2019 EPAC season

[NDG]

EPAC YTD ACE is now up to average, for now.

[Kingarabian]

Lol.

[cycloneye]

I dont know about anyone else who follows this basin but I am dissapointed at how it has been performing with only Barbara the powerhouse so far.ACE is not what was expected especially I was in the believe that Erick and Flossie would get plenty of ACE but did not occured.Let's see what the rest of the season brings to see if it improves.

[Ntxw]

It has been thus far about an average season by all numerical metrics (ACE, names, storm days, majors) which for the EPAC normal is subpar compared to the decadal trend. Erick did well for a time, but Flossie really underperformed.

[hurricanes1234]

Lol.

https://i.imgur.com/sNImavn.jpg

That's just about the most pitiful EPAC/CPAC train of storms I've ever seen.


Everything just looks like random, shapeless swirls of foam in a coffee cup. Consistent with most of the storms this season has produced thus far.

[Yellow Evan]

Playing devils advocate here, we have had four hurricanes and two majors. That’s not particularly quantity heavy, and seven named storms is right at long term norms. Of course, this pales in comparison of the last five years but historically the last five years were the most insanely busy time in recorded basin history so that’s not saying that much.

[dexterlabio]

Lol.

https://i.imgur.com/sNImavn.jpg

To be fair though, this was taken when Eric and Flossie are decaying...if the picture was taken a few days ago when the two were still canes, there would be a very different caption.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS continues to show Henriette, and now show Ivo, forming by mid August. If this verifies and we also get two more systems in the last week of August, we could quickly catch up to 2016:

PC - Weathermodels.com

[hurricanes1234]

Keyword: if

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has the EPAC and CPAC getting active fairly soon, beginning in 72 hours:



GFS as well:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico toward the end of
the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
favorable for the development of this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues recent model trends and shows a big activity burst over the EPAC in about 5 days.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico toward the end of
the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for the development of this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the development of this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the development of this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, within a couple
of hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
within a couple of hundred miles of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Recent model runs have been pretty lousy.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms continues
along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. A low pressure area is forecast to form within
this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue onshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
eastern Mexico tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to
gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Recent model runs have been pretty lousy.

They really have. ECMWF has nothing from either two disturbances IIRC.