Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[chzzdekr81]

I think its a good call its gone upto 20%, whilst there is obvious shear you can't just totally ignore the convective developments occuring.

Only a matter of time till they pull the trigger...surely!

It's still at 10%...

[cycloneye]

I think is a good call because of pressures relativly high.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[floridasun78]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

I think its a good call its gone upto 20%, whilst there is obvious shear you can't just totally ignore the convective developments occuring.

Only a matter of time till they pull the trigger...surely!

Still 10 percent... Surface pressures remain high.

So we have one source saying 10% and another stating 20%...obviously the 10% is the offical one, fair enough then!

I think the last line is the one that will be the one to note, plenty of heavy rain coming for the E.Caribbean from this system over the next few days...since its held at 10% may take a little longer to get declared as 97L...

Seems to me like the NHC are not being quite so quick to put out invests now, esp after a few totally pointless invests (what was that one that was from Agatha, that one was pointless)

[Nimbus]

There is still some upper level turning from that ULL/TUTT north of Puerto Rico that is creating shear.
If the surface pressures are weak its going to take some time to overcome that. The possible threat to the US east coast and gulf states down the line may motivate them to declare an invest early though.

The Caribbean near Jamaica is under an anticyclone so anything would really explode there. I see some weak wave on the model runs but it would take some persistent convection to get something going there.

[SFLcane]

I think its a good call its gone upto 20%, whilst there is obvious shear you can't just totally ignore the convective developments occuring.

Only a matter of time till they pull the trigger...surely!

Still 10 percent... Surface pressures remain high.

So we have one source saying 10% and another stating 20%...obviously the 10% is the offical one, fair enough then!

I think the last line is the one that will be the one to note, plenty of heavy rain coming for the E.Caribbean from this system over the next few days...since its held at 10% may take a little longer to get declared as 97L...

Seems to me like the NHC are not being quite so quick to put out invests now, esp after a few totally pointless invests (what was that one that was from Agatha, that one was pointless)

AGXX40 KNHC 181745 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

CORRECTED CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/MIMATS/MIMATS.201007181745.txt

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W S OF
19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 56W-64W ALREADY
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY
BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
$$

WALTON

[SFLcane]

Though vorticity has increased somewhat today conditions aloft aren't to favorable. Surface pressures as mentioned by tpc are not falling. I suspect landfall interaction may also prohibit any significant development before reaching the gulf of mexico. Overall just something to to keep an eye on but nothing to get overly excited about.

[KWT]

There is still some upper level turning from that ULL/TUTT north of Puerto Rico that is creating shear.
If the surface pressures are weak its going to take some time to overcome that. The possible threat to the US east coast and gulf states down the line may motivate them to declare an invest early though..

Yeah its not going to be a quick fix system, this one will probably take a good 3-4 days to get itself sorted out, but if the shear does lift out enough I do think there will be somewhat favourable conditions aloft for development near the Bahamas. The models don't seem too keen on this system in the Gulf though at the moment probably suggesting shear picks up again in the Gulf. Still thats a good 6-7 days away yet...

[ConvergenceZone]

There is still some upper level turning from that ULL/TUTT north of Puerto Rico that is creating shear.
If the surface pressures are weak its going to take some time to overcome that. The possible threat to the US east coast and gulf states down the line may motivate them to declare an invest early though..

Yeah its not going to be a quick fix system, this one will probably take a good 3-4 days to get itself sorted out, but if the shear does lift out enough I do think there will be somewhat favourable conditions aloft for development near the Bahamas. The models don't seem too keen on this system in the Gulf though at the moment probably suggesting shear picks up again in the Gulf. Still thats a good 6-7 days away yet...

Well, it would be good news if it waited that long to develop, because then we might be just looking at a depression or tropical storm at landfall.

[lebron23]

I think it will be invest 97 in the next 12-24 hours.

[Blown Away]

TAFB basically takes this wave through PR, then skims north side of DR, and then into SE Bahamas in 72 hours. Bahamas/SFL should be paying attention. This system reminds me of 1995 Erin with regards to track and time of year only.

TAFB 24 Hour:

TAFB 48 Hour:

TAFB 72 Hour:

[KWT]

If it gets into that region BA then development IMO is quite possible in 3-4 days time...alas we shall see...waiting for the ECM right now.

[cycloneye]

The first squall line is comming fast towards where I am in San Juan. I will post any important observations as it moves thru here and on the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.

[wxman57]

Remember, the NHC percentage represents the development chances only through the next 48 hrs. And calculating development potential is really just an educated guess. My educated guess is up to 50% over the next 5 days.

[KWT]

Very wet day from the looks of things cycloneye with quite alot of cells heading towards E.PR at a decent clip.

[lonelymike]

12z Euro does nothing with this system. If anything pumps up the high over the SE

[artist]

Remember, the NHC percentage represents the development chances only through the next 48 hrs. And calculating development potential is really just an educated guess. My educated guess is up to 50% over the next 5 days.

wxman - do you think this would be headed for south Florida? Have nieces coming in tomorrow and wonder how the weekend coming up will be here.