Kind of insane. I had no idea that the GFDL people were going for a seasonal run model. I've seen seasonal output modeling from other sources, but nothing quite like this. Who knows if it ends up being worth anything, but damn.
http://videos.nola.com/times-picayune/2 ... cart_river
FWIW, I only watched until October 27, and it mostly forms storms in the MDR/Central Atlantic, so I'm not buying that. But the progressive pattern across the US looks mostly legit for an El Nino year, although you know the pattern will block at some point.
2015 Global model runs discussion
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion
Steve wrote:Kind of insane. I had no idea that the GFDL people were going for a seasonal run model. I've seen seasonal output modeling from other sources, but nothing quite like this. Who knows if it ends up being worth anything, but damn.
http://videos.nola.com/times-picayune/2 ... cart_river
FWIW, I only watched until October 27, and it mostly forms storms in the MDR/Central Atlantic, so I'm not buying that. But the progressive pattern across the US looks mostly legit for an El Nino year, although you know the pattern will block at some point.
15 storms total (including three already had) so I'm not buying it either, but it still shows how far we've come that they can even have models create conditions that far out to start with, and will be interesting to see if (like the CFS last year) we might get a few vaguely similar tracks in the general time frame of some of these.
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Right on. Some people bag on seasonal forecasts, but to get better in science you have to start from somewhere. Verifications of both short term (3 and 5 day cones) and long term (seasonal) numbers and tracks is always improving and as you said, has really come a long way. Who knows how far we'll get in 20-30 years?
GFDL giving me a Welcome to technology in 2015 I guess.
GFDL giving me a Welcome to technology in 2015 I guess.
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Oh Hammy,
Just to finish up a point on the discussion about the new graphical GFDL seasonal model, the link below shows the enhancements the NHC has made since fateful 2005:
1) Average 24 hour forecast error has gone down to 44 miles on either side vs. 55 miles that was the standard in 2005 which is a drastic improvement in 10 years IMHO.
2) New satellites either already positioned high above the Earth or planned for launch in 2016 and 2017 that are and will provide a greater quantity of the data that is fed into computer models to better predict how a hurricane is moving and even the potential for tornadoes forming in their northeastern quadrants at landfall.
3) A new emphasis in issuing public forecasts on the effects of hurricanes that led limiting the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale to wind conditions and the unveiling this year of test storm surge watch and warning messages, backed up by brightly-colored maps that show the potential for surge waters to be 3, 6, 9 and 12 feet above ground level.
This is the full article, and if you click the link, check out the new 3-D visualization technique showing Katrina in 3-D including inland.
The full story:
The 2005 hurricane season, featuring Hurricanes Katrina and Rita among a record 28 total storms that killed more than 4,000 and caused a record $160 billion or more in damage also sparked a dramatic improvement in hurricane forecasting techniques, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrator Kathryn Sullivan said Tuesday.
Speaking during a Washington, D.C., news conference, Sullivan and other NOAA officials said the improvements include:
•Dramatic improvements in forecasting the tracks of hurricanes, with the average error 24 hours from landfall improved to 44 miles on either side, compared to 55 miles in 2005.
•New satellites either already positioned high above the Earth or planned for launch in 2016 and 2017 that are and will provide a greater quantity of the data that is fed into computer models to better predict how a hurricane is moving and even the potential for tornadoes forming in their northeastern quadrants at landfall.
•A new emphasis in issuing public forecasts on the effects of hurricanes that led limiting the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale to wind conditions and the unveiling this year of test storm surge watch and warning messages, backed up by brightly-colored maps that show the potential for surge waters to be 3, 6, 9 and 12 feet above ground level.
The changes in strategy by NOAA's National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center have been matched by changes in attitude by forecasters, said NWS Director Louis Uccellini.
"Until the latter part of the 20th Century, many forecasters believed their jobs ended with the forecast," he said. "If you made a great forecast, you'd done your job."
Those days are over, he said. Today, forecasters are equally concerned that their forecasts are heeded by the public, he said, pointing to the graphic warnings issued by the Slidell office of the weather service in advance of Katrina as a prime example.
At 10:11 a.m. on Sunday, Aug. 28, meteorologist Robert Ricks, lead forecaster in the we put out a bulletin outlining the potential effects of Katrina, based on the National Hurricane Center's 7 a.m. forecast: Katrina then was a Category 5 with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 190 mph.
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer," he wrote. "At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.
"Airborne debris will be widespread, and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles," he wrote. "Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons, pets, and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck."
"That call for action is cited as a primary reason why people finally left," Uccellini said.
katrina_gif.gifExample of new computer visualization techniques shows Hurricane Katrina moving ashore on Aug. 29, 2005. NOAA
But he added that it also is an example of the weakness of the Katrina-era forecasts. During the next 24 hours, Katrina had pulled cooler waters from the depths of the Gulf that helped cause it to weaken to Category 3 wind strength. It turned out that surge - and in New Orleans, the ability of surge to get beyond poorly designed levees and floodwalls - was a greater threat than wind.
Today, the weather service's forecast and communication tools will help meteorologists better understand the effects of the deep, warm water "loop current" that breaks off the Gulf Stream and can sometimes float in front of a hurricane, as it did during Katrina, creating a condition called "rapid intensification," and also when the cooler water pulled up by that strong hurricane will lead to its rapid decline, as also occurred during Katrina.
NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, assisted by post-Katrina funding, set goals for forecasters to improve the accuracy of five-day forecasts and eventually to increase the length of such forecasts to seven days. The path forecasts have met their goals, but NOAA officials agreed that efforts to improve intensity forecasts have been less successful.
While intensity forecasts have seen a 10 percent improvement during the past three years, National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb warned in a forecast science seminar later Tuesday that those years have seen fewer storms and no major hurricanes, which still raises questions about the accuracy of forecast models to predict rapid intensification accurately.
Uccellini said Congressional funding also had dramatically increased the computer capability of forecasters, who need the power of the world's fastest computers to turn data captured from NOAA and Air Force Reserve airplanes, buoys and satellites into more accurate forecast models.
The computer capacity has increased from 4.4 teraflops, equivalent to 4.4 trillion calculations per second, to 776 teraflops today, with improvements on schedule to reach 2800 teraflops per day by the end of 2016, he said.
Similar improvements in the satellites will allow the monitoring of hurricanes at a resolution of a third of a mile from space, and also allow the instruments to take measurements once a minute, rather than the once every 15 or 30 minutes.
And instead of a half dozen instruments, the new GOES-R satellites will carry 16 different sensors, allowing forecasters to capture cloud-to-cloud lightning flashes in a hurricane that are believed to indicate the location of potential tornadoes, said Steve Goodman, a scientist with NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, during the science seminar.
http://www.nola.com/katrina/index.ssf/2 ... rt_m-rpt-1
Just to finish up a point on the discussion about the new graphical GFDL seasonal model, the link below shows the enhancements the NHC has made since fateful 2005:
1) Average 24 hour forecast error has gone down to 44 miles on either side vs. 55 miles that was the standard in 2005 which is a drastic improvement in 10 years IMHO.
2) New satellites either already positioned high above the Earth or planned for launch in 2016 and 2017 that are and will provide a greater quantity of the data that is fed into computer models to better predict how a hurricane is moving and even the potential for tornadoes forming in their northeastern quadrants at landfall.
3) A new emphasis in issuing public forecasts on the effects of hurricanes that led limiting the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale to wind conditions and the unveiling this year of test storm surge watch and warning messages, backed up by brightly-colored maps that show the potential for surge waters to be 3, 6, 9 and 12 feet above ground level.
This is the full article, and if you click the link, check out the new 3-D visualization technique showing Katrina in 3-D including inland.
The full story:
The 2005 hurricane season, featuring Hurricanes Katrina and Rita among a record 28 total storms that killed more than 4,000 and caused a record $160 billion or more in damage also sparked a dramatic improvement in hurricane forecasting techniques, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrator Kathryn Sullivan said Tuesday.
Speaking during a Washington, D.C., news conference, Sullivan and other NOAA officials said the improvements include:
•Dramatic improvements in forecasting the tracks of hurricanes, with the average error 24 hours from landfall improved to 44 miles on either side, compared to 55 miles in 2005.
•New satellites either already positioned high above the Earth or planned for launch in 2016 and 2017 that are and will provide a greater quantity of the data that is fed into computer models to better predict how a hurricane is moving and even the potential for tornadoes forming in their northeastern quadrants at landfall.
•A new emphasis in issuing public forecasts on the effects of hurricanes that led limiting the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale to wind conditions and the unveiling this year of test storm surge watch and warning messages, backed up by brightly-colored maps that show the potential for surge waters to be 3, 6, 9 and 12 feet above ground level.
The changes in strategy by NOAA's National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center have been matched by changes in attitude by forecasters, said NWS Director Louis Uccellini.
"Until the latter part of the 20th Century, many forecasters believed their jobs ended with the forecast," he said. "If you made a great forecast, you'd done your job."
Those days are over, he said. Today, forecasters are equally concerned that their forecasts are heeded by the public, he said, pointing to the graphic warnings issued by the Slidell office of the weather service in advance of Katrina as a prime example.
At 10:11 a.m. on Sunday, Aug. 28, meteorologist Robert Ricks, lead forecaster in the we put out a bulletin outlining the potential effects of Katrina, based on the National Hurricane Center's 7 a.m. forecast: Katrina then was a Category 5 with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 190 mph.
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer," he wrote. "At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.
"Airborne debris will be widespread, and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles," he wrote. "Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons, pets, and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck."
"That call for action is cited as a primary reason why people finally left," Uccellini said.
katrina_gif.gifExample of new computer visualization techniques shows Hurricane Katrina moving ashore on Aug. 29, 2005. NOAA
But he added that it also is an example of the weakness of the Katrina-era forecasts. During the next 24 hours, Katrina had pulled cooler waters from the depths of the Gulf that helped cause it to weaken to Category 3 wind strength. It turned out that surge - and in New Orleans, the ability of surge to get beyond poorly designed levees and floodwalls - was a greater threat than wind.
Today, the weather service's forecast and communication tools will help meteorologists better understand the effects of the deep, warm water "loop current" that breaks off the Gulf Stream and can sometimes float in front of a hurricane, as it did during Katrina, creating a condition called "rapid intensification," and also when the cooler water pulled up by that strong hurricane will lead to its rapid decline, as also occurred during Katrina.
NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, assisted by post-Katrina funding, set goals for forecasters to improve the accuracy of five-day forecasts and eventually to increase the length of such forecasts to seven days. The path forecasts have met their goals, but NOAA officials agreed that efforts to improve intensity forecasts have been less successful.
While intensity forecasts have seen a 10 percent improvement during the past three years, National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb warned in a forecast science seminar later Tuesday that those years have seen fewer storms and no major hurricanes, which still raises questions about the accuracy of forecast models to predict rapid intensification accurately.
Uccellini said Congressional funding also had dramatically increased the computer capability of forecasters, who need the power of the world's fastest computers to turn data captured from NOAA and Air Force Reserve airplanes, buoys and satellites into more accurate forecast models.
The computer capacity has increased from 4.4 teraflops, equivalent to 4.4 trillion calculations per second, to 776 teraflops today, with improvements on schedule to reach 2800 teraflops per day by the end of 2016, he said.
Similar improvements in the satellites will allow the monitoring of hurricanes at a resolution of a third of a mile from space, and also allow the instruments to take measurements once a minute, rather than the once every 15 or 30 minutes.
And instead of a half dozen instruments, the new GOES-R satellites will carry 16 different sensors, allowing forecasters to capture cloud-to-cloud lightning flashes in a hurricane that are believed to indicate the location of potential tornadoes, said Steve Goodman, a scientist with NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, during the science seminar.
http://www.nola.com/katrina/index.ssf/2 ... rt_m-rpt-1
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tatertawt24
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Excited about the satellite improvements! Imagine if we had had pictures every minute of Wilma on the night of the 19th.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ninel conde
Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion
Steve wrote:Kind of insane. I had no idea that the GFDL people were going for a seasonal run model. I've seen seasonal output modeling from other sources, but nothing quite like this. Who knows if it ends up being worth anything, but damn.
http://videos.nola.com/times-picayune/2 ... cart_river
FWIW, I only watched until October 27, and it mostly forms storms in the MDR/Central Atlantic, so I'm not buying that. But the progressive pattern across the US looks mostly legit for an El Nino year, although you know the pattern will block at some point.
Got to start somewhere but yeah you are right Steve a high to N will be present at some point.
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WPBWeather
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Re:
ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion
Yes it is 384hrs out but I have not seen waves like this in the MDR in a while. So far following the narrative put out by the CFS quite well.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Re:
WPBWeather wrote:ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
What I'm still amazed of is how Florida hasn't had a hurricane strike in about 10 years!(since Wilma)
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northjaxpro
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I consider it a tremendous blessing to tell you the truth. I know our luck here across the state will run out eventually, but just take the time and appreciate that we have not been impacted by a major strike in nearly 10 years!!.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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TheStormExpert
Re:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:
I consider it a tremendous blessing to tell you the truth. I know our luck here across the state will run out eventually, but just take the time and appreciate that we have not been impacted by a major strike in nearly 10 years!!.
Not even that just a minimal hurricane of Cat.1 strength at least. Yes we are very fortunate, and this streak is unprecedented. Of course the time will come when it finally ends, just hope not too soon.
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WPBWeather
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Re:
xcool22 wrote:maybe Larry C was rite after all about Atlantic .sorry
Can ANYONE think that with the type of hyperactivity in the Pacific the ATL will remain quiet... forever??? There is NO great weather wall folks. One slight shift in windflow and everything can change.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: Re:
WPBWeather wrote:ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
Why conditions have been horrible for the most part year after year, they can barely support a tropical storm much less a hurricane and major at that. I agree with ninel, I'm amazed that we have seen the likes of wilma, Katrina, Rita and Gustav in their prime. Probably won't see anything like that again for a long time, if ever, at least on the Atlantic side.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: Re:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:WPBWeather wrote:ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
Why conditions have been horrible for the most part year after year, they can barely support a tropical storm much less a hurricane and major at that. I agree with ninel, I'm amazed that we have seen the likes of wilma, Katrina, Rita and Gustav in their prime. Probably won't see anything like that again for a long time, if ever, at least on the Atlantic side.
That's a very ridiculous statement to make.
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WPBWeather
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Re: Re:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:WPBWeather wrote:ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
Why conditions have been horrible for the most part year after year, they can barely support a tropical storm much less a hurricane and major at that. I agree with ninel, I'm amazed that we have seen the likes of wilma, Katrina, Rita and Gustav in their prime. Probably won't see anything like that again for a long time, if ever, at least on the Atlantic side.
You can't be serious!? Your statement is very ill informed.
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tolakram
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion
Ok people, let's get back to model discussions and leave this for another thread please, thanks.
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ftolmsteen
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Re: Re:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:ninel conde wrote:its amazing to think a hurricane like that ever formed in the atlantic basin.
No, it's amazing many more haven't formed since Wilma!
"Why conditions have been horrible for the most part year after year, they can barely support a tropical storm much less a hurricane and major at that. I agree with ninel, I'm amazed that we have seen the likes of wilma, Katrina, Rita and Gustav in their prime. Probably won't see anything like that again for a long time, if ever, at least on the Atlantic side."
Classic troll posts and nothing more.
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