Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

Totally agree with his forecast thinking, areas to watch this season is the Caribbean, GOM and east coast US.

[blp]

Very interesting almost 16 minute video by Levi Cowan about how he sees the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season shaping up.+PDO may be a big factor,Caribbean,GOM,Off East U.S coast the hot spots.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... n-outlook/

Thanks for posting great video. He explains it very well. Looks to be an interesting season.

[Kingarabian]

Great video from Levi. Although I have to point out that the PDO is a lot warmer than any of which he listed in his analog comparisons.

[stormwise]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8[/youtube]
Interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8[/youtube]
Interesting.

The scary part is its close to my thinking and 2005 is one of my analog years with 2004, 1985 and 1992 which is where I come up with 18\11\7 with 195 ace. One thing that needs to be watched is if the MDR cools a bit or if the Northern part of the North atlantic warms and possibly the +PDO because that could make quite the difference between a near average season and a blockbuster

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Andrew92]

That is a good video and analysis, which I agree with for the most part. However, I would love to see the graphic he put up for 1985 and 1988, with the 1959 setup. I have an image myself that is lower quality from ESRL that looks like demonstrates nearly perfectly the profile he is suggesting. There was La Nina, a very warm PDO, and the Atlantic tripole was not favorable. Take a look:



-Andrew92

[Javlin]

Levi's video as usual is instructional for the viewer but seems to leave the door open for a higher ACE.The Seeds video I might fall more in line with just for the law of averages it's been awhile since anything significant has occurred and that door has to open sometime?So if it's not a full blown LaNina then is it Neutral??I thought some of the more active seasons happened in that scenario?

[lordkev]

The Seeds of Success video is pretty old at this point. It's from December.

[TheStormExpert]

Regardless, that second video(Seeds of Sucess) seems to want to make it seem like we are in for a hell of a season!(close to 2005 but not close enough) I really have to disagree with his thoughts, they are way too overboard! It seemed like pure hype.

[NDG]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8[/youtube]
Interesting.

That was a very bullish forecast to come up with all the way back in December when many factors are still to come into fruition like a -PDO among some, lol.

[Javlin]

Though the "Seeds" may be old and if you want to call it hype that's fine but law of averages does come into play.The consensus among the board and many of met community is that the Carib and GOM will be the action if there is any year.That combination can make the hound dog on the porch open an eye

[wxman57]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8
Interesting.

A bit overly dramatic, and incorrect in several areas. PDO is currently positive (warm), not negative, and current AMO is negative (cold), not positive. I'm seeing nothing to suggest ACE over 200 this season. However, I still say we need to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf for major hurricane activity this year.

[drezee]

I made a rough approximation of the Caribbean (10-20N, 62-85W) and retrieved NCEP Reanalysis SST data for all years back to 1948; March 2016 was the warmest on record, while April 2016 was the 2nd warmest on record (for their respective months):

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... Timeseries

Siker, I ran the data against one of my correlation algorithms versus ACE, majors, etc. There were some strong relationship between things like increase from March to April of greater than 0.5C and ACE. The highest correlation was temps greater than 27.1C for April and Major hurricanes. There were 6 years before 2016: 58-60, 66, 69, 05, and 10. They averaged 4.3 major hurricanes. Four seasons had at least 5....

[stormwise]

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
201503 1.49
201504 0.89
201505 0.30
201506 0.63
201507 1.18
201508 0.65
201509 0.82
example above pdo 2005.
PDO can erode not saying here it will but i wont be shocked if it does before the peak time in this storm season.

[drezee]

Very interesting almost 16 minute video by Levi Cowan about how he sees the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season shaping up.+PDO may be a big factor,Caribbean,GOM,Off East U.S coast the hot spots.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... n-outlook/

m
Good thoughts...scientifically flawed a bit. No Tri-pole on longer term reanalysis averages. You can't use analogs from the seventies...say you are mostly driving your forecast on SST....then use data that excludes 2 of your 5 analogs. I do like the logic though.

[drezee]

Another point: upper level moisture anomalies are more based on temperature than actual moisture...when air is cooler the same moisture has a higher humidity...if upper temps stay cooler during the heart of the season, then instability will be above average as well. That would be bad...

[Yellow Evan]

Good thoughts...scientifically flawed a bit. No Tri-pole on longer term reanalysis averages. You can't use analogs from the seventies...say you are mostly driving your forecast on SST....then use data that excludes 2 of your 5 analogs. I do like the logic though.

it's hard to find a very good SST match to this year, hence the why the analogs he brought up don't match fully. And right now we appear to be in a -Atlantic tripole for the reasons Levi explained.

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at all my analog seasons here are the ideas

2005: not much in the MDR but once things got farther west they bombed out in the GOM and Caribbean and like that year I do expect a few storms or hurricanes that form from frontal lows that aquire tropical characteristics and also the +PDO

2004: Had a similar pattern in the EPAC MDR but seemed to have a weaker Azores high than I'm expecting this year so this is a low end analog

1992: Had a weak La Nina and a warm EPAC MDR and also had screaming shear across the basin which relegated the MDR to almost nothing and Andrew was lucky to find a spot between ULLs which was unlucky for southern Dade county but also had that negative tripole which also stunted the MDR but am not expecting the shear levels to be as high as that year nor the negative tripole to be as negative

1988: Had 1 hurricane form in the MDR which was Helene but had a pretty good concentration of hurricanes in the GOM and Caribbean plus the negative tripole causing sinking air in the MDR for most of the season sans Helene but seems as though the EPAC MDR might have not been as warm which is a difference to this year

1985: Closest match to this year with not much going on in the MDR{Gloria didnt really get going until past 50W} due to the negative tripole causing the Azores high to be quite strong causing mostly sinking air in the MDR but the GOM, Caribbean and the east coast took the brunt of the hurricane activity and another thing to note is that the EPAC MDR was warm that year with a pretty stout La Nina

Based on this I believe that most of the activity will form or intensify west of 50 and could cause things to be quite dangerous in the Caribbean and GOM and maybe even the East Coast if some storms go north of the Islands

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

There is nothing similar to this year and 2004 and 2005. Former was El Nino and both were in +AMO eras.

With that said, I think 1984 is an underrated analog.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Based upon the best analog years I'd say the areas of Mainland North America most at risk for impacts are: Western Florida to Louisiana and Long Island to Nova Scotia.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to your local weather service's products.