5C. But hourly fluctuation happen, so I would not take much stock into this.

[dexterlabio]

I wanted to ask this weeks ago...do we always have to compare daily indices of this year with that of 1997 to say that we're going towards strong EN? I'd rather see the monthly trend over weekly or daily values. It's impossible IMO to see 2014 copying everything from 1997. It will be unique in its own way.

I think the notable difference so far is that 2014 doesn't resemble an east-based warming but more central-based, due to Nino 1+2 still being negative.. A new WWB could change this, or maybe when NHem spring is over...

[NDG]

I don't think so. We've been tracking how warm the subsurface is for months. If anything, we slightly overestimated.

I am not buying the forecast for a moderate to strong typical eastern based El Nino until I start seeing waters along Nino 1+2 & coastal S.A. America really start warming up, they have been persistently cool, and all that cool water south of the Equator (indicative of strong easterly winds still present) is probably cooling a lot of that warm subsurface waters as it surfaces. A lot of you are comparing this event to 97 but if it wants now catch up to that year we better start seeing some warm waters surfacing this week coming up.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2014.gif

Nino 1+2 has warmed a past week. N above average anomalies are located N of the equator.

Niño region 1+2 does not go north of the equator.

[Ntxw]

I wanted to ask this weeks ago...do we always have to compare daily indices of this year with that of 1997 to say that we're going towards strong EN? I'd rather see the monthly trend over weekly or daily values. It's impossible IMO to see 2014 copying everything from 1997. It will be unique in its own way.

I think the notable difference so far is that 2014 doesn't resemble an east-based warming but more central-based, due to Nino 1+2 still being negative.. A new WWB could change this, or maybe when NHem spring is over...

Unfortunately data tracking is so limited before 2000. We didnt have proper instruments in place before the 1982 Nino and weather data is sparse evenn when looking at 1997. There isnt many strong Nino's or bursts that have occured to compare to other than 97. So its not that there isnt others just we dont have the data to look.

[Yellow Evan]

I am not buying the forecast for a moderate to strong typical eastern based El Nino until I start seeing waters along Nino 1+2 & coastal S.A. America really start warming up, they have been persistently cool, and all that cool water south of the Equator (indicative of strong easterly winds still present) is probably cooling a lot of that warm subsurface waters as it surfaces. A lot of you are comparing this event to 97 but if it wants now catch up to that year we better start seeing some warm waters surfacing this week coming up.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2014.gif

Nino 1+2 has warmed a past week. N above average anomalies are located N of the equator.

Niño region 1+2 does not go north of the equator.

Didn't know that. Thanks for letting me know. It still had warmed in the past week though per http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[CaliforniaResident]

I know that 30 day SOI is positive but what's the latest trend on the day to day fluctuation? Is it still rising or falling? Is there still the possibility of us hitting El Nino early this summer?

[Yellow Evan]

I know that 30 day SOI is positive but what's the latest trend on the day to day fluctuation? Is it still rising or falling? Is there still the possibility of us hitting El Nino early this summer?

Day to day SOI is failing AFAIK. It'll probably take a little while for it to be declared, but if you mean El Nino by weekly +0.5 readings, we could get our first tomorrow. I think an El Nino is unavoidable.

[SouthFloridian92]

What is the SOI and how does it affect the El nino/ La Nina cycles?

[Spin]

What is the SOI and how does it affect the El nino/ La Nina cycles?

As far as I know, SOI is an air pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti. Lower pressures in Tahiti than in Darwin indicate a negative SOI and usually correlate with El Niño, while higher pressures in Tahiti indicate a positive SOI and similarly correlate with La Niña.

[Ntxw]

Didn't know that. Thanks for letting me know. It still had warmed in the past week though per http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

And this is also why there is high volatility in ENSO regions 1+2. Aside from the shallow depths it is the small area. Early January it was +0.6C dropped to lower than -1.0C, rose to near 0C, dropped to -1.1C, and is now hovering at -0.3C. That's not exactly the staple child for stability. This region seemingly can change very quickly with winds unlike the others which takes more time.

[OURAGAN]

Big Warming at nino 1+2

[OURAGAN]

[NDG]

Looks like Nino 3.4 stays the same on this week's update.
Officially Nino 1+2 only warms up a little bit.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some warming now starting to occur over the coast of Peru (Niño 1+2) as the warm subsurface equatorial anomalies are going nearer towards the surface. The problem now is that the westerlies are too weak and dominated by the easterlies, which does not cooperate in the development of an El Niño.

[cycloneye]

Some warming now starting to occur over the coast of Peru (Niño 1+2) as the warm subsurface equatorial anomalies are going nearer towards the surface. The problem now is that the westerlies are too weak and dominated by the easterlies, which does not cooperate in the development of an El Niño.

There have not been strong tropical systems in WPAC in the past few weeks to kick more the WWB's.

[Ntxw]

Officially as of the update (as NDG posted) remains +0.2C.

This coming week is the week it needs to warm over 0.5C if we are to keep pace with 1997.

Caution on using the CDAS sst maps, the CPC uses buoys and not so much satellites to do readings if I'm not mistaken. We've seen the two not agree often so for predictions on updates I would recommend eyeballing using tao/triton

[cycloneye]

Officially as of the update (as NDG posted) remains +0.2C.

This coming week is the week it needs to warm over 0.5C if we are to keep pace with 1997.

Caution on using the CDAS sst maps, the CPC uses buoys and not so much satellites to do readings if I'm not mistaken. We've seen the two not agree often so for predictions on updates I would recommend eyeballing using tao/triton

There are interesting things that the update mentions in a mixed way about how ENSO is at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[tolakram]

Do we know for a fact the winds control the water temperatures rather than the other way around? Best I can tell there is still a lot of information about el nino formation that is not known.