2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS dropped it.

[NDG]

:uarrow: 18z GFS dropped it.

It drops it because it has a totally different sypnotic pattern over the eastern US, it has a ridge bridging across the gulf coast unlike previous runs so it buries the tropical wave into C.A.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't worry it will show another system impacting somebody in another 10-14 days, eventually it will get one right

[Hammy]

Don't worry it will show another system impacting somebody in another 10-14 days, eventually it will get one right

I quit paying attention to the GFS beyond a week out for this reason.

[WeathrMax99]

Don't worry it will show another system impacting somebody in another 10-14 days, eventually it will get one right

I quit paying attention to the GFS beyond a week out for this reason.

I disagree. I believe GFS has been well in the 5-7 day range -- preciscly what i use it for. But -- I work for the NHC

[WPBWeather]

Don't worry it will show another system impacting somebody in another 10-14 days, eventually it will get one right

I quit paying attention to the GFS beyond a week out for this reason.

I disagree. I believe GFS has been well in the 5-7 day range -- preciscly what i use it for. But -- I work for the NHC

Is that the National Homeopathic Committee? Sorry could not resist.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS 240 hours out appears to be deepining a storm as it enters the gulf.

[Kingarabian]

Super long range 00z GFS has what appears to be a hurricane going NOLA/Florida Panhandle area.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw that. 0ZGFS actually showed a landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Saturday night, July 2. The model run shows a strong tropical storm or possible minimal hurricane at landfall.

Watching this carefully to see if EURO and the other models sniff this out in the coming days. Should we see a trend of the other models getting on board with the GFS, then I will start to take notice. Plus, we are talking about one of our major models showing a tropical cyclone impacting the U.S. Gulf Coast on a major holiday weekend, and I am scheduled to be in New Orleans that very weekend. So, obviously I am hoping GFS is out in fantasy land with all of this.




UPDATE: This morning's 06Z GFS dropped the solution again. We will see if it pops back up on the 12Z run.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS brings the system back, but weaker than earlier runs and delays arrival a bit, and has it coming up into NE GOM and across North Florida early on July 4. (Hour 348) Tracking the fantasy GFS runs of course.

[northjaxpro]

All of this is long range granted, but considering the active early season action in June we have already had close to home in the GOM and off the Southeast Atlantic coast, I would not totally brush off and discount what the GFS is suggesting though. Just a little observation. Still have to keep an wary eye on this, especially with the upcoming July 4 holiday weekend.

[RL3AO]

I'll be leaving Florida and the NHC for the 4th of July weekend. This almost guarantees something will happen.

[chaser1]

Noticed the NAVGEM also showing a 1006mb low in the W. Caribbean at 174 hours from this a.m.'s 12Z run. Seems too early to match whatever the GFS seems to be picking up at the longer time frames.

[Agua]

Don't worry it will show another system impacting somebody in another 10-14 days, eventually it will get one right

I quit paying attention to the GFS beyond a week out for this reason.

I disagree. I believe GFS has been well in the 5-7 day range -- preciscly what i use it for. But -- I work for the NHC

Last I checked, a week had 7 days in it.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 240 hours has nothing in Western Caribbean.We continue to wait to see if Euro joins GFS or if not,then what GFS is more phanthom stuff.

[weathaguyry]

Does anybody know what the record earliest date for the "E" storm in the Atlantic was, I may start a new thread.

[Yellow Evan]

Emily 2005, July 11.

[RL3AO]

Yeah, I think from here on out its all 2005 with the earliest formed records.

[Extratropical94]

Yeah, I think from here on out its all 2005 with the earliest formed records.

Yes, and 2011 with Lee (#13, tied with 2005's Maria) and Nate (#15, tied with 2005's Ophelia).

[weathaguyry]

Ok, thanks!