2016 EPAC Season

[SeGaBob]

Who cares about the EPAC? ( Unless it's affecting land) If a Cat 3-5 forms it'll turn into everyone bashing the Atlantic for not producing such storms in a potentially La NIna season. Sorry but that's my opinion.

[Alyono]

the EPAC season can play a role in Atlantic activity. Get a bunch of EPAC storms and you'll see more shear over the Caribbean

so yes, we do need to care greatly about the EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

Who cares about the EPAC?

Just my opinion but since it produces hurricanes, and that's what I enjoy doing-tracking hurricanes.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS at the end of it's run

[SeGaBob]

Who cares about the EPAC?

Just my opinion but since it produces hurricanes, and that's what I enjoy doing-tracking hurricanes.

I do too, just wished it would be someplace different for a change.

[TheAustinMan]

Graphed the intensity of the system from on the last few runs based on the GFS' output to TropicalTidbits.com. The latest run, the 18Z June 29, appears in red. Dates are on the bottom.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form in this area in a couple of days, and
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical
depression to develop over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Who cares about the EPAC?

Just my opinion but since it produces hurricanes, and that's what I enjoy doing-tracking hurricanes.

I do too, just wished it would be someplace different for a change.

I mean there were plenty of majors in the Atlantic from 1995-2012, so the past few years have been the EPAC turns if anything.

Good news is I think that may change once September rolls around where the activity may be conducive in the Atlantic again.

[tolakram]

Who cares about the EPAC? ( Unless it's affecting land) If a Cat 3-5 forms it'll turn into everyone bashing the Atlantic for not producing such storms in a potentially La NIna season. Sorry but that's my opinion.

Sorry Bob, but why would you come here to a thread you don't care about and share your opinion?

[cycloneye]

Plenty of convection going on in the extreme Eastern Pacific.Invest may be up in the next 12-24 hours.

[Alyono]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

[stormwise]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Was just looking over the GFS before your post, i was just thinking is this one of the storms CFSv2 ens was sending into Hawaii posted in this thread a week or so back. It had a hit and another storm following on.

[Kingarabian]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Don't know if the GFS has the right SST values near 18N140W. Waters are still near 27C. Need at least 28C.

[Kingarabian]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Was just looking over the GFS before your post, i was just thinking is this one of the storms CFSv2 ens was sending into Hawaii posted in this thread a week or so back. It had a hit and another storm following on.

I remember that post.

[Yellow Evan]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Was just looking over the GFS before your post, i was just thinking is this one of the storms CFSv2 ens was sending into Hawaii posted in this thread a week or so back. It had a hit and another storm following on.

Long range CFS has a habit of sending stuff near Hawaii. Most runs I look at on Weatherbell have at least one of its ensemble members moving a storm directly over the islands.

[Alyono]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Don't know if the GFS has the right SST values near 18N140W. Waters are still near 27C. Need at least 28C.

27 is fine. Really only need 26, unless tropopause temps are cooler than normal. if that's the case, you can get development over much lower. See Alex

That said, 27C at 18/140? WOW! That's like 2C above normal

[Yellow Evan]

the first of many model forecasts into Hawaii...

Don't know if the GFS has the right SST values near 18N140W. Waters are still near 27C. Need at least 28C.

27C would work for a Cat 1/2/3 hurricane passing close to the island if the Great Hawaiian Shear was low.

[stormwise]

What if its a annular hurricane 24c is more than adequate.?

[gatorcane]

The EPAC does appear it is going to crank out at least one (potentially quite strong) long-tracker and perhaps multiple storms over the next two weeks. Should see some good ACE.

[euro6208]

Seems like the EPAC is going to be active with a potential Cat 5 and many other systems. I love these fishes.

Saw that GFS run after my hiatus that shows a Hawaii landfall...Interesting...